And his BABIP against RHP is below his career norm. Overall his BABIP for the year is right where it has been.
Don't look now, but....
- Thread starter JCarbo76
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And his BABIP against RHP is below his career norm. Overall his BABIP for the year is right where it has been.
Is it possible that a player gets better through their first 3-5 years in the league?
Maybe instead of always comparing a player like Inciarte for example to his career averages (which include his learning curve) maybe we should prorate his learning curve to forecast the likely plateau and predict the sustainability of it.
I look at his career (while very, very short so far) and see that he has continued to improve each year (BABIP of .310, .329, 333). If I take that growth curve and forecast it to continue, then a .340ish would be feasible for the next year or 2. What I really think is that Inciarte has already regressed and September is what we can expect as his Plateau. He had a monster August and now has regressed toward his plateau.
Since that is the case, Freeman is similar and Dansby is projectable (and should improve).
Maybe instead of always comparing a player like Inciarte for example to his career averages (which include his learning curve) maybe we should prorate his learning curve to forecast the likely plateau and predict the sustainability of it.
I look at his career (while very, very short so far) and see that he has continued to improve each year (BABIP of .310, .329, 333). If I take that growth curve and forecast it to continue, then a .340ish would be feasible for the next year or 2. What I really think is that Inciarte has already regressed and September is what we can expect as his Plateau. He had a monster August and now has regressed toward his plateau.
Since that is the case, Freeman is similar and Dansby is projectable (and should improve).
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
I think Inciarte will be a Lorenzo Cain type player over his career with a few more walks and a little less power.
I agree... The older guys probably have some regression ahead, but I expect the younger guys to keep improving. That's what we should expect from good young talented players.
Great post. I agree, and this is what I keep trying to say. Young guys can be expected to improve. Older guys, you usually get what you expect.
Southcack77
Well-known member
The offensive start was ridiculously bad and unlucky. It really had to even out and now strangely enough you've gotten the other extreme.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
If Freeman repeats his second half over a full season he would be the best hitter in the game. I still think he has a monster career year in him where he goes nuts like the year Chipper hit 45 homers. I think we will all just be happy if he finishes with three same overall stats with a few more RBI.
I think we have some nice pieces to work with offensively especially once Albies is added. But I still don't like the idea of just going with Adonis at 3B
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think we will sign KJ. We will start 2017 with Adonis penciled in as the starter. KJ and Jace will be options on the major league roster who can play third. And Ruiz will be available from AAA. The idea is to make up for the lack of a proven major league regular by having multiple options. This approach has the virtue of being cheap and also giving Adonis an opportunity to build on his strong second half.
Oklahomabrave
Anytime Now Frankie...
I think we make more trades than people anticipate with Freeman and Swanson the only ones truly safe.
While I like what Adonis has done, I think the team needs to get better to truly compete at a high level, and 3B and Catcher are the most logical places to do so (along with pitching of course).
I think we can't really afford to keep a good player like Adonis if we can find a way to replace him with a better player. While that is the case for every player, I think the potential is greater for internal improvement with the other position players. I think Adonis has done very well, but I suspect that is the most obvious opportunity for offensive improvement.
I think we can't really afford to keep a good player like Adonis if we can find a way to replace him with a better player. While that is the case for every player, I think the potential is greater for internal improvement with the other position players. I think Adonis has done very well, but I suspect that is the most obvious opportunity for offensive improvement.
JMO, but I just don't see another go-round with KJ. Frenchy possibly, but not KJ. If they don't upgrade at 3B, someone like d'Arnaud would seem to make more sense because to me of his extra speed and flexibility (SS and CF). To be honest, I'm not sure either of them makes much sense because you should have plenty of flexibility with just 4 OFs (Ender, Kemp, Markakis, and Mallex) with Jace as a fallback option when necessary - especially once Albies arrives.
Again just me, but I'd rather have an 8th arm in the pen by far.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
For most of the second half of this season, we have played without a decent lefty pinch hitting option on the bench. It hasn't been a big deal because we were not competing for anything. I think we will rectify that situation. We'll have Mallex (assuming no trade of an outfielder), but a well constructed bench should also have room for a lefty bat with some pop. KJ would fit in nicely.
As for that 8th reliever, he becomes superfluous if we succeed in building a rotation of starters that can consistently pitch into the seventh inning.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Agreed. I think Adonis has surpassed almost everyone's expectations and really has improved against righties and is not such a dramatic splits player anymore. However, he is already in his 30s, he can be suspect on defense (although he has greatly improved there as well). But for the first time in his career he actually has some real trade value. He's proven he can be a regular on an already stacked team who may need a third baseman. We should take advantage of that real value that we found off he scrap heap while we can.
Getting ahead of ourselves here (which is to certainly be expected as well as fun), but the presence of McCann would mitigate that IMO - particularly if the DH becomes a reality in both leagues.