Do We Improve or Not in the Second Half?

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
Break out your crystal balls and tell us why you think the team's record after the All-Star break will be better, worse or the same?

My take is we have four areas of likely improvement and two areas of likely regression.

Areas of likely improvement:

1) Second. Having La Stella there will give us much better production.

2) Heyward. Underperformed his career results in the first half, likely to rebound.

3) Minor. Same as Heyward

4) CJ. He's not as good as he appeared to be in 2013. But not as bad as he has been so far this year.

Areas of likely regression:

1) Harang. Not likely to be as huge in the second half.

2) Catcher. Gattis was having a great first half before the injury. Even without the injury some regression was likely. The injury adds to the downside risk.

Net it would seem we are likely to improve. But you have to factor in injuries that will crop up in the second half. Of course every team will have injuries in the second half. The question is whether ours will be worse or test our depth more severely. I think our depth in AAA is above average. Our bench depth at the major league level is below average. On balance, I don't see us as more vulnerable to injury risk than other teams.

Bottom line: Likely to show some improvement in the second half.
 
I agree. I think we do improve.

Just not sure it's enough. And we have a lot of guys locked in for multiple years. Just not sure where we can improve.

Biting the bullet on Uggla might give us a bench piece that actually works....but not sure that would even be a win's difference.
 
This team very much reminds me of the 2007 team, in results if not in makeup. That team started out hot, lost all of it's games above .500, and then just floated along the rest of the way, never going below .500 the entire season but only finishing with 84 wins. I don't think this team is truly capable of a sustained winning streak, and it's a bit of an enigma, because individually, outside of BJ, there really isn't a *bad* player on this team. You look at their numbers and they are all decent. But collectively they can't score enough runs consistently enough to overcome the not-as-good pitching we've had for much of the season. The pitching is also somewhat streaky. So all in all it's just a streaky team that amounts to a very medicore team. I predict 84 wins again, and 6 games out of the division. But the team is so streaky that if they get a good streak at the end they might be able to get to 90 wins.
 
In most of our good seasons we've had streaks of 40 or 50 games. Think something like 34-17. But those are also not followed up by 1-5's, and 0-7's. Last year we had a 28-8 streak.
 
Nerfherders said:
In most of our good seasons we've had streaks of 40 or 50 games. Think something like 34-17. But those are also not followed up by 1-5's, and 0-7's. Last year we had a 28-8 streak.
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I see what you mean. Consistent, good play that leads to a good run in the standings. I agree. I'm not sure if they can do it. The only shot they have is to go with Heyward, JUp, Freeman as 1-2-3. We're not going to see consistency with BJ at 1 and Simmons at 2.
 
I'm pretty dour about this team. They don't appear to be very good and its pretty optimistic to think they'll suddenly start hitting. The talk of Heyward and CJ reminds me of what was a constant refrain last year: "if Uggla and BJ just approach their career numbers think about how good we'll be". Why do people thin Heyward and CJ will suddenly get better? It is what it is.
 
The only thing id asterisk on that list is the Gattis remark. Improvement seems real, and do we really know what his ceiling is at this point? As in, maybe the first half was status quo?
 
I think this team has shown what it is: a 90ish win team that will challenge for a postseason slot. For every possibility for improvement, there is another the opposite way. Minor will probably be better, but Teheran will probably be worse. Gattis will come off the DL, but someone else will likely get hurt. I think you get the point.

Wren has no real way to improve this team in any meaningful way at the deadline (no money, very few legit prospects), so it would be silly to expect this team to suddenly become anything more than the 90 win team it was when the year started.
 
Enscheff said:
I think this team has shown what it is: a 90ish win team that will challenge for a postseason slot. For every possibility for improvement, there is another the opposite way. Minor will probably be better, but Teheran will probably be worse. Gattis will come off the DL, but someone else will likely get hurt. I think you get the point.

Wren has no real way to improve this team in any meaningful way at the deadline (no money, very few legit prospects), so it would be silly to expect this team to suddenly become anything more than the 90 win team it was when the year started.
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I agree. Our main hope for something special is Serendipity. You can't trade for him or sign him to a big contract. But he makes a huge difference each year for whichever team he decides to play for. He is the ultimate free agent, in multiple senses of the word.
 
I'm just not sold that we'll be getting the same Gattis when he comes back. I guess that's better than no Gattis though.
 
1) White Bear's are hungrier and more ferocious coming out of hibernation periods.

2) We need a quality lefty reliever bad, and a bat or two (which IMO could come internally) for the bench and that could be difference between being a division player in the final week of the season or one vying for a wild card berth or no playoffs at all. These are the small moves that may impact a game here and there and may be the difference. While I am not in love with this team and don't think we're great, we have trouble consistently manufacturing runs, therefore having a strong bullpen and a guy that can get a hit late in games is paramount. We've seen it all too often, our starting pitching gives us a chance to win, and we've given away too many games with Avilan and Carpenter late in games. Fix that with additional depth to go along with Kimbrel, Walden, Simmons. I have no confidence with any of the bats on the bench, and with all these close games, we need another guy that come up with a clutch hit or 2.
 
I think this schedule against sub par teams is just what we needed. It's going to boost our confidence and give us a chance to work on some things for when we start playing the big boys again.

We're going to improve, because Justin isn't exclusive to months beginning with an A. BJ is NOT as bad as he was last year... Simmons is showing signs of life. Heyward is the key. A huge second half from him and we're almost guaranteed to at least make the playoffs. If CJ continues the BABIPing he'll be satisfactory. I still cringe at all the awful strikeouts he piles up. TLS will go under the radar and continue to contribute small stuff consistently, and Gattis being healthy of course is going to be needed. Then of course, we need a huge Lairdership performance from Gerald the 2nd half to rally the troops.
 
We are +12 in run differential implying a record of 49-46 vs. an actual record of 52-43. I think we are somewhere in there with obviously offense as the big detriment. pythag/actual implies a 84-88 win team, I would predict somewhere between 85-89
 
gilesfan said:
We are +12 in run differential implying a record of 49-46 vs. an actual record of 52-43. I think we are somewhere in there with obviously offense as the big detriment. pythag/actual implies a 84-88 win team, I would predict somewhere between 85-89
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I think the pitchers are where they should be, except for Minor and Avilan. I hope Minor gets straightened out and I think Avilan must and will be replaced.

Hitting wise, I see a lot of room for improvement. Heyward, CJ, Simmons, Mel, and the Star everyday should all improve. Bench cannot be any worse.

I said at the beginning of June that I expected the team would average 1 run/game more for the last two-thirds. For April/May, we averaged 3.4. For June/July, we've averaged 4.3. And I don't think we're done improving.
 
About where I thought we'd be in terms of W/L, but it's always interesting to see how we got to where we are. Lots of things that could go either way. I won't be surprised if we win the division and I won't be surprised if we don't.
 
Every year it's the same thing with us. We very easily could turn the corner and improve a good deal. But that would require our talented players to stop underachieving. But a full 2nd half with La Stella in the lineup and an improved bullpen is going to help a lot. I also expect more consistency from Santana and Minor to get back on track.

I guess to me....our season comes down to Minor and Heyward. If Minor gets back on track and Heyward learns how to hit we'll win the division. But we also have to dump Uggla and add a piece to the bench. He's wasting a roster spot.
 
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