DOB: Braves offseason about to get a lot busier. - Gamel released.

NYCBrave said:
Well his OPS and batting average have dropped every single year, there is no discounting that. His slugging has remained the same, but his OBP has dropped every year.
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A couple of things. Batting average will always fluctuate due to BABIP. It's not something you can really control. You can generally control how much power you have and how much you walk. Raw stats like OBP and OPS. Those will drop if your batting average drops. It's all connected that way. But Mac's isolated slugging and isolated OBP (which is taking batting average out of it) has remained consistent. That's really what you are looking for.

Not to mention that raw numbers aren't the greatest thing to look at as the league shifts to a more pitcher dominant league. That's what league/park adjusted stats like wrc+ and ops+ are much better to look at. And that has been extremely consistent. If Mac goes to Texas next year I would expect his raw numbers to take a jump due to the park. But I would bet his overall numbers would leave him around a 120 wrc+. He is going to be a great fit for an AL team.
 
Ted Lilly has fixed his nerve issue per his agent. He is a Lefty, and won't cost much on a one year dice roll. As unappetizing as that is, I bet our move is along those lines.
 
Tapate50 said:
Ted Lilly has fixed his nerve issue per his agent. He is a Lefty, and won't cost much on a one year dice roll. As unappetizing as that is, I bet our move is along those lines.
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Possible, but think that ship has sailed. Lilly is somebody Schuerholz had tried to get before, but that was obviously some years back. Based on statements that Wren has made, and reading b/tw the lines, they're going for something more. We all know that arb-eligible players are going to get their salary increases, but think in terms of all of McCann, Hudson and Maholm off the books. That will leave room for a higher end starter.
 
David O'Brien ‏@ajcbraves 19h
#Braves not seeking high risk/reward, need reliability if add arm. RT @dmftDC: @ajcbraves What about Josh Johnson? cheap w/ high reward?

DOB also thinks Lohse is a probable target.

Lohse is looking a bit more attractive now, given his contract $11M in 2014 and 2015 and the inflation that seems to be occurring in the market for starting pitching. I wonder who the Brewers would want. Aramis Ramirez is going to be gone in a year or two. So maybe one of Kubitza/Salcedo. In addition to that, maybe one starting pitcher prospect. Someone along the lines of Cody Martin or Aaron Northcraft.

Question: Would we be better off with Hudson on a 2 year deal for 11M/year rather than a trade for Lohse along those lines? I think so.
 
nsacpi said:
David O'Brien ‏@ajcbraves 19h

#Braves not seeking high risk/reward, need reliability if add arm. RT @dmftDC: @ajcbraves What about Josh Johnson? cheap w/ high reward?

DOB also thinks Lohse is a probable target.

Lohse is looking a bit more attractive now, given his contract $11M in 2014 and 2015 and the inflation that seems to be occurring in the market for starting pitching. I wonder who the Brewers would want. Aramis Ramirez is going to be gone in a year or two. So maybe one of Kubitza/Salcedo. In addition to that, maybe one starting pitcher prospect. Someone along the lines of Cody Martin or Aaron Northcraft.

Question: Would we be better off with Hudson on a 2 year deal for 11M/year rather than a trade for Lohse along those lines? I think so.
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If that's all it takes then no question Lohse is a better option.

While I disagree that JJ wouldn't be an excellent risk/reward target, at least we now know what they are looking for so the speculation can be narrowed a bit.
 
Lohse is interesting and either Kubitza/Salcedo would not be a huge loss but that would mean that CJ has to be here for another couple of years while the organization comes up with a long term solution.
 
thethe said:
Lohse is interesting and either Kubitza/Salcedo would not be a huge loss but that would mean that CJ has to be here for another couple of years while the organization comes up with a long term solution.
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Between La Stella, Pastornicky, Kubitza, Salcedo and a little bit further down the line Peraza, we have some in-house options for second and third. CJ is under team control for 3 more seasons. So giving up one of Kubitza/Salcedo does not strike me as a big deal. Ditto one of Martin/Northcraft given our surplus of near-major league ready starting pitching (Wood, Hale, Gilmartin, Graham, Thomas, Schlosser). We really won't be needing all of those guys, though there is always the question of which ones will develop further and which ones won't.

Btw I don't view Lohse as superior to Hudson. My preference between the two would be to pay Hudson a similar amount and not give up any prospects. Oh and one more thing, I think Josh Johnson is a better choice (especially if we can get him on a one-year deal) than either Lohse or Hudson, but per DOB's tweet the Braves seem to be leaning away from high risk/high reward guys.
 
Only reason I say Lohse over Huddy is because I'm not sure Hiuddy comes back strong at his age from that injury. Obviously its not an arm injury but you still need your legs to pitch.
 
thewupk said:
A couple of things. Batting average will always fluctuate due to BABIP. It's not something you can really control. You can generally control how much power you have and how much you walk. Raw stats like OBP and OPS. Those will drop if your batting average drops. It's all connected that way. But Mac's isolated slugging and isolated OBP (which is taking batting average out of it) has remained consistent. That's really what you are looking for.

Not to mention that raw numbers aren't the greatest thing to look at as the league shifts to a more pitcher dominant league. That's what league/park adjusted stats like wrc+ and ops+ are much better to look at. And that has been extremely consistent. If Mac goes to Texas next year I would expect his raw numbers to take a jump due to the park. But I would bet his overall numbers would leave him around a 120 wrc+. He is going to be a great fit for an AL team.
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I understand about fluctuations, but when something is on a downward trend over 6/7 year period, you can't chalk that up to luck. Also, he hasn't played a full season since 2010.

Do I think he'll do poorly in Texas? Not at all, I'm sure he'll thrive there. But that wasn't the argument I was making.
 
nsacpi said:
David O'Brien ‏@ajcbraves 19h
#Braves not seeking high risk/reward, need reliability if add arm. RT @dmftDC: @ajcbraves What about Josh Johnson? cheap w/ high reward?

DOB also thinks Lohse is a probable target.

Lohse is looking a bit more attractive now, given his contract $11M in 2014 and 2015 and the inflation that seems to be occurring in the market for starting pitching. I wonder who the Brewers would want. Aramis Ramirez is going to be gone in a year or two. So maybe one of Kubitza/Salcedo. In addition to that, maybe one starting pitcher prospect. Someone along the lines of Cody Martin or Aaron Northcraft.

Question: Would we be better off with Hudson on a 2 year deal for 11M/year rather than a trade for Lohse along those lines? I think so.
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Im pretty sure the Brewers could do a lot better than what you are up to offering.
 
To win in the playoffs you usually need your studs to be studs, not your reliable players to be reliable...if that even makes any sense. You need Big Papi to hit .700, or Beltran to go off like he did for the Astros, or Schilling and Johnson to thoroughly dominate other teams. Reliable players get you 90 wins, but in the postseason someone has to step up and be a stud. Sadly, the Braves had nobody step up this postseason.

A guy like Lohse or Hudson are not those types of guys. Adding a player like that isn't much better than sending out one of the young guys already on the roster.

Who cares if JJ only starts 15 games in 2014? If he is healthy and 5 of those starts are dominant starts in October that lead to a deep playoff run he was worth every penny.
 
Enscheff said:
To win in the playoffs you usually need your studs to be studs, not your reliable players to be reliable...if that even makes any sense. You need Big Papi to hit .700, or Beltran to go off like he did for the Astros, or Schilling and Johnson to thoroughly dominate other teams. Reliable players get you 90 wins, but in the postseason someone has to step up and be a stud. Sadly, the Braves had nobody step up this postseason.

A guy like Lohse or Hudson are not those types of guys. Adding a player like that isn't much better than sending out one of the young guys already on the roster.

Who cares if JJ only starts 15 games in 2014? If he is healthy and 5 of those starts are dominant starts in October that lead to a deep playoff run he was worth every penny.
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I agree with your point entirely. You need someone to dominate.
However, I wouldn't rule out that Teheran or Minor could develop to be "that guy" that dominates in the playoffs.
We would also need an offensive player to catch fire, and we didn't have that, either. And I'm not sure a guy like JUp ever will in that scenario, but we will see.
I wouldn't mind taking a risk on Johnson.
 
Pretty sure Minor was dominant in the postseason. The problem is the injury bug hit us at the end of the yr with Mac and Heyward. Our other high profile hitters went cold in October. And the Dodgers were simply a better team
 
Enscheff said:
To win in the playoffs you usually need your studs to be studs, not your reliable players to be reliable...if that even makes any sense. You need Big Papi to hit .700, or Beltran to go off like he did for the Astros, or Schilling and Johnson to thoroughly dominate other teams. Reliable players get you 90 wins, but in the postseason someone has to step up and be a stud. Sadly, the Braves had nobody step up this postseason.

A guy like Lohse or Hudson are not those types of guys. Adding a player like that isn't much better than sending out one of the young guys already on the roster.

Who cares if JJ only starts 15 games in 2014? If he is healthy and 5 of those starts are dominant starts in October that lead to a deep playoff run he was worth every penny.
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I would take Lohse only because I'm not sure what we are going to get out of Beachy next year.
 
thethe said:
I would take Lohse only because I'm not sure what we are going to get out of Beachy next year.
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We have insurance for Beachy in the form of Wood, Hale and Martin. With that kind of depth I would be more inclined to roll the dice on a Josh Johnson than go the safe route with Lohse.
 
Minor threw 6 1/3 or 6 2/3 of 1-run ball.

If thats not good, what is?

Regards to Lohse, i'd be cool with him depending on cost, obviously.
 
Carp said:
Pretty sure Minor was dominant in the postseason. The problem is the injury bug hit us at the end of the yr with Mac and Heyward. Our other high profile hitters went cold in October. And the Dodgers were simply a better team
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See, I think the problem was that Medlen, Teheran and Carpenter pitched like ****.
 
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