Economics Thread

[nsacpi]

crazy...she should have been in the previous administration

tariffs may have saved some jobs here...but the cost to consumers have far outweighed any benefits

bump from 4/7

 

[nsacpi]

Probably not on pot.

bump from 4/7

 

[nsacpi]

uh marriott been using those for a few years now

bump from 4/7

 

[nsacpi]

"Supply chain nationalism" is something that there seems to be close to a national consensus on in the wake of covid-19. The problem is that the definition is going to be stretched in ways that will encourage protectionist practices about all sorts of products that are not really crucial to national security.

bump from 5/7

 

[nsacpi]

Trudeau is a commie. And French. Just sayin.

bump from 5/7

 

[nsacpi]

Shorting Tesla has been a good play so far. Down 11% so far this year. Meanwhile, the S&P500 is up 11% year to date.

bump from 5/11

 

[nsacpi]

Is your net position long or short.

bump from 5/11

 

[nsacpi]

My thought on Tesla is the auto industry (even for EVs) is a mature industry. Toyota, Honda, GM and others are all making enormous pushes into that space. Not to mention German, Korean and Chinese manufacturers. My bet is the big boys eat Tesla's lunch.

bump from 5/11

 

[sturg33]

I see you're having another one of your meltdowns...

 

[nsacpi]

They mostly make money by earning and selling carbon credits.

bump from 5/11

 

[nsacpi]

The PPI jump is the biggest YoY increase in history.

Nsacpi assured me just a month or two ago that there is no inflation

the gracious thing to do would be to admit you have told yet another lie and apologize

not expecting it

 

[sturg33]

Anyhow... when I posted the massive spike in food inflation... you responded by posting a chart that apparently no longer exists, explaining that the spike isn't so bad

12-Month Percent Change
Series Id: CUUR0000SAF1
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Series Title: Food in U.S. city average, all urban consumers, not seasonally adjusted
Area: U.S. city average
Item: Food
Base Period: 1982-84=100

I then respond with the following... which seems to have been spot on

We can do our normal song and dance.

We disagree. I say inflation is a problem. You lecture that its fine.

You smugly lecture me about how brilliant you are your useless anecdotes, etc.

Time goes on... your argument is simply destroyed by the facts. (See Russia, Kavanaugh, Covington, Wallace, 1932, Masks, Cuomo, Whitmer, Portland storm troopers... and I could go on for quite a while).

Then when I point how hopelessly wrong you were again, you go quiet... silent. Can't be bothered. You're on to the next lecture.

I say we just skip to the silence part and save yourself the embarrassment

Oh, and just for good measure... another great call by you. Just another thing to be wrong about...

Next month, I look forward to your post providing an explanation for why job growth exceeded expectations.

Btw the ADP report (from a very large processor of payrolls) produced an estimated increase in employment of 742,000. Eventually the BLS and ADP data will converge.

May missed expectations again, as you know

 

[nsacpi]

Nsacpi assured me just a month or two ago that there is no inflation

still a lie dude

have the grace to own it

i was kind enough to show you a graph on food prices in the Consumer Price Index

i did not say there is no inflation

 

[Jaw]

"Supply chain nationalism" is something that there seems to be close to a national consensus on in the wake of covid-19. The problem is that the definition is going to be stretched in ways that will encourage protectionist practices about all sorts of products that are not really crucial to national security.

For the record, I still stand by supply chain nationalism. We aren't Luxembourg or Kuwait. One of the largest and most climatically and geographically diverse countries in the world should be able to produce everything it needs. The only thing to lose is the increase in corporate profits that offshoring created. That's a feature, not a bug.

 

[nsacpi]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...covid-stimulus/#click=https://t.co/h1ebAM82Xr

Larry Summers asks some hard questions.

bump from 2/4

i thought Summers was raising some good points including this one:

First, while there are enormous uncertainties, there is a chance that macroeconomic stimulus on a scale closer to World War II levels than normal recession levels will set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation, with consequences for the value of the dollar and financial stability. This will be manageable if monetary and fiscal policy can be rapidly adjusted to address the problem. But given the commitments the Fed has made, administration officials’ dismissal of even the possibility of inflation, and the difficulties in mobilizing congressional support for tax increases or spending cuts, there is the risk of inflation expectations rising sharply. Stimulus measures of the magnitude contemplated are steps into the unknown. For credibility, they need to be accompanied by clear statements that the consequences will be monitored closely and, if necessary, there will be the capacity and will to adjust policy quickly.

 

[nsacpi]

For the record, I still stand by supply chain nationalism. We aren't Luxembourg or Kuwait. One of the largest and most climatically and geographically diverse countries in the world should be able to produce everything it needs. The only thing to lose is the increase in corporate profits that offshoring created. That's a feature, not a bug.

You have been ahead of the curve on that one.

 

[nsacpi]

I still find it amusing (in a perverse way) that the $3,000 stimulus per households was something that at one time was backed by the unholy alliance of Bernie Sanders and Josh Hawley. And yes very poorly chosen one. They were its main advocates back in December. Mitch used his Senate majority to block it.

Then the two Democrats running for Senate in Georgia endorsed it and the thing took off.

Lesson: Anything that starts with a combination of people like Sanders and Hawley needs to be looked at very carefully before being turned into policy. Caveat emptor.

But I don't mean to be entirely critical. In my judgment, it is better to go too big on the stimulus and suffer some inflation than to make the opposite mistake. I just think we overshot the target by an amount that is difficult to excuse (sort of what Larry Summers was saying).

 

[Jaw]

I agree that Mitch shot himself in the foot on that one. He was already trying to play hardball with Malleable Joe before the teams were finalized. That was a curious unforced error, as was his recent announcement that he'll block any Supreme Court nominee. He's looking to be past his prime.

 

[acesfull86]

For the record, I still stand by supply chain nationalism. We aren't Luxembourg or Kuwait. One of the largest and most climatically and geographically diverse countries in the world should be able to produce everything it needs. The only thing to lose is the increase in corporate profits that offshoring created. That's a feature, not a bug.

Who gets to decide which supply chains deserve the protection of nationalism? Sounds to me like a recipe for out of control rent seeking, as every widget maker and its upstream suppliers descend on Washington for their handout.

 

[nsacpi]

Who gets to decide which supply chains deserve the protection of nationalism? Sounds to me like a recipe for out of control rent seeking, as every widget maker and its upstream suppliers descend on Washington for their handout.

That's the danger. But there are certain things we do want self sufficiency in. Rare earth metals, which China has a large market share in, is one. I believe we already have a strategic stockpile. Advanced microprocessor development and production is another. Some medical products, including vaccines, obviously. Probably a few others. But it shouldn't be a gravy train for the politically well-connected. There is some risk that happens.