nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The best performing economy in Europe the last couple years is the one with the most immigration (Spain).
Economics Thread
- Thread starter sturg33
- Start date
Make less money? As real wages are increasing?
Yeah - Those other countries don't have massive influx of immigrants either. Just homogenous zones of white people!
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
AI and technological change can be disruptive and are the big cause of why some parts of the labor force have suffered. Immigration has been used as a scapegoat to avoid facing this reality. When you misdiagnose the cause of a problem it can lead to even bigger problems.
Immigration is essential to understand when incentives exist for employers to choose immigrant workers over American workers.
Incentives are changing and all of a sudden labor force concentration is as well.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
You've missed the main thang about immigration. Immigrants make the pie bigger and better tasting in all sorts of ways. They enrich native-born Americans. It is an obvious thang. Skilled immigrants do this. Immigrants with low levels of education do this. They have been turned into a scapegoat for problems that have other causes. Those problems are real and need addressing. But their chances of being effectively addressed are going to be very low as long as we keep misdiagnosing the cause.
chop2chip
Well-known member
The creation of the federal jobs was a bad thing. It’s also a bad thing when blameless folks lose their jobs. That doesn’t mean it should or shouldn’t be done, but I’m not gonna celebrate it. It’s sad.
Companies are reporting billions of dollars in tariff costs and in parallel investing billions in AI capex. Both will result in less jobs.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
we need to go into the weeds a bit here...these data are not seasonally adjusted...which is why it is better to compare july 2025 with july 2024 not with February.
If you look at this July versus last July you will see the number employed is up but the number unemployed has gone up more on a proportional basis. So the unemployment rate is higher. And it in fact at an 8 year high (taking away the covid period).
Its a great thing that other jobs become available at that same time as a result of immigration policy.
Period of transition / Incentives stack / Different choices are made
Very natural way of things.
AI boom is going to be the most disruptive event so far in our lives. It will take time for the dust to settle and see whats available for human work.
These trendlines will continue because its a natural conclusion of intentional policy. You can try to adjust for anything you want but different and more weighted assumptions now play into the modeling.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Job market transformation will work out just fine in the medium/long term. The 45 year old career government employee with 3 kids and a mortgage will have a tough time adjusting.
sturg33
I
don't forget manufacturing
You aren't actually going to pretend this isn't due to AI job losses YoY?
All I know is the last 4 months we are seeing expected results based on intentional policy.
Adjust your modeling.
I have a feeling for those that were hard working in the first place it will adjust just fine.
People in the private sector lose good jobs and take pay cuts all the time. And if this person was truly worth their comp they'll probably find a job in short order.
sturg33
I
totally is!
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Oh I think technological change is what is causing some parts of the labor force to lag behind. Absolutely. And immigration has been a convenient scapegoat to avoid facing that reality.