DOTW 7/10/13: Re-sign McCann?

[Heyward]

Why would the payroll go up? What reason do we have to believe Liberty Media would spend more on the Braves or sell the team to someone who would increase payroll?

Every teams payroll moves up, by how much, no one knows.

If we get, per say, 10-15 million that would be good.

 

[Heyward]

Why would the payroll go up? What reason do we have to believe Liberty Media would spend more on the Braves or sell the team to someone who would increase payroll?

With the revenue every team will get.

Not sure how much it will go up however.

 

[zitothebrave]

I don't disagree, i've reports we may move on, and just go with Bethancourt/Gattis at C.

We may, but who knows.

 

[Heyward]

Exactly. There's a different between paying a very good closer a lot of money or spending extra to keep one of the most dominant pitchers in recent memory with the team. If he's demanding $20M then no I don't keep him. But if we can lock him up for roughly $15M I would have a hard time saying no.

Only way i'd consider 15 mil is if the payroll jumps up 15 million and into the 105-110 million range.

If the payroll stays around 90-95, you can't justify paying him that, no way, as good as he is.

 

[Heyward]

We may, but who knows.

If he'd stay on a team-friendly deal, i'd love to have him back but i'm just not sure that will happen.

 

[Heyward]

I would even have trouble giving him $10M a year if he would even take that deal considering that Papelbon for 4 for $48M from the Phillies and now they're stuck with him.

Well, our payroll may go up a little bit with the increased revenue every team gets.

I'd do 10 million if it goes up, don't think he would accept that though.

 

[Carp]

Neither of those 2 are close to Kimbrel. Kimbrel is special we should keep him as long as we possibly can. We're talking about a guy who may go down as the greatest closer of all time if he can stay healthy enough.

Not sure how Smoltz is not close to Kimbrel, especially factoring in the offenses in the post-steroid era. Smoltz still is tied for the most saves in the NL.

 

[zitothebrave]

Not sure how Smoltz is not close to Kimbrel, especially factoring in the offenses in the post-steroid era. Smoltz still is tied for the most saves in the NL.

Smoltz never had a year as dominating as Kimbrel's as a reliver, While you have a point about steroids era, Kimbrel's ERA and FIP are like a full run lower on his career than Smoltz as a closer, from 02-04 Smoltz had a 173 ERA+, Kimbrel is sitting at 266. Kimbrel hasn't even had 1 season where his ERA+ is below Smoltz's average from his closing years. Smoltz was great, Kimbrel is other worldly. Using fWAR, Kimbrel has compiled an 8.0 WAR in under 200 IP. Meaning if he has a somewhat healthy career and gets to 800 IP, odds are he'll be the 2nd best reliever of the last 20 years ahead of Wagner, Hoffman, Nathan, and Papelbon. Kimbrel is on pace to be special, legendary even. We're talking about a guy who if he's healthy enough could eclipse Mo except for post season success, no one will beat him there.

 

[Carp]

Kimbrell's 2012 and Smoltz's 2003 are virtually identical (strkeouts aside). Plus let's not forget that Smoltz's 2002 was warped by his 2nd outing of the yr in which Cox left him in and he gave up 8 runs to the Mets. Had Smoltz not gone back to a starter, he would have been ahead of Wagner, Hoffman, Nathan, etc as well.

 

[zitothebrave]

Kimbrell's 2012 and Smoltz's 2003 are virtually identical (strkeouts aside). Plus let's not forget that Smoltz's 2002 was warped by his 2nd outing of the yr in which Cox left him in and he gave up 8 runs to the Mets.

Smoltz's 2003 and Kimbrel's 2012 aren't close aside from ERA.

Smoltz went 64.1 innings, walked 8 struck out 73 gave up 2 homers, for a ERA of 1.12 a FIP of 1.54 and an xFIP of 2.50 (meaning he was pretty danged fortunate to not give up more homers) and a SIERA of 2.02. Amazing numbers. But that was his one dominant season. His other 2 don't come close to it and I look at more than just one season usually, don't know if you realized that but I digress.

Kimbrel's 2012 he went 62.2 IP walked 14 struck out 116, gave up 3 homers for an ERA of 1.01 a FIP of 0.78 an xFIP of 0.88 and a SIERA of 0.68

Smoltz was awesome, but he was fortunate (can't say the L word around Meta or he'll melt down) to have given up so few runs, while Kimbrel by all indications was a smidge unfortunate in the runs allowed department, and he bested Smoltz in those. So Smoltz's best season he overachieved his peripherals and couldn't catch Kimbrel's best season where he underachieved his peripherals.

But Smoltz is close to Kimbrel ha.

Care to bring up a larger sample though? Like 02-04 for Smoltz vs Kimbrel's career? Care to bring that up?

I will.

From 02-04 Smoltz compiled these rate stats 9.66 K/9 1.79 BB/9 2.47 ERA 2.27 FIP 2.72 xFIP 2.39 SIERA

From 10-now for Kimbrel he's got these rate stats 15.5 K/9 3.4 BB/9 1.47 ERA 1.42 FIP 1.70 xFIP 1.41 SIERA

Of relief pitchers with 190 IP, Kimbrel is 1st in K/9 by over 1 first in ERA by half a run (though Mo has slipped a little lately) first in FIP by about 7/10 of a run and for those who qualify for SIERA (02 til now) has a 3/10 of a run advantage.

Kimbrel is not a great closer, far and away he's the best reliever in the game over a healthy sample, and Smoltz wasn't that.