Discussion of Braves 2018 Offseason plans

Tapate50 said:
Didn't know where else to put this but some Braves Prospect\Player projections from the guys over at FGs were bandied about in a chat, and positively !

Said Acuna projects to a 2 WAR player as a 20 year old.

And the projection systems seem to think the mean HR totals for Albies will be 15-20!

I was shocked by both.

That'd be good reason to lock up OZ.
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Both seem perfectly logical to me.

The new super ball used in MLB helps guys with fringe power like Albies tremendously in the HR department.
 
Enscheff said:
Both seem perfectly logical to me.

The new super ball used in MLB helps guys with fringe power like Albies tremendously in the HR department.
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Yup. People still get hung up on homerun totals when they are currently way inflated compared to what most people have considered 'good' for most of their lives. Just as people were accustomed to needing an 850 OPS to be a good hitter in the steroid era and then pitching coming back super strong and a high 700's was considered good in some places. People have to adjust their perception on what is the current reality of mlb production. Double digit homers is no longer something to be proud of for players with fringe power. Markakis has 21 of them over the last 2 years so that should tell you all you need to know.
 
said for a while Albies could be a Jose Ramirez type. maybe slightly less power than Ramirez showed last year.
 
thewupk said:
Yup. People still get hung up on homerun totals when they are currently way inflated compared to what most people have considered 'good' for most of their lives. Just as people were accustomed to needing an 850 OPS to be a good hitter in the steroid era and then pitching coming back super strong and a high 700's was considered good in some places. People have to adjust their perception on what is the current reality of mlb production. Double digit homers is no longer something to be proud of for players with fringe power. Markakis has 21 of them over the last 2 years so that should tell you all you need to know.
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I still think it matters from a Team perspective. It's pretty rare that a Team makes the playoffs, and rarer still that they do anything when they get there, if they are significantly below league average for Team HR power. You can look it up. I have. Last year in the AL of the 5 Teams to make the playoffs: The Yankees led the league with 241, the Astros were second with 238, Cleveland was right above average with 212, Minnesota was right below average with 206 and Boston was dead last in the AL with 168 (but still ahead of the Braves 165). League average was 211.

In the NL it broke down like this: The Cubs were 3rd in the league and had 223, Dodgers 221, Diamondbacks 220, GNats 215, Rockies 192. League average was 196.

So yes, the HR numbers were inflated, but once again the best teams were at least league average or better in Team HR.

The real outlier from last year was Boston. They were the second best pitching in the league behind Cleveland but their offense was nothing special.

In a typical year, historically over the last 25 years, team average for HR is about ~150. If you look at the current and projected Braves team: Freeman (30-40), Catching (15-25), Albies (10-15), Swanson (10), 3B (10-15), Markakis (5-10), Inciarte (10), LF (20-25), Bench (10-15) gives you a team projection of about 160 team HR for 2018 assuming top end HR production for everybody. So, unless you believe that the pitching staff is going to be one of the best in baseball (and I don't), then statistically and historically, this isn't going to be a team that competes for anything. As everyone knows RF and 3B are serious problems for the Braves.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I still think it matters from a Team perspective. It's pretty rare that a Team makes the playoffs, and rarer still that they do anything when they get there, if they are significantly below league average for Team HR power. You can look it up. I have. Last year in the AL of the 5 Teams to make the playoffs: The Yankees led the league with 241, the Astros were second with 238, Cleveland was right above average with 212, Minnesota was right below average with 206 and Boston was dead last in the AL with 168 (but still ahead of the Braves 165). League average was 211.

In the NL it broke down like this: The Cubs were 3rd in the league and had 223, Dodgers 221, Diamondbacks 220, GNats 215, Rockies 192. League average was 196.

So yes, the HR numbers were inflated, but once again the best teams were at least league average or better in Team HR.

The real outlier from last year was Boston. They were the second best pitching in the league behind Cleveland but their offense was nothing special.

In a typical year, historically over the last 25 years, team average for HR is about ~150. If you look at the current and projected Braves team: Freeman (30-40), Catching (15-25), Albies (10-15), Swanson (10), 3B (10-15), Markakis (5-10), Inciarte (10), LF (20-25), Bench (10-15) gives you a team projection of about 160 team HR for 2018 assuming top end HR production for everybody. So, unless you believe that the pitching staff is going to be one of the best in baseball (and I don't), then statistically and historically, this isn't going to be a team that competes for anything. As everyone knows RF and 3B are serious problems for the Braves.
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Personally, with a little rebound from Dansbo- I think his projected total is a bit low.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
In a typical year, historically over the last 25 years, team average for HR is about ~150. If you look at the current and projected Braves team: Freeman (30-40), Catching (15-25), Albies (10-15), Swanson (10), 3B (10-15), Markakis (5-10), Inciarte (10), LF (20-25), Bench (10-15) gives you a team projection of about 160 team HR for 2018 assuming top end HR production for everybody. So, unless you believe that the pitching staff is going to be one of the best in baseball (and I don't), then statistically and historically, this isn't going to be a team that competes for anything. As everyone knows RF and 3B are serious problems for the Braves.
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i called boston's offense regressing massively from 16 to 17 and was shut down by a few here so..
 
Tapate50 said:
Personally, with a little rebound from Dansbo- I think his projected total is a bit low.
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Maybe. But he's not hitting 30. And while that isn't necessary, it's only not IF other positions such as RF and 3B play to more traditional norms. It's roster construction. That's why I think WAR is a useful way to rate players but must also be combined with a view into overall roster construction.

Let's say you populate the OF (LF, CF, RF) with 3 Identical Inciarte's who each provide you 3 WAR seasons. Sounds like that would be a pretty good OF. However, those OF bring you 10 HR each or a total of 30. That puts a tremendous amount of pressure on roster creation for the other positions (1, 2, 3, C, SS) to provide a minimum of 120 HR (and average of 24 per position) just to reach the historic league average of about 150. So, go get 5 Kemp equivalents, you say? Not at all. HR by itself cannot be the deciding factor. But it has to be a factor because the last 25 years, statistically, says that if you aren't league average or better in the team HR department you aren't winning anything.

Are there exceptions? A few. San Francisco has done it a couple of times (their park and their division help). KC won a WS (hit 139 HR with a league average of 176), and also lost a WS (95 in average of 144) as a WC entrant. But it's pretty unusual and can't be seen as anything but a long shot.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I still think it matters from a Team perspective. It's pretty rare that a Team makes the playoffs, and rarer still that they do anything when they get there, if they are significantly below league average for Team HR power. You can look it up. I have. Last year in the AL of the 5 Teams to make the playoffs: The Yankees led the league with 241, the Astros were second with 238, Cleveland was right above average with 212, Minnesota was right below average with 206 and Boston was dead last in the AL with 168 (but still ahead of the Braves 165). League average was 211.

In the NL it broke down like this: The Cubs were 3rd in the league and had 223, Dodgers 221, Diamondbacks 220, GNats 215, Rockies 192. League average was 196.

So yes, the HR numbers were inflated, but once again the best teams were at least league average or better in Team HR.

The real outlier from last year was Boston. They were the second best pitching in the league behind Cleveland but their offense was nothing special.

In a typical year, historically over the last 25 years, team average for HR is about ~150. If you look at the current and projected Braves team: Freeman (30-40), Catching (15-25), Albies (10-15), Swanson (10), 3B (10-15), Markakis (5-10), Inciarte (10), LF (20-25), Bench (10-15) gives you a team projection of about 160 team HR for 2018 assuming top end HR production for everybody. So, unless you believe that the pitching staff is going to be one of the best in baseball (and I don't), then statistically and historically, this isn't going to be a team that competes for anything. As everyone knows RF and 3B are serious problems for the Braves.
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Yes, power is the easiest way to having a good offense in baseball. Not necessary but is the easiest way. But someone like Albies having 15-20 homers in 2018 is a lot different than Albies having 15-20 homers in 2010 for example.

Al
 
thewupk said:
Yes, power is the easiest way to having a good offense in baseball. Not necessary but is the easiest way. But someone like Albies having 15-20 homers in 2018 is a lot different than Albies having 15-20 homers in 2010 for example.

Al
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No question. But even if HR totals are inflated the importance of being somewhere near or above the league average mark hasn't changed. So, having Albies hit 15-20 HR in 2018 vs the same Albies hitting 10-15 in 2010 has equivalence. Having an Albies hit 10-15 in 2010 and also the same Albies hit 10-15 in 2018 isn't.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
No question. But even if HR totals are inflated the importance of being somewhere near or above the league average mark hasn't changed. So, having Albies hit 15-20 HR in 2018 vs the same Albies hitting 10-15 in 2010 has equivalence. Having an Albies hit 10-15 in 2010 and also the same Albies hit 10-15 in 2018 isn't.
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I agree. My main point was that Albies hitting close to 20 homers would inflate some peoples perception of his.

The average team is going to be hitting around 200 homers per year these days.
 
thewupk said:
I agree. My main point was that Albies hitting close to 20 homers would inflate some peoples perception of his.

The average team is going to be hitting around 200 homers per year these days.
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I agree. But I think the average will normalize a bit. I expect the next big thing in baseball will be sinkerballers, a resurgence of the split/forkball and any other pitch designed to get the ball on the ground. Launch angle (and arguably the ball construction) plus new park construction have changed the total HR amounts. Organizations will react by trying to counter those trend by emphasizing different trends.

Right now, with pitching, your seeing a lot of emphasis placed on pitch velocity increases, K numbers and BB numbers. Teams want power arms so they can K hitters and live in the confines of a more well defined strike zone. Hitters don't care if they K as long as their OPS is good. Pitchers don't want to BB guys because the occurrence of HR has changed the chance that a BB scores.

The rise of the HR in baseball has also severely devalued the stolen base over the last 25 years. What smart manager is going to let a guy try to steal when he's got several 30-50 HR per year monsters stacked up behind?
 
I think we may be in a good position to work on a 3 team trade with the Yankees and Pirates.

The Yankees are supposedly offering Frazier and Andujar in trade talks with the Pirates trade for Cole. One or both of those guys could interest us to a degree. The Pirates may not have a need for Frazier with Marte, Polanco, and Meadows in the OF (assuming Cutch is traded). They could also be looking to trade one of Marte or Polanco after down years and acquire the cheaper Frazier to team up with Meadows and one of Polanco/Marte.

If the Pirates were to acquire Tyler Wade they could flip Josh Harrison. He could be a good option for us as well as he is signed to a below market deal, has options if he falters, and can play multiple positions which supposedly AA values.
 
A quick write up on Gohara's stuff on FG:

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/quick-looks-luiz-gohara-walker-buehler/

This guy draws pretty much the same conclusions we already know about Gohara, and is as equally flummoxed by his slider as I am.

It was nice to be reminded of what it looks like to watch Gohara blow that 97 MPH riser past a hitter above the belt.

I don't think the video of the change was actually a change though. Pretty sure that was a cement mixer hanging slider.
 
50PoundHead said:
Don't know enough about the other deals, but I highly doubt the Twins would deal Rosario even though he's a likely candidate for a regress. If you could get Javier for Teheran straight-up, it might make better sense for both sides although I think the Braves would have to pay part of Teheran's salary to get that deal done. The writer seems to think that the Twins will keep Lewis at SS and he may be moving to the OF. Probably a stud wherever he plays.
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Javier's not moving, though...probably the second least movable player in the farm system behind Lewis.
 
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