/facepalm
Donaldson in 2019
- Thread starter Enscheff
- Start date
/facepalm
Using the rough estimate that players are paid 80% of their market rate the last time through arbitration and Donaldson's $23M salary in 2018, that puts the AAV of his expected FA contract around $28M.
That falls almost exactly in line with the 5/140 prediction I have on the starting point for his bidding. I think the winning bid will be for 6 years worth a total of $150M+, and probably closer to $160M.
6/160 is a lot of coin for a mid-market team, but Donaldson is the only mega contract the Braves have more than a 2% chance of signing.
That falls almost exactly in line with the 5/140 prediction I have on the starting point for his bidding. I think the winning bid will be for 6 years worth a total of $150M+, and probably closer to $160M.
6/160 is a lot of coin for a mid-market team, but Donaldson is the only mega contract the Braves have more than a 2% chance of signing.
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
Assuming he doesn't drop off this year and Riley doesn't look like the answer, 5/140 or 6/160 seems worth it. Swap an arm for a decent LF bat, keep cobbling something together at C, and feel good about your lineup until Freeman leaves in '21. That timeline probably fits nicely to move Donaldson to first base anyway.
Seems about right. The money should be there to sign Donaldson, sign Grandal, and trade for an average LFer.
The success of the Braves in 2019+ all hinges on building 80% (4 of 5 slots) of a 12+ WAR rotation (Top 10 in MLB) out of Teheran/Folty/Gohara/Newcomb/Wright/Soroka/Allard/Anderson. The 5th slot will likely be some version of McCarthy or Dickey every year, so that group needs to produce 4 guys who total 10+ WAR. That is definitely doable with the talent in that collection of arms.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
If a team gives Donaldson 6 years going into his age 33 season, they deserve to occupy last place for the next decade.
The number of years is completely inconsequential. This contract is going to cover the rest of Donaldson's useful career. He will likely produce ~15 WAR over the rest of his career.
Most teams will probably prefer to pay him 6/160 than 5/140.
Certainly not ideal but most FA deals for good players carry big downsides towards the end of their contracts. Donaldson likely makes up for it in the first half of his deal though wherever he signs.
Agreed - Trying to predict production of people in their mid 30s and later is fools errand.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Late-bloomers really get the short-end of the stick in the current climate. Donaldson is second only to Trout in WAR since he debut (43.8 to 36.2), amongst position players, yet I think he'll struggle to find suitors willing to reach for five or six years, especially if Machado reaches the free-agent market as well. It's too bad, because I'm a big fan of Donaldson.
I think he'll be reliably great, barring injury, for those first three years. But if you're paying him somewhere around the 6/$160-million Escheff has thrown out there, you almost have to treat it like you're paying $35–40-million AAV for the first three years, then $10–15-million AAV for the latter three. Would be tough for the Braves to swallow, either way—especially if they want to hold onto Freeman.
Almost all FA contracts use up their value in the first half of the deal, and then are underwater in the second half. It is a given when signing FAs, and is precisely why teams don't sign FAs to large deals until they are ready to compete.
The assumption is that the Braves push for 80 wins in 2018 and are ready for true WC contention in 2019...with Donaldson.
I fully anticipate AA being smart enough not to resign Freeman after his current deal expires, so 1B will be open for Donaldson to play there in the twilight years of his career.
I'd frontload the good years so it doesn't feel like it will hurt as bad when he declines. But your going to pay a ton regardless.
That's going to be tough with Freeman though. He will be entering his 32 year old season and is going to want the length of a contract that Donaldson will want next year. Assuming he doesn't decline through his prime he's going to be looking at a 40+ million per year at the rate these contracts are escalating. Of course the market may even be more ****ty for veterans than they are now so who knows what will happen.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Certainly—but my point remains regarding late-bloomers. If Donaldson were playing his age-27 season this year, as opposed to age-32, he'd likely be looking at AAV over $30 million and another 2-4 years of total length. That loss isn't really compensated in arbitration, even with a record-breaking single-season agreement. It is what it is, though—no team wants a Ryan Howard situation on their books.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
This is part of why the Braves should have, and still should, trade Freeman given a good enough return. Freeman's position has always been the final resting place of most declining FA.
Fair arguments. I'm just leery of that increased strikeout rate and his defense can only go in one direction. What he has done in the past is not of tremendous interest as those numbers were primarily aggregated during his prime years. If that bat slows just a bit and the strikeout rate escalates into the high 20s all of a sudden you are sitting with an untradeable asset on your books.
1B historically crash in their mid 30's. In the last 50 years there have only been 8 1B from their age 32-37 seasons (a likely age range for Freemans next contract) to have over 20 WAR in that range. And even that is a suspect number because it includes players like George Brett who moved to 1B way late in their career. Most others benefits from being able to DH as well. Honestly the only player in that group who I would consider a true 1B and stayed their would be Mark Grace. But players who start out at 1B just aren't productive in their late 30's. I'd rather not pay Freeman mega bucks to be part of that trend.
If Donaldson were 5 years younger he would cost $300M+ over 10 years and some team would still be paying him $30M when he was 37. Whichever team signs an impact FA will be on the hook for an underwater contract when that player enters his late 30s. It is a certainty whether that player is Donaldson or Machado. The trick is to move a guy like Donaldson to 1B/DH at the end of his deal, and is why AL teams have a competitive advantage over the NL.
The fact Donaldson is going to be 33 in 2019 is the only reason the Braves have any shot at signing him. It’s probably not likely they will, but of all the impact FAs that have become available in the last decade, he stands as the most likely to sign with the Braves.
He’s probably not going to be a Brave, but it at least makes sense to discuss him. The same couldn’t be said for all the other guys with 0% chance of signing with the Braves that folks still insist on rosterbating over.
We need to hope AA is smart enough to realize this after seeing first hand how badly the Adrian Gonzales contract worked out in LA.
Old players move to 1B, so don’t sign an old 1B and watch him rot away to nothing on your roster.
The next post will be lauding how athletic Freeman is, so he will age better than normal. When someone posts that, have them take a look at Pujols, who was considered even more athletic than Freeman.
Yeah I just don't get it. Frank Thomas and Albert Pujols were arguably the greatest 20's 1B ever. And neither are anywhere close to the same hitters in their 30's. You can point to Joey Votto but I suspect even he will slow down in the next couple of years.