nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
While not prodigiously young for his level, he's always gotten fairly challenging placements. As a result, he's played full-season low A at 19, high A at 20, and now AA at 21. What's interesting is that his performance has improved slightly at each level. Also worth keeping in mind is that he is playing in one of the more challenging hitting environments in Mississippi.
It is interesting to break down his progress by element.
The walk rate has gone from 4.4% to 8.8% to 8.7% over the past three seasons. He is now at a level where walk and strikeout rates start to tell us something about how his major league career might unfold. The walk rate from the past two years is not great but not bad either. It is not what is going to distinguish him going forward.
The strikeout rate has gone from 24.3% to 18.3% to 16.7%. I like the trend. I think he might be able to settle at about a 15% strikeout rate in the majors in a few years.
ISO has bounced around the past three years: .127, .096, .163. Nothing outstanding there. But not a punch and judy hitter either. I think he could settle into a .150 ISO hitter in the majors. Say 10-15 home runs in a full season.
BABIP has been .294, .295, .315. It is fair to say he is not going to be a high BABIP hitter. But something around .300 seems plausible.
In trying to think of a current major league player that he comes closest too, the name that comes to mind is Seth Smith, even though he is a lefty.
Up until now, I've thought the most likely outcome for Peterson was bench player or right handed side of a platoon.
His performance this year has moved the needle a bit for me. I think he could be a major league regular. Not a star. But a solid 2 WAR a year type.
It is interesting to break down his progress by element.
The walk rate has gone from 4.4% to 8.8% to 8.7% over the past three seasons. He is now at a level where walk and strikeout rates start to tell us something about how his major league career might unfold. The walk rate from the past two years is not great but not bad either. It is not what is going to distinguish him going forward.
The strikeout rate has gone from 24.3% to 18.3% to 16.7%. I like the trend. I think he might be able to settle at about a 15% strikeout rate in the majors in a few years.
ISO has bounced around the past three years: .127, .096, .163. Nothing outstanding there. But not a punch and judy hitter either. I think he could settle into a .150 ISO hitter in the majors. Say 10-15 home runs in a full season.
BABIP has been .294, .295, .315. It is fair to say he is not going to be a high BABIP hitter. But something around .300 seems plausible.
In trying to think of a current major league player that he comes closest too, the name that comes to mind is Seth Smith, even though he is a lefty.
Up until now, I've thought the most likely outcome for Peterson was bench player or right handed side of a platoon.
His performance this year has moved the needle a bit for me. I think he could be a major league regular. Not a star. But a solid 2 WAR a year type.