Economics Thread

actually tax revenues grew much more slowly after trump's tax cuts than before

6% total from 2016 to 2029

18% from 2013 to 2016

that's a pretty big negative effect on revenue growth
 
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if we really care about debt and deficits the solution will clearly have to include both spending reductions and tax increaes...taking tax increases off the table is an indication of lack of seriousness about doing something about the deficit
 
nsacpi said:
if we really care about debt and deficits the solution will clearly have to include both spending reductions and tax increaes...taking tax increases off the table is an indication of lack of seriousness about doing something about the deficit
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One is much simpler, much more ethical, and muss less destructive than the other
 
i'll offer a normative statement of my own

the enhanced refundable child tax credit made a very big dent in child poverty in 2021

sadly Congress did not extend it and the childhood poverty rate rebounded bigly in 2022

it would be ethical for us as a society to do more to reduce childhood poverty even at the expense of higher taxes

children don't get to choose their parents or the circumstances they are born into...an ethical society would want to reduce the role of random chance in affecting a child's opportunities to grow up to be a happy and productive adult
 
nsacpi said:
if we really care about debt and deficits the solution will clearly have to include both spending reductions and tax increaes...taking tax increases off the table is an indication of lack of seriousness about doing something about the deficit
Click to expand...

I think the reckless party to the outgoing money would have to show some effort first.

Instead government is bigger and more expensive than ever before, and one party is openly trying to expand on that
 
Tapate50 said:
I think the reckless party to the outgoing money would have to show some effort first.

Instead government is bigger and more expensive than ever before, and one party is openly trying to expand on that
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well if we wait upon the other party go go first we'll be waiting for a long time...realistically any significant deficit reduction deal in a divided congress would have to be a package in which both spending cuts and tax increases are enacted together...there is no politically available deal without both being on the table...to say one is off the table is just posturing
 
Tapate50 said:
I think the reckless party to the outgoing money would have to show some effort first.

Instead government is bigger and more expensive than ever before, and one party is openly trying to expand on that
Click to expand...

If I'm racking up insane amount of debt on my credit card that is sinking me... yes I could look for a higher paying or 2nd job... but the easiest, most obvious, and most sustainable solution is to stop spending.

That is fully in my control and doesn't require me milking others for survival
 
Right, just going to get another credit card doesn’t fix the real issue

It’s called financial irresponsibility and is the root problem, full stop.

Calling it anything but is idiocy.
 
nsacpi said:
actually tax revenues grew much more slowly after trump's tax cuts than before

6% total from 2016 to 2029

18% from 2013 to 2016

that's a pretty big negative effect on revenue growth
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The tax plan didn't get signed into effect until Dec of 2017. The lowering of tax revenue % in 2016 and 2017 had nothing to do with Trump. It had more to do with the slowing down of quantitative easing that happened during Obama's time.
 
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Garmel said:
The tax plan didn't get signed into effect until Dec of 2017. The lowering of tax revenue % in 2016 and 2017 had nothing to do with Trump. It had more to do with the slowing down of quantitative easing that happened during Obama's time.
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Thanks for pointing that out. His tax cuts went into effect in 2018. Federal tax revenue growth dropped to 0.4% in 2018. About one-eighth the average growth rate of the prior three years.
 
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nsacpi said:
Thanks for pointing that out. His tax cuts went into effect in 2018. Federal tax revenue growth dropped to 0.4% in 2018. About one-eighth the average growth rate of the prior three years.
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Here are the 3 years before Trump

FY 2017 $3.32 trillion
FY 2016 $3.27 trillion
FY 2015 $3.25 trillion

After Trump

2018 3.33 trillion-slow gain.
2019 3.46 trillion-this is the biggest jump since 2014
2020 Covid hit and we lost.

Sorry, I don't see a correlation here.
 
Garmel said:
Here are the 3 years before Trump

FY 2017 $3.32 trillion
FY 2016 $3.27 trillion
FY 2015 $3.25 trillion

After Trump

2018 3.33 trillion-slow gain.
2019 3.46 trillion-this is the biggest jump since 2014
2020 Covid hit and we lost.

Sorry, I don't see a correlation here.
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I'm happy to take 2018 and 2019 together. Average increase for those two years is 2.2%.

Average increase for the prior five years is 4.6%. More than twice the average increase for 2018-2019.

Both 2014 and 2015 saw significantly faster revenue growth that this annus mirabilis you attribute to very poorly chosen. If he gets credit for 2019 then surely Obama outshines him by a factor of 2 given that the revenue growth in 2014 (8.9%) and 2015(7.6%) were better than 2019(4.0%). Cherry picking works for Obama even better than for very poorly chosen one. Btw a chunk of the improvement in 2019 revenues was due to tariffs on imports from China and other countries, a poorly conceived policy and not one that can do anything other than give you a one-year bump in revenues.
 
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I wouldn't brag about anything before 2015 since the economy was being run on QE. Once QE stopped the money dried up as shown above. As I said, no correlation.
 
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