Dustin Peterson

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
While not prodigiously young for his level, he's always gotten fairly challenging placements. As a result, he's played full-season low A at 19, high A at 20, and now AA at 21. What's interesting is that his performance has improved slightly at each level. Also worth keeping in mind is that he is playing in one of the more challenging hitting environments in Mississippi.

It is interesting to break down his progress by element.

The walk rate has gone from 4.4% to 8.8% to 8.7% over the past three seasons. He is now at a level where walk and strikeout rates start to tell us something about how his major league career might unfold. The walk rate from the past two years is not great but not bad either. It is not what is going to distinguish him going forward.

The strikeout rate has gone from 24.3% to 18.3% to 16.7%. I like the trend. I think he might be able to settle at about a 15% strikeout rate in the majors in a few years.

ISO has bounced around the past three years: .127, .096, .163. Nothing outstanding there. But not a punch and judy hitter either. I think he could settle into a .150 ISO hitter in the majors. Say 10-15 home runs in a full season.

BABIP has been .294, .295, .315. It is fair to say he is not going to be a high BABIP hitter. But something around .300 seems plausible.

In trying to think of a current major league player that he comes closest too, the name that comes to mind is Seth Smith, even though he is a lefty.

Up until now, I've thought the most likely outcome for Peterson was bench player or right handed side of a platoon.

His performance this year has moved the needle a bit for me. I think he could be a major league regular. Not a star. But a solid 2 WAR a year type.
 
I'd be much more excited about him if he wasn't a LF. And I think he projects as an avg LF.

He could have stuck at 3B, that would be something.

I think he'll have to rake to be regular in LF.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Hoping to see him tonight and tomorrow night so I will give first hand reports on how he plays and what he looks like at the plate.
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Curious how he looks in the field. I assume his arm will play fine since he started out at 3B, but I'm a little dubious when it comes to his range.
 
It would be interesting to see how his peripherals look. Some guys show a bit more HR power in MLB because the pitchers throw more strikes. I wonder if Peterson might turn out that way?

As far as his range goes, I only saw one game, but he wasn't a moose out there. I'd guess he is probably avg, and he does have a good arm.
 
I want to take a similar look at Rio Ruiz. Like Peterson, he's been placed fairly aggressively, so that he's played High A at age 20, AA at age 21 and AAA at 22.

The walk rate has been consistently good during the past three years: 13.6%, 12.9%, 13.4%. Based on that I think he will settle on something in the 10-15% range after a couple years of experience in the majors.

The strikeout rate has risen from 15.5% to 19.2% to 26.3%. Unless you have a lot of power, a strikeout rate above 25% is not going to cut it at the major league level. The trend in strikeout rate contrasts with the downward trend in Dustin Peterson's strikeout rate.

ISO has bounced around: .143, .090, .102. I think this will settle in the .100 to .150 range after a few years in the majors. He could be a 10-15 home run guy over a full season.

BABIP has also bounced around: .335, .288, .348. Two of the three years significantly above .300. Ruiz might be a high BABIP hitter.

To compare Ruiz and Peterson: Ruiz will give you more walks, but also more strikeouts. At the moment the walk/strikeout trade-off looks more favorable for Peterson, especially when you consider the trend in their respective strikeout rates. Power is about the same. Looks like Ruiz is a bit more BABIP dependent, and therefore more streaky.

In terms of projection I think the two are close. The trend in the strikeout rate is the main reason I like Peterson a little better. I've upgraded Peterson based on what he's done this year. Ruiz on the other hand is the same kind of prospect right now as he was at the start of the year. I see his most likely role in his prime years as the left-handed part of a platoon at third.

I think sometimes in our search for the next big star we neglect the value of players like Peterson and Ruiz. Whether we hold on to them or move them to other teams, they are likely to provide value at the major league level.

I expect both to spend most of 2017 in AAA. At some point in the second half of next year or in 2018 they should be ready to contribute to the major league team. In constructing our major league roster this off-season we should assume that neither will break spring training with the major league team.
 
Good stuff. In addition to very good everyday players, great major league teams also have a deep bench with real quality there. I too think Peterson and Ruiz can either be decent regulars, at least for a period of time, or very good bench/platoon options.
 
I thought this Peterson wasn't talked about enough in the J. Upton deal and that was largely based on his performance as a 19-year-old in his first season in full-season ball. Not a great looking stat line to start a career, but he went straight from a complex league into full-season ball. That's not totally unheard of, but I think for a lot of guys a year out of high school, stats will suffer.

He did well until the bus crash last year and he's been solid this year. The minors are getting "older" across the board so he's facing a lot of guys with a lot more experience and holding up well. He's absolutely killing LHP. I agree on the timeline you've laid out. Both he and Ruiz are ahead of schedule in some respects and will likely need more AAA seasoning, but I'm optimistic. I think he can at least be a solid platoon player, but, to me, that's his floor.
 
So can we win with an outfield of Smith, Inciarte and Peterson. Of do we need someone like Wil Myers to hit 20-30 home runs.
 
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