Election projection

I guess I triggered the snowflake. You should invest in a joint and chill. We had 4 years of partisan arguing, give it a rest for a few days.
 
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Several states are over 50% voter participation out of voting eligible people. Lets take a look at North Carolina.



4,531,619 votes have been cast
7,342,553 people are registered to vote
There is about a max of 2.8 million left who could vote

Voter Registration of votes cast'
-------------------------------------
37.4% Democrat 1,694,852
31.7% Republican 1,438,129
30.3% Independent 1,374,232
00.5% Third party 24,406



71.7% of voters voted in 2016 3,250,354
29.3% of voters did not vote in 2016 1,281,265

All counties have roughly 67% to 39% of votes cast with the least populated counties being on the lower end. The 47 largest counties heavily favor Dem and are at about 65% of registered voters having voted. Not going to waste my time typing out the county by county data so here is two reference points.


https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html


https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=10/31/2020



I predicted NC for Trump. Democrats have a 400k advantage in registered voters and are looking to pace about 275-300k advantage. So Trump is going to need to pick up about that many more votes from the 2.5 million independents/third party voters of which not all will vote and some will vote third party. I would guess 2.2 million of the 2.5 million will vote. Independents voted 53% for Trump and 37% for Hillary with 8% for Gary Johnson and 2% for other in 2016. If that broke exactly the same I think Trump would squeak out a win by around 50k votes. Only 90% of Democrats voted for Hillary with 8% for Trump and for Republicans 94% voted for Trump and 4% for Hillary. I think Biden will win 95% of Democrats or better this time around and I think the opposite party voting will flip. Trump I think gets 4% of Democrats and Biden 6-8% of Republicans. I also think Biden will do much better than 37% in independents. I would put the floor at 40%. I'll go ahead and predict independents break 44% for Biden and Trump 54% with much less third party voting. If Biden gets 40% of independents and 95% of Democrats I think he narrowly wins. At that rate I would guess under 2 points.
 
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There is no reasoning with people like that. When he is proven wrong he will just say it was voter fraud. I clicked to read this analysis and its just state by state predictions with no real analysis. I found a good source for 2016 independent voting, so going to go back and look at AZ and PA with that information. I hedged my bets on the original prediction but I think Biden will win big and if he doesnt he will just narrowly lose in a few states. 335 electoral votes would be my guess for him at this point. I bought way too much into conventional political wisdom in 2016 that Trump would turn off voters. The Trumpeteers can give me **** all they want but atleast I put predictions out there. If I am wrong I will learn from the mistakes and hopefully be better at it next time around. I called Obama winning when he gave the response to the state of the union address by GWB like 3 years before he won and I said Romney had no chance to beat Obama. I was right about those. Could not have been more wrong in 2016 though although I was rooting for Trump at the time.
 
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sturg33 said:
This is all the left including you does today. Except instead of voter fraud its election rigging or russia!
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You say this while he is literally trying to get votes already thrown out

You’re such a good bootlicker

While speaking of weird, you’re a weird as **** “libertarian”/ “constitutionalist” too lol
 
Tapate50 said:
You two get a room. Or a back rub or something.
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Something like this, m/l??

image-young-hot-brunette-doing-600w-148068497.jpg
 
cajunrevenge said:
Alright people, 10 days till election with about a third of the vote already cast. Lets start with the predictions. I am going to list the states I think each one will win followed by the % I am confident in that result for each state and their number of electoral college votes.



Trump - 210 electoral votes - 60-65 million votes total
------------------------
Alabama 100% 9
Arkansas 100% 6
Idaho 100% 4
Montana 100% 3
Wyoming 100% 3
North Dakota 100% 3
South Dakota 100% 3
Nebraska 100% 5
Kansas 100% 6
Missouri 100% 10
Kentucky 100% 8
Tennessee 100% 11
Alaska 100% 3
Louisiana 100% 8
Mississippi 100% 6
Oklahoma 100% 7
West Virginia 100% 5
Indiana 100% 11
South Carolina 88% 9
Georgia 75% 16
Ohio 65% 18
Iowa 60% 6
Florida 52.5% 29
North Carolina 51% 19



Biden - 328 electoral votes - 69-75 million votes
------------------------
Washington 100% 12
Oregon 100% 7
California 100% 55
New York 100% 29
Maine 100% 11
Rhode Island 100% 4
Connecticut 100% 7
New Jersey 100% 14
Vermont 100% 3
Delaware 100% 3
Maryland 100% 10
DC 100% 3
Illinois 100% 20
Hawaii 100% 4
New Mexico 100% 5
Virginia 100% 13
Massachusetts 100% 11
Colorado 99% 9
Nevada 98% 6
Minnesota 95% 10
Michigan 90% 16
New Hampshire 90% 4
Wisconsin 80% 10
Pennsylvania 62.5% 20
Arizona 55% 11
Texas 52% 38




N1YnW.png





Hopefully we can leave the partisan bickering to other threads. If you dont like my predictions post your own. I am not bothering with the districts whose electoral vote is different than the state. They are too insignificant to put much thought into. Yes I am aware some of my predictions dont jive with the polls. There are reasons for it that I wont go into unless someone really wants to know. My top projection for vote total comes out to 140 million total votes. I know its projected for around 155 million votes. I am comfortable with that gap.
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So lets review. Every state I gave 100% chance to go 1 way did go that way I predicted. Heres where I think I was the most accurate and the most wrong


Texas - Very wrong, but thats why I gave it only 52% chance. If it was even close I would claim to be right on this one no matter which way it went. It wasnt. I expected a higher majority of the increased voter turnout to go for Biden as well as a lot of anecdotal evidence from around Texas. Texas is continuing its trend towards Democrats with the margin of victory closing to 6%. Texas could be a real battleground state as early as 2028 imo and theres a good chance it goes blue in a Presidential election in the next 20 years.


Georgia - I was a little wrong. I gave it a little too high of chance of staying red. It was reported to be close in the polls but any traditionally red state I assume a 2-3 points swing due to voter suppression tactics in favor of Republicans. In hindsight I think I should have put Georiga as a 57.5-60% chance to stay red.


South Carolina - 12% chance to go blue. Thats laughable imo. Should have been 99.9% chance to stay red if not 100%


Ohio - its a pretty solid red state now. I should have put the chance it goes red at 90% or better.


Iowa - I just think my chances were too low. 85% seems more realistic imo.


Florida - also a state going more red. Probably should have put the chances at 75% it stays red.





North Carolina - I gave it the slimmest % to win and it was pretty close. Probably should have gone up to 55% or 60%


Pennsylvania - I think 62.5% chance of going blue was a pretty good prediction based on the margin of victory.


Wisconsin - I think my 80% chance of going blue was pretty accurate. Probably should have been 85%


Arizona - I gave 55% chance to go blue. I think that was pretty accurate.


Michigan - I think 90% chance of going blue was a good predictionm


Minnesota - 95% was pretty good imo


Nevada/Colorado - 98 and 99% is pretty close to a guarantee. Nevada probably should have been lower to about 75%





All in all I think I did about as well as anyone.
 
Vs Trafalgar polling they got PA, AZ, GA, MI, and NV wrong. So I think I beat them worse than Biden beat Trump in the election.
 
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