Early ZiPs Puts Braves at 80 Wins

thethe said:
Reasonable but three reasons why I think this year is different:

1) Young positional talent (Acuna/Albies/Freeman/Inciarte/Camargo) is very enticing and could produce a cumulative WAR of 20-25.

2) Young starting pitching. Newcomb went under the radar last year and came on as he got more comfortable as the season progressed. We all saw Gohara - First legit #1 starter out of the system since Hanson (RIP). We all know how I feel about Fried. Teheran is still a solid MOR picher and Folty can either be an ACE or a bullpen arm. Either way - we have better pitching now than we did in quite some time.

3) Defense. Corner OF defense aside I think our defense will be stout next season.
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Is there potential, sure, but there was potential last year that didn't nearly pan out as we had hoped. I'm looking at misguided expectations that most of us had with Swanson for starters. The expectation that our corner outfield defense has to be better this year only because it sucked so bad last year is a flawed argument. As far as starting pitching, other than Gohara who truly showed me something, there's a lot to be proven. Our new guys have to show that they can either pitch to weak contact or finish batters off e.g. get to the fifth inning without having thrown 100 pitches. I'm also not convinced that Teheran is a proven middle of the rotation starter. On a plus .500 team he's either a #4 or #5.

Last year, I learned that optimism not based on proven performance is a mirage. For next season, I'll be from Missouri --"show me."
 
USMA76 said:
Is there potential, sure, but there was potential last year that didn't nearly pan out as we had hoped. I'm looking at misguided expectations that most of us had with Swanson for starters. The expectation that our corner outfield defense has to be better this year only because it sucked so bad last year is a flawed argument. As far as starting pitching, other than Gohara who truly showed me something, there's a lot to be proven. Our new guys have to show that they can either pitch to weak contact or finish batters off e.g. get to the fifth inning without having thrown 100 pitches. I'm also not convinced that Teheran is a proven middle of the rotation starter. On a plus .500 team he's either a #4 or #5.

Last year, I learned that optimism not based on proven performance is a mirage. For next season, I'll be from Missouri --"show me."
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the other thing is usually not all the surprises break in the same direction...usually they cancel each other out
 
jpx7 said:
Of course it's more than just Stanton; that was simply one example of a likely change. The real caveat was this: "They [these projections] are a simple snap shot of where teams stand as they enter the offseason."
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Yes, read that and it's still premature. It's understood, however, that there are those with a constant need to feel "engaged," so then this probably means a great deal to them.
 
BeanieAntics said:
That was me but looking back it could have been a little conservative. At this point with our team, anything less than 130 would be a disappointment
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In reality the hard part is figuring out how to divide up the WAR projections equitably. Obviously we have to give 10 each to Freeman, Acuna, and Albies, along with at least 35 WAR in the rotation. That doesn't leave much for the rest of the team.
 
nsacpi said:
https://www.talkingchop.com/2017/11/5/16608754/2018-zips-projections-nl-east-atlanta-braves
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I think I have the Braves at 83 wins with the current roster, so depending on what assumptions ZiPs makes about Goharas and Acuna's playing time this seems logical.

The Braves get to 85 wins pretty simply: acquire someone like Piscotty, Ozuna or Avi Garcia to play LF, and sign a quality BP arm like Neshek or Hunter. I'm not in favor of adding a guy like Frazier or Mous at 3b, but that upgrade puts them over 85 wins.
 
thethe said:
Reasonable but three reasons why I think this year is different:

1) Young positional talent (Acuna/Albies/Freeman/Inciarte/Camargo) is very enticing and could produce a cumulative WAR of 20-25.

2) Young starting pitching. Newcomb went under the radar last year and came on as he got more comfortable as the season progressed. We all saw Gohara - First legit #1 starter out of the system since Hanson (RIP). We all know how I feel about Fried. Teheran is still a solid MOR picher and Folty can either be an ACE or a bullpen arm. Either way - we have better pitching now than we did in quite some time.

3) Defense. Corner OF defense aside I think our defense will be stout next season.
Click to expand...

You think this year is different because folks with their head in the clouds always think "this time is different".
 
Knucksie said:
Yes, read that and it's still premature. It's understood, however, that there are those with a constant need to feel "engaged," so then this probably means a great deal to them.
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You click on a thread that warns "early", read the caveat that it's a snapshot merely "of where teams begin the offseason", and yet you feel the need to complain that these predictions are premature ... Like, what do you think you're contributing here?
 
jpx7 said:
You click on a thread that warns "early", read the caveat that it's a snapshot merely "of where teams begin the offseason", and yet you feel the need to complain that these predictions are premature ... Like, what do you think you're contributing here?
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It was a reaction. A good many of the contributors here are OCD about Tweets, have complete emotional breakdowns over minor trade announcements. Beware of the clusters that are GDT's. So don't point a finger at me for excessive negativity here. OK, this is a reasonable alternative to looking at anime for the nerd squad.

My reaction to the article was relatively neutral, but you felt the need to get on my junk. 3rd time in about a week and a half? All unprovoked, so not sure what your sudden personal crusade is all about. Jeff asked me to post here (3x, in fact). Before this place went up, I was hardly posting at Scout. If this is such a major problem for you, take it up with him or put me on ignore.
 
Knucksie said:
It was a reaction. A good many of the contributors here are OCD about Tweets, have complete emotional breakdowns over minor trade announcements. Beware of the clusters that are GDT's. So don't point a finger at me for excessive negativity here. OK, this is a reasonable alternative to looking at anime for the nerd squad.

My reaction to the article was relatively neutral, but you felt the need to get on my junk. 3rd time in about a week and a half? All unprovoked, so not sure what your sudden personal crusade is all about. Jeff asked me to post here (3x, in fact). Before this place went up, I was hardly posting at Scout. If this is such a major problem for you, take it up with him or put me on ignore.
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It's nothing personal, I assure you. It just seems like a really odd move to jump into a discussion already recognized/stated to be premature, and bemoan its prematureness. I think(/hope) everyone reading those numbers took them with a big grain-of-salt, and were looking at them more along the lines of what else do the Braves need to do to move the needle this offseason? Probably a necessary distraction from the omnishambles front-office.
 
jpx7 said:
It's nothing personal, I assure you. It just seems like a really odd move to jump into a discussion already recognized/stated to be premature, and bemoan its prematureness. I think(/hope) everyone reading those numbers took them with a big grain-of-salt, and were looking at them more along the lines of what else do the Braves need to do to move the needle this offseason? Probably a necessary distraction from the omnishambles front-office.
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It used to be that Christmas decorations and promotions didn't start in the stores until the day after Thanksgiving or what is now commonly known as Black Friday. Now it happens before Halloween. So, there's another point of reference.
 
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