Economics Thread

GeorgiaGirl said:
All I'm going to say on this Christmas Eve involving US markets at least is that I'm old enough to remember what happened the last time the Nasdaq went 3 straight on 20%+ years a mere 3 short years ago the year after the 3rd year.

Even if you're going to be like "blasphemy! Biden is the worst president evah, it won't happen again!" we also saw a very volatile midterm year in Trump v1.0 in 2018.

I don't think the odds are very good on 2026 being a trip to the land of milk and honey for markets either (I wouldn't call 2025 easy mode). There is probably going to be some kind of issue again and this time, unlike this year where half of the early year decline was on tariff fears and the other half was woe is me involving AI, will likely have a full focus on AI bubble fears, heck, there's even a full on Trump supporter I observe on X while lurking (mainly stock market focus) that is even in belief of this.

To ramble a bit further, I'm not totally sure how the above would play out yet. I THINK we end up seeing the Nasdaq erase the divergence with the S&P to end the worry that this future year is potentially 2022-esque, but until it does, the threat will continue to exist. If the divergence is erased, I think the S&P blows off into 7200-7400 and then the volatility starts in February next year. It will likely be a buyable dip, but still highly frustrating for many.
Click to expand...

Tbh, I did actually briefly entertain the possibility that this year was Trump v2.0's version of 2018 and the next year would be cruise control mode for US markets like 2019 was, but I think that's firmly off the table now. Unless volume coming back over the next couple weeks leads to a good push over 629 immediately for QQQ, the 2018 option of a blowoff top into February is off the table too.

We got close to getting to 7k, but I think high 5000's to low 6k's before the SPX pushes over 7k is quite likely now. So, it will fail to be a land of milk and honey type year for the incumbent president yet again overall, but as of now, I think the 8 straight years of a GOP president stretch that would've likely happened without the pandemic interruption does end up occurring.

I don't think it'll get to 12 straight years for numerous reasons. I think the backlash will end up boiling over to the swing hard to the cultural right with Vance in the late 20's/early 30's (it's bubbling some and I think it'll fully boil over with Vance and his Woke Right crew), and economically, that period is going to be TOUGH with concerns over long term funding for Medicare/Social Security and my bet would that he does not have what it takes. I think there's a great chance the next US secular bear market in stocks starts around then (if those can still occur) and whoever is president will likely pay the price for it... (whether Vance gets in or if a Democratic president gets in)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top