Economics Thread

[tw]1588520442205290500[/tw]

Don't pay attention to the noise - The country is falling apart.
 
thethe said:
[tw]1588520046699188225[/tw]

Its hysterical how tone deaf the left is at this point in time.
Click to expand...

My wife is a refractive surgeon and she says that lasik bookings (premium, out if pocket expense) are down about 20% last month

My company announced hiring freezes and travel cuts

I see local car dealer incentives that I haven't seen for years.

Dozens of companies have already announced major layoffs before the holidays.

My brother is a finance exec at a large auto retail company and he says they will be laying off 20% of staff in January

Etc etc
 
sturg33 said:
Is a recession based on GDP or jobs?
Click to expand...

The macro textbook I use is Mankiw's. For ****s and giggles I looked up the definition of recession. The textbook definition (that particular textbook) is a sustained period of falling real incomes. There ya have it. But if Mankiw's definition aint good enough for you feel free to go with whatever you feel is best.
 
nsacpi said:
The macro textbook I use is Mankiw's. For ****s and giggles I looked up the definition of recession. The textbook definition (that particular textbook) is a sustained period of falling real incomes. There ya have it. But if Mankiw's definition aint good enough for you feel free to go with whatever you feel is best.
Click to expand...

Interesting considering real wages have been on the decline for almost this entire regime.
 
nsacpi said:
The macro textbook I use is Mankiw's. For ****s and giggles I looked up the definition of recession. The textbook definition (that particular textbook) is a sustained period of falling real incomes. There ya have it. But if Mankiw's definition aint good enough for you feel free to go with whatever you feel is best.
Click to expand...
So if 80% of people lost their jobs but the remaining 20% get pay increase it's not a recession?

Lol ok
 
thethe said:
Interesting considering real wages have been on the decline for almost this entire regime.
Click to expand...

This is actually a pretty good point thethe. Real wages are flat to down. But overall wages and salaries are up because of the job growth.
 
sturg33 said:
So if 80% of people lost their jobs but the remaining 20% get pay increase it's not a recession?

Lol ok
Click to expand...

As an autodidact with a high self-regard feel free to provide your own definition.

As an EEA I will continue to indulge in some smug mockery of anyone who believes that the economy has been in a recession throughout 2022.

win-win

i mock you and you derive positive utility from the mockery....Pareto Optimal even
 
nsacpi said:
As an autodidact with a high self-regard feel free to provide your own definition.

As an EEA I will continue to indulge in some smug mockery of anyone who believes that the economy has been in a recession throughout 2022.

win-win

i mock you and you derive positive utility from the mockery....Pareto Optimal even
Click to expand...

If the economy isn't growing then we are in a recession.

What is your prediction for 2023
 
sturg33 said:
I am curious what the EEA plan is for servicing the interest on the debt moving forward.

If employment and economy remain strong, the fed will keep raising rates to slow inflation.

Rates this hight will make debt interest over a trillion dollars.

What do the EEA propose we do? I suspect they will print
Click to expand...

Bump for the EEA perspective
 
nsacpi said:
This is actually a pretty good point thethe. Real wages are flat to down. But overall wages and salaries are up because of the job growth.
Click to expand...

Are you actually saying that wages are up because of job growth?

Surely you don't mean that.....

Can you explain how much job growth we have had over a 4 year time period?
 
nsacpi said:
The macro textbook I use is Mankiw's. For ****s and giggles I looked up the definition of recession. The textbook definition (that particular textbook) is a sustained period of falling real incomes. There ya have it. But if Mankiw's definition aint good enough for you feel free to go with whatever you feel is best.
Click to expand...

Not too interested in throwing my lot in this silly game of economic semantics. If we are going to use one metric to sum up the health of the economy then, and Mankiw is your hero (I also like him btw), so let’s use his.


“From September 2021 to September 2022, real average hourly earnings decreased 2.5 percent, seasonally adjusted. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.9 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 3.4-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.“
 
btw in the past year compensation of employees is up 8.0% and the price deflator for consumer spending is up 6.3%. So compensation in inflation-adjusted terms is up 1.7%. This is due to the job growth we've seen in the past year. In real terms hourly earnings are down, but the fact that more people are working means real income growth has been positive. It is possible to have real income growth even while real hourly earnings are flat to down. For those of you looking to make a critique of the current economic situation, the decline in real hourly wages is a good place to start.
 
chop2chip said:
Not too interested in throwing my lot in this silly game of economic semantics. If we are going to use one metric to sum up the health of the economy then, and Mankiw is your hero (I also like him btw), so let’s use his.


“From September 2021 to September 2022, real average hourly earnings decreased 2.5 percent, seasonally adjusted. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.9 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 3.4-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.“
Click to expand...


see what i just posted
 
nsacpi said:
btw in the past year compensation of employees is up 8.0% and the price deflator for consumer spending is up 6.3%. So compensation in inflation-adjusted terms is up 1.7%. This is due to the job growth we've seen in the past year. In real terms hourly earnings are down, but the fact that more people are working means real income growth has been positive. It is possible to have real income growth even while real hourly earnings are flat to down. For those of you looking to make a critique of the current economic situation, the decline in real hourly wages is a good place to start.
Click to expand...

I've been pushing real wages for six years as non-supervisory workers got the biggest gains in this metric under Trump than they had in decades.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top