Donaldson in 2019
- Thread starter Enscheff
- Start date
Southcack77
Well-known member
I have an easier time reconciling that myself.
Not really saying it’s possible but it makes more sense to me. Problem is you probably are looking at paying Harper long enough in his deal to get into similar decline seasons.
That’s the point a couple of folks have made and it’s basically true. Someone is always willing to give the long deal in the end even if it will be a disaster.
But I think seven years of good Harper, for example, is a better deal than maybe three good years of Donaldson.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
it's gonna be more like 10/400
I'd do that too. How much decline should we expect for a top 10 player of all time at 35?
I honestly think its going to be more like 10 years 450-500. That gets more pricey than the Braves can pay but 40M for his bat? Yeah - I'd do that.
Ask Griffey, Thomas, and Pujols.
All-time great hitters can break down and decline in their 30's just like other players.
In Franks age 35/36 years he posted a wRC+ of 147/157. How is that a bad season?
Griffey was all about injuries.
No proof but there is so much talk about Pujols real age that his decline may have been his late 30's and not mid 30s.
Harper will be a dominate hitter for another 10 years.
Lets compare the greatest hitters of all time 33-37 years wRC+:
Musial: 164/152/139/167
Bonds: 170/148/174/235(roids but would have been great either way)
Ruth: 212/200/184/205
Aaron: 163/151/170/146
Williams: 255(age 34 year)/207/201/174
Gherig: 176/133
Need I go on? And Harper can be compared to these guys.
Musial: 164/152/139/167
Bonds: 170/148/174/235(roids but would have been great either way)
Ruth: 212/200/184/205
Aaron: 163/151/170/146
Williams: 255(age 34 year)/207/201/174
Gherig: 176/133
Need I go on? And Harper can be compared to these guys.
That 157 WRC+ was in 70 games. I didn't say he had all bad seasons but Thomas was obviously not the same player in his 30's than he was in his 20's. His ability declined and he couldn't stay healthy. Same thing happened to Griffey. Pujols...same thing. And people will always question foreign born players age but he came over as a teenager and enrolled in school. I know that was easier to fake in pre 9-11 but I don't see him entering high school in his early 20's when he obviously could of just signed with a team and start playing.
But Griffey was obviously injury. Not sure how that can be debated. now Harper has been banged up and needs to be considered in the equation but I think I have just unequivocally proved that those hitters that are in their own class age very well.
As for Thomas lets move into further years: 128/139/127 - Obviously not what you are paying for but as long as you have first base open or the DH which will be int he NL at that time the Braves will be fine.
Harper would be a tremendous investment if the Braves are actually serious about wining.
So Harper is guaranteed to 1) be as good as those guys and 2) not decline like they did?
I gave you 3 all-time greats that did decline. It can happen and there is no guarantee that Harper is immune.
You gave me 1 example of a guy who declined for all time elite levels to be just a tremendously good player. I'll be fine with that at the back end of Harpers contract.
Then you gave another guy whose decline was CLEARLY injury.
I'll even give you Pujols despite the consistent questions about his real age.
Therefore, it is far more statistically likely that Harper is still extremely productive in his age 33-37 years and if the Braves give him a 10 year 400-450M contract there will easily get their value back throughout the deal.
And whatever your thoughts of Harper are he should be in the discussion.
Injures happen. And most of those guys played in a different era of baseball than what is currently played. ARod started a massive decline after 31 as well.
All you proved is that some all-time great hitters played well through their 30's. I've shown that some don't. What this shows is that Harper is no guarantee to be the guy you've been hoping he would be for the last 5 years. I'd rather not pay that player 40+ million for 10 years.
I've actually shown that a far greater percentage of the greatest hitters of all time produce very well in their age 33-37 years. Do you deny that?
Further - Of course the players are going to decline but what are they declining to is the question. YOu mention A-Rod but in his age 31-37 years he posted wRC+ of 152/141/125/113/114 which of course aren't good so he is a feather in your argument. I feel that A-Rod was doing roids his whole life and his body broke down but its convenient for me to keep using excuses for examples that work for your argument.
Even with Pujols/Griffey(injury)/A-Rod the odds are much more likely that Harper produces throughout his contract.
Are we going to stray away from signing any elite player because they may get injurred?
If you can get Harper for 10 400 then I think you have to do it.
This is assuming he's an all-time great hitter.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I'm just saying that what happened to Griffey and Thomas is not unusual