DOTW 4/24/'14: Decision Time For the Pitching Staff
- Thread starter rico43
- Start date
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
His xFIP was not very strong until he pitched against the Marlins. With small samples, it helps a lot to face a weak hitting team like them. I'm very happy with what Harang has given us, but I think there is a big smoke and mirrors element to his success.
Its not fair though to take away any starts and then evaluate a guy. His performance speaks for itself so far this season. I agree iwth you in that he will come back to earth but I don't think we should rush to move him out of the rotation until that happens or someone offers us a solid trade.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
This will sort itself out. Harang is going to get a few more starts. Players get hot all the time. I remember three years ago there were similar arguments being made that there was no way we could keep Constanza out of the lineup until he stopped hitting .400. The inevitable tends to be inevitable. I am not a fan of waiting for it to happen.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Interesting article/metric. I still personally believe Hale has back-of-the-rotation value, thanks to his ground-ball tendencies, but I do wish his control would stabilize some—an issue that'd be problematic in the rotation or the bullpen, to be honest.
This (to me) is the point I think most people have to get their minds around.
Harang was released by the Indians and was pitching a lot like this in their camp. Our scouts weren't the only ones that saw him, however they evidently were the only ones who believed he had enough of anything left in the tank to get us by for a handful of starts to convince a front office to offer him a major league deal. Anyone even slightly interested in him at this point not only has to absolutely view themselves as a contender as of today, they also have to view Harang as a "difference maker" over another 25+ starts. Will he be? That's the $1 million question. Can he be? Why not? How many people wrote off A. J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano, Edinson Volquez, and many others over the years before their scenery changed and they suddenly put up a renaissance season?
I think the overriding point here is that Wren & Company may have "hit the lottery" like other teams have in the past. My feeling is that other GMs have to approach this situation with serious caution - if we're willing to move Harang when he's on a roll like this simply to create a rotation spot for Gavin Floyd (who the organization has little more significant investment in or ties to than it does Harang), that's got to be a bit of a red flag. If you're the GM thinking about trading for him, you wouldn't be very good at your job (or likely to keep it for very long) if your first thought isn't "what do they know that I don't?" Even if you're convinced that he can keep this up (to an extent obviously) enough to really help your rotation, are you willing to then potentially weaken your pen to get him when you think of your team as a legitimate contender? I'm not if I'm in that position.
Then consider the potential consequences carefully if you're in Wren's shoes. There's obviously a lot to be said for not rocking the boat when things are going so well - trading him when things are going so well and the clubhouse chemistry is as loose and flowing as it appears to be is dangerous - regardless of the reason. This group has something special working, most specifically the rotation.
I completely understand you have to make space for Minor, and believe that you'd be playing with fire if you don't get him back in there as soon as you're sure he's ready to go - he came up with and has been considered a big part of the core the organization has been building around for several years. You run the risk of upsetting Freeman/Simmons/Heyward/etc. if you decide you'd rather run Harang out there. The thing is, Harang is already a far bigger part of that clubhouse than Floyd will be (for some time at least).
I just don't think you can give this potential lottery ticket away unless you get a significant pen upgrade, and I don't think many contending GMs will part with that type of piece for Harang - Minor's issue has been his shoulder (much more dangerous than his elbow), and you still want to limit Teheran and Wood's innings as much as possible. I think you've got to ride Harang as far as you possibly can at this point - if he turns into a pumpkin and won't step aside quietly if Floyd eventually pitches well enough to replace him, you release him rather than keep him around.
This rotation has already far exceeded anyone's wildest expectations given what the early losses were, and it has the team in a position to only get stronger as the season progresses - we still don't have "too much" pitching...no one ever has. If I were in Wren's office, I'm not allowing this team to fall short of its goals because we had another injury to a starter in July and Teheran and Wood ran out of gas in September or October.
My question remains what type of numbers do you consider acceptable from Harang when he does come back down to earth. We all agree it's inevitable he's going to regress but at age 36 what are you willing to accept from him?
I don't want to see his magic run out but it will soon. His best value to this team is a trade because he's not going to continue these numbers for the rest of the season
I don't want to see his magic run out but it will soon. His best value to this team is a trade because he's not going to continue these numbers for the rest of the season
To me, it's not a question of "what numbers are acceptable from him" - it's whether the return for the insurance he can provide for the next few months will help the pen more than what he and Floyd could provide even if they just pitch to their career norms at the back of the rotation? I don't see a contending GM giving up a significant bullpen arm for him.
Neither one of those guys will be anything other than an afterthought IF we get to the playoffs - there's no chance either starts a postseason game if everyone's healthy (and not beyond any IP limits). However, I'm much more comfortable with rolling with Harang until the point Floyd forces him out of the rotation - and he's nowhere close to doing so at this juncture.
I love Hale as much as everyone else does, but let's be honest here - he's doing it with smoke and mirrors far more than Harang, and if either of them is more likely to turn into a pumpkin before July it's Hale.
The "value" point is just it - at this point Harang has no established value to anyone other than the Braves. Does that change if Jon Daniels calls and offers Neil Cotts or Jason Frasor for him? Sure. But you're guessing that he has that value to someone. Until someone calls with that type of offer, I'd hold onto him.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
A lot of these pitching surplus issues take care of themselves--pitchers tend to break down or suffer losses of form. The only immediate decision is what to do when Minor returns after one more rehab start. To me the answer to that question is fairly straightforward. Move Hale to the pen and move Schlosser to the AAA rotation. I think Hale is a little more polished than Schlosser. There isn't much separating the two.
My concern about sending Wood to the pen is if we need him to start we have to send him down and stretch him out.
From MLBTR...
"While Atlanta obviously did well to identify starter Aaron Harang, who is off to an incredible start to the season for the Braves after being squeezed out of the Indians’ rotation mix, Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus explains that there are no analytical or scouting reasons to believe that Harang has re-invented himself at this late stage of his career. Ultimately, Harang has benefited from a low BABIP, high strand rate, and unsustainable level of success with runners in scoring position. Though his contributions to date should not be underestimated, says Lindbergh, there remains a good chance that the Braves will end up replacing Harang in the rotation before the season is out."
Ben Lindbergh isn't the only numbers guy that's aware of this - all 29 other teams have people making this exact point to their GMs. I just don't see the contending ones giving up anything of value for him (especially if it weakens their pens), and I definitely can't imagine anyone giving up much of a prospect for him given that he's not likely to contribute for very long.
Like I said, I'd keep him in the event he somehow keeps it up to do nothing other than provide more time for Floyd. If he keeps it up you'll be happy dealing with who's in and who's out when the time comes.
"While Atlanta obviously did well to identify starter Aaron Harang, who is off to an incredible start to the season for the Braves after being squeezed out of the Indians’ rotation mix, Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus explains that there are no analytical or scouting reasons to believe that Harang has re-invented himself at this late stage of his career. Ultimately, Harang has benefited from a low BABIP, high strand rate, and unsustainable level of success with runners in scoring position. Though his contributions to date should not be underestimated, says Lindbergh, there remains a good chance that the Braves will end up replacing Harang in the rotation before the season is out."
Ben Lindbergh isn't the only numbers guy that's aware of this - all 29 other teams have people making this exact point to their GMs. I just don't see the contending ones giving up anything of value for him (especially if it weakens their pens), and I definitely can't imagine anyone giving up much of a prospect for him given that he's not likely to contribute for very long.
Like I said, I'd keep him in the event he somehow keeps it up to do nothing other than provide more time for Floyd. If he keeps it up you'll be happy dealing with who's in and who's out when the time comes.
