Economics Thread

thethe said:
Yourr a smart man. You have read the pork inflation and the nationalization of banks. China has some major issues right now and with some manufacutring leaving they know they have to deal before it gets worse. Xi could be assasinated at any moment.
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Of course we can cause great damage to China's economy. That is not in dispute.

What I have noted is that we are trying to get China to do something (improve its legal enforcement of intellectual property rights and rule of law generally) that is in China's best interests. If China were to do these things the flow of foreign investment into China would accelerate. So we are trying to get China to do something that good for China. I have no objection to that. I do have objections to using measures that harm American farmers and American businesses and workers to try to push China into doing something that is in its own best interests. It seems to be the opposite of putting America first to me.
 
nsacpi said:
Of course we can cause great damage to China's economy. That is not in dispute.

What I have noted is that we are trying to get China to do something (improve its legal enforcement of intellectual property rights and rule of law generally) that is in China's best interests. If China were to do these things the flow of foreign investment into China would accelerate. So we are trying to get China to do something that good for China. I have no objection to that. I do have objections to using measures that harm American farmers and American businesses and workers to try to push China into doing something that is in its own best interests. It seems to be the opposite of putting America first to me.
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What is the alternative?

The goal is to create a democratic state through non military means.
 
thethe said:
What is the alternative?

The goal is to create a democratic state through non military means.
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The alternative is to not adopt policies that harm American farmers, workers and businesses. It's not complicated.

China is going to evolve largely according to its own dynamics. We have limited leverage over that. A little realism about that would help. There are things about China I admire. Things I don't like. We shouldn't be wasting resources on trying to get China to adopt policies that are in their own best interests. If they want to adopt sub-optimal policies, that's their business. The American companies that have elected to do business in China are big boys. They went in there with their eyes wide open and after carefully weighing the pros and cons of doing business there.
 
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thethe said:
You still havent posed an alternative to get China to act
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Isn't that what elected officials are for?


Just because you personally don't have a better solution doesn't mean the current plan is a good one. I don't need to be a doctor to know that amputating your whole arm for a staph infection in your finger, probably isn't the best treatment plan, even if I don't personally have a better option to treat it.
 
thethe said:
There is no other way outside of the military. You know this. Chona has no incentive to change.
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You are talking about a country that has probably changed more than any other in the past 40 years. China changes according to its own internal dynamics. We should be realistic about how little influence we have over that.
 
Carp said:
Isn't that what elected officials are for?


Just because you personally don't have a better solution doesn't mean the current plan is a good one. I don't need to be a doctor to know that amputating your whole arm for a staph infection in your finger, probably isn't the best treatment plan, even if I don't personally have a better option to treat it.
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Unfortunately the other party doesn’t offer an alternative solution so we’ll have to deal with being one-armed
 
btw one of the unintended (as far as I can tell) consequences of the Chosen One's trade wars has been an appreciation of the dollar...which of course works to increase the trade deficit...yes he is a very stable genius
 
nsacpi said:
btw one of the unintended (as far as I can tell) consequences of the Chosen One's trade wars has been an appreciation of the dollar...which of course works to increase the trade deficit...yes he is a very stable genius
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So you think the strong dollar is bad?
 
sturg33 said:
So you think the strong dollar is bad?
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it is a transmission mechanism...I don't think of it in terms of being good or bad

in this particular case the strong dollar reflects two things:

1) policy mixes around the world...generally fiscal easing and monetary tightening work to strengthen our currency...you have to look at our policy mix versus the other country's...not many countries have expanded fiscal policy the way we have the past few years

2) capital inflows and outflows based on perceptions by investors of relative risk...the trade war makes the whole global economy more risky...but as a safe haven a more risky world favors U.S. assets...so flows into those assets makes the dollar stronger

A by-product of the above is a larger trade deficit.

I'm largely indifferent about the dollar and size of the trade deficit (up to a certain point).

But the Chosen One is decidedly not indifferent about the current trade deficit. He sees it as a big problem. But his policies (fiscal expansion, increase in uncertainty due to the trade war) work to strengthen the dollar and increase the deficit.
 
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btw the Chosen One isn't sure about a strong dollar...in the first days of his administration he called Michael Flynn in the wee hours one night (woke him up as a matter of fact) and asked him if a strong dollar was a good thing...Flynn suggested he consult with an economist
 
nsacpi said:
The alternative is to not adopt policies that harm American farmers, workers and businesses. It's not complicated.

China is going to evolve largely according to its own dynamics. We have limited leverage over that. A little realism about that would help. There are things about China I admire. Things I don't like. We shouldn't be wasting resources on trying to get China to adopt policies that are in their own best interests. If they want to adopt sub-optimal policies, that's their business. The American companies that have elected to do business in China are big boys. They went in there with their eyes wide open and after carefully weighing the pros and cons of doing business there.
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And even if this weren’t true, Trump has shown no aptitude that would lead you to believe he has a grand plan that will make us all better off in the end.
 
nsacpi said:
btw the Chosen One isn't sure about a strong dollar...in the first days of his administration he called Michael Flynn in the wee hours one night (woke him up as a matter of fact) and asked him if a strong dollar was a good thing...Flynn suggested he consult with an economist
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Said 2 anonymous sources supposedly familiar with Flynn's accounts of the incident per Huffington Post. But at this late stage in the information war, who cares where it came from. Just propogate it as absolute fact. Orange man definitely bad. So why not.
 
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