Evan Gattis prediction thread

Very few catchers can consistently put up good numbers. It's why you see so often a catcher have a great year, everyone starts hyping him up and then the next year they fall flat. (Avila, Montero, Ruiz, etc) We have been spoiled by McCann and will feel the effects of it. The catcher that lead the league in homers last year hit 22 and it took 523 abs to do so (Weiters...and he really struggled) I've been reading about how much weight major leaguers lose during a season (worse in places like Atlanta) and it's gotta be much worse for catchers. Gattis had 350 at bats last year, but only caught about 350ish innings compared to McCann, who would catch 1000 innings per year.

Thus, the workload on Gattis is going to be tough for him to handle. Thats not even accounting for his lack of experience behind the plate and how much work he's going to have to put in to be a starting catcher in the big leagues. I think 25 homers with a .240ish BA would be a great season for him (roughly .240/.300/.475). I would predict lower just based on the grind that he's going to have to go through this year.
 
yeezus said:
I kind of think most people, if not everyone but you, are going on the optimistic side. He could realistically hit .225-.230. He could be extremely inconsistent and struggle for long periods.

My prediction was probably optimistic. I don't think we're in terrible shape if he goes .750, though.
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I have no reason to believe that he will be worse than last year. All I see are reasons for why he should improve.
 
50PoundHead said:
Thanks zito. You've provided perfect examples for my unresearched opinion. Catching wears a lot of guys out, as much mentally as physically, and Gattis was barely a full-time catcher in the minors, so I think there is going to be a big adjustment for him in that regard.
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I slide between the optimists and pessimists. The people who think he'll be a low .700 OPS guy are almost certainly wrong unless he somehow bagwell's his power. The people who're overly optimistic are also almost certainly wrong. As you point out catcher is a position that wears on you. Physically and mentally. Gattis already has patience issues, imagine what they'll be like mid season as he's squatting behind the plate sweating his balls off. My brother who caught through college used to talk about how ****ty it was hitting in summer ball when he played in North Carolina. Your focus was screwed up, everything was screwed up. So a guy who hacks who may not be as sharp as possible and I think he'll honestly perform about as well as he did last year, maybe hit for a tad higher average but I think his power takes a bit of a hit. The general projection consensus on him is .770-.800 OPS Though like you pointed out, that doesn't factor in the positional wear.
 
For those that say a big guy can't survive the wear and tear of catching and put up big numbers must have not seen Mike Piazza play.
 
AUTiger7222 said:
For those that say a big guy can't survive the wear and tear of catching and put up big numbers must have not seen Mike Piazza play.
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Mike Piazza 6'3 200 Gattis 6'4 230

Not to mention there may be a decent chance Piazza was using PEDs. Hard to say for sure.

Also comparing someone to a borderline HOFer who's got like 4 years of professional experience is almost always bad.
 
To me, he seemed downward trending towards the end of last year. I don't know if that was a result of scouts catching up to his flaws/tendencies or the fact that he'd never played an entire MLB season.

If he can call solid games behind the plate while continuing to keep base runners honest (the anti-Piazza), I'd be okay with a BA of .260 and at least 25 HRs.
 
zitothebrave said:
Mike Piazza 6'3 200 Gattis 6'4 230

Not to mention there may be a decent chance Piazza was using PEDs. Hard to say for sure.

Also comparing someone to a borderline HOFer who's got like 4 years of professional experience is almost always bad.
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No where in that post did I say that Evan Gattis was going to hit like Mike Piazza or even think it. I was just throwing out the possibility that a big guy can be a catcher and still put up good numbers, or HOF type numbers in Piazza's case.
 
USMA76 said:
To me, he seemed downward trending towards the end of last year. I don't know if that was a result of scouts catching up to his flaws/tendencies or the fact that he'd never played an entire MLB season.

If he can call solid games behind the plate while continuing to keep base runners honest (the anti-Piazza), I'd be okay with a BA of .260 and at least 25 HRs.
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Yet in the playoffs he and Chris Johnson were the only two guys that showed up on offense for the Braves.
 
AUTiger7222 said:
Yet in the playoffs he and Chris Johnson were the only two guys that showed up on offense for the Braves.
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AUTiger7222 said:
No where in that post did I say that Evan Gattis was going to hit like Mike Piazza or even think it. I was just throwing out the possibility that a big guy can be a catcher and still put up good numbers, or HOF type numbers in Piazza's case.
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No one said that he couldn't hit because of being Big. Joe Mauer and Brian McCann are evidence that you can, Mauer of course is 30 and not catching as much anymore and we've sene the injruy issues Mac has had.
 
zitothebrave said:
No one said that he couldn't hit because of being Big. Joe Mauer and Brian McCann are evidence that you can, Mauer of course is 30 and not catching as much anymore and we've sene the injruy issues Mac has had.
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There were some posts talking about Gattis's size.
 
I don't think anyone said that. I reread and didn't see anyone who inferred it in this thread.

The only posts questioning Gattis and lasting didn't mention size it mentioned the drain of being an everyday catch. Not signalling out Gattis, just pointing out that offensive consistency from catcher is not something to count on.
 
As much as I would like to see Gattis put up 25+ HRS and an .800 OPS, I just don't see it. ATL will be fortunate to get around 30 HRs from the catchers again this year (McCann 20, Gattis 8 as a C, Laird 1)

I would guess between 18-22 HRs and .775 OPS.

Here are the MLB HR leaders at catcher and their OPS since 2000:

2013-Wieters........22...OPS .704

2012-Rosario........28...OPS .843

2011-C. Santana...27...OPS .808

2010-McCann........21...OPS .828

2009-M. Olivo.......23...OPS .781

2008-McCann........23...OPS .896

2007-B. Molina......19...OPS .731

2006-McCann........24...OPS .961

2005...Varitek.......22...OPS .856

2004...J. Lopez.....23...OPS .872

2003...J. Lopez.....43...OPS 1.065

2002...Piazza........33...OPS .903

2001...Piazza........36...OPS .957

2000...Piazza........38...OPS 1.012

So you guys thinking that the White Bear will hit over 30 HRs need to pass the :elefant:. That would be a phenomenal feat for a first year full-time catcher.

One other thing I gathered while looking up these stats is that the ATL has been rotten at catcher over the past 20 years with Javy and Mac. Gattis and crew have big shoes to fill.
 
"He told me, 'I think I had too many goals last year,'" Jo Gattis said. "I said, 'Is that right?' And he said, 'Yeah, I only have one goal this year.' I said, 'What's that, Evan?' He goes, 'That's to be the best catcher in baseball.'"
 
I'm not going to doubt a man that has been through so much in his life only to emerge being as successful as he is. I think we need to realize that not only is Gattis an impressive baseball player but he is a special person to overcome what he has. I wouldn't doubt that he can do anything.
 
thethe said:
I'm not going to doubt a man that has been through so much in his life only to emerge being as successful as he is. I think we need to realize that not only is Gattis an impressive baseball player but he is a special person to overcome what he has. I wouldn't doubt that he can do anything.
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That quote is cute and all, but it means very little.
Him overcoming rough times is a positive, but I'm not sure how much it means for his future in baseball.
 
yeezus said:
That quote is cute and all, but it means very little.
Him overcoming rough times is a positive, but I'm not sure how much it means for his future in baseball.
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As Yogi Berra said, "Baseball is 90 percent mental and hte other half is physical"

When you have someone that has overcome so much in his life I don't think failure in baseball is going to get him down. And since failure is something that every player in baseball deals with its good to have the skills to deal with that. Gattis was drafted in 2010. In four years he went from being an afterthought in the 23rd round to the starting catcher of one of the best teams in baseball. To me that means something. The Braves are smart, they could have thrown money at Mac. I think he would have came back for less than what hte Yankees offered him. But, the Braves feel that Gattis is the better long term option (clearly cost came into play here).
 
thethe said:
As Yogi Berra said, "Baseball is 90 percent mental and hte other half is physical"

When you have someone that has overcome so much in his life I don't think failure in baseball is going to get him down. And since failure is something that every player in baseball deals with its good to have the skills to deal with that. Gattis was drafted in 2010. In four years he went from being an afterthought in the 23rd round to the starting catcher of one of the best teams in baseball. To me that means something. The Braves are smart, they could have thrown money at Mac. I think he would have came back for less than what hte Yankees offered him. But, the Braves feel that Gattis is the better long term option (clearly cost came into play here).
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You'll find few people who believe mentality is as important as I think it is. Not just in baseball, or sports, but everything.
However, that doesn't mean he will be able to adjust right to MLB pitching continuously. It remains to be seen.
 
AUTiger7222 said:
No where in that post did I say that Evan Gattis was going to hit like Mike Piazza or even think it. I was just throwing out the possibility that a big guy can be a catcher and still put up good numbers, or HOF type numbers in Piazza's case.
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How many summers did Mike Piazza play in the Georgia heat?
 
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