Estimating Braves final attendance

[Horsehide Harry]

For me, the question isn't if the Braves will get to 2.4 million with the current team. The more interesting (and unknowable) question is would the Braves have gotten to a similar point without hanging on to Teheran, Freeman and Inciarte plus signing Markakis, Colon, Dickey and Johnson and trading for Kemp and Garcia plus rushing up Swanson?

The novelty factor alone of the new park brings fans in but only winning can keep them coming back. The reason for the above was to accelerate the rebuild and it didn't work at least not for 2017 and that has been reflected by the relatively small attendance bump.

I don't believe the Braves will get a significant payroll bump this offseason because the FO and the mouthpieces aren't marketing the offseason that way. We aren't seeing any " hey look at all these young players and with the Braves planning to be big players in the offseason 2018 is going to be really exciting!" That's not happening and it would be happening IF they truly expected to make significant major offseason moves.

 

[thewupk]

Enscheff: your analysis is always excellent. However, I think sometimes you make a leap to a conclusion that doesn't flow cleanly from the data. In this case, you may very well be correct, but there is also the possibility that the Battery will provide some new revenue streams that render the relationship between attendance and payroll not as direct as we might assume.

I suspect it may take a few years to get to that $150M payroll. I don't know, but I don't think we can assume a direct correlation between attendance and payroll.

A few years to get to 150 million is going to cover the cost of inflation. Still going to be a low payroll.

 

[nsacpi]

A few years to get to 150 million is going to cover the cost of inflation. Still going to be a low payroll.

When the stadium was being built, the front office made a number of claims about how this would move the Braves back up to being a top 10 team when it comes to payroll. I wonder how much the variance from those claims reflects the FO being surprised by revenue flows and how much reflects them puffing things up as a PR exercise that they knew was at variance with their projections.

 

[thewupk]

When the stadium was being built, the front office made a number of claims about how this would move the Braves back up to being a top 10 team when it comes to payroll. I wonder how much the variance from those claims reflects the FO being surprised by revenue flows and how much reflects them puffing things up as a PR exercise that they knew was at variance with their projections.

We will have a top 10 payroll in 2020...when comparing it to 2015 payrolls

 

[Buzzworm]

Just imagine what would have happened if they would have sold to Blank instead of to Liberty.Sigh....

 

[Enscheff]

When the stadium was being built, the front office made a number of claims about how this would move the Braves back up to being a top 10 team when it comes to payroll. I wonder how much the variance from those claims reflects the FO being surprised by revenue flows and how much reflects them puffing things up as a PR exercise that they knew was at variance with their projections.

According to pozzies, the FO is never wrong. Therefore, they knew being a Top 10 payroll was never going to happen, and just made the claim as a show.

Also according to pozzies, they never really thought the FO meant it when they said "we envision being a Top 10 payroll", so it can't be considered a lie by the infallible FO.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

When the stadium was being built, the front office made a number of claims about how this would move the Braves back up to being a top 10 team when it comes to payroll. I wonder how much the variance from those claims reflects the FO being surprised by revenue flows and how much reflects them puffing things up as a PR exercise that they knew was at variance with their projections.

I have to believe that the "baseball people" really thought they were going to be given the payroll to be top 10. For me, that's the only way to explain the strategy of a rushed rebuild or reload if you will.

If the Braves had the money to go play in the FA class this year and next then it makes sense to look at a 3 year rebuild window. Otherwise, it was always going to be a 5+ year window to compete again which is at odds with what has been done to this point.

To me, I think the money people MUST have changed the commitment, possibly based on the short term failure to get significantly better, leaving the baseball people lurching for what to do and how to keep their jobs.

 

[Southcack77]

I have to believe that the "baseball people" really thought they were going to be given the payroll to be top 10. For me, that's the only way to explain the strategy of a rushed rebuild or reload if you will.

If the Braves had the money to go play in the FA class this year and next then it makes sense to look at a 3 year rebuild window. Otherwise, it was always going to be a 5+ year window to compete again which is at odds with what has been done to this point.

To me, I think the money people MUST have changed the commitment, possibly based on the short term failure to get significantly better, leaving the baseball people lurching for what to do and how to keep their jobs.

Why do you think the money people have changed the numbers?

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Why do you think the money people have changed the numbers?

Do you mean what motivated them to change the numbers?

Nothing but a guess, but I think someone like the Liberty liaison to Braves management told them what the number would likely be and Braves management took that number and built their strategy around it. That's why we got all the public discussion about increasing the payroll, etc. before the new park was finalized. I also believe that Braves management thought the payroll was going up because that is the only way I can see to reconcile the way they went about the rebuild with any kind of winning strategy. I can't see where Braves management would outright lie to the fans of the Braves and the money and votes behind the stadium and then set out to go through a half assed attempt at a rebuild. I think they expected to get payroll flexibility to really address roster shortcomings on a near term basis and that's why they went for the shortened rebuild or "reload."

The question then becomes did someone with Liberty lie to the Braves management? Was there a change in personnel where then new boss wan't the same as the old boss? I don't think it has anything to do with the sagging attendance because the money did not arrive as expected even before 2017 and certainly was a problem when they had to ask permission to add Adams early in the season when the record was unknown and attendance was mostly still in front of them. Now, failing attendance can be used, after the fact, as an excuse to not add payroll. But, I don't think it was the original driver.