Due to pitcher aging curves and injury concerns, I've always had a couple of rules when it comes to guaranteeing money to pitchers:
1. Stick to 1-2 year deals on FA pitchers.
2. Don't guarantee money to home grown pitchers into their 30s.
Because of those rules, and their current ages, pitchers like Folty (controlled through age 29) and Newk (controlled through age 30) are not considered extension candidates.
However, young pitchers like Teheran, Soroka, Gohara and maybe Wright are (or were) young enough that guaranteeing them money through their mid/late 20s is worth gaining options over FA years in their late 20s.
MLBTR lists the record extension for pre-arb pitchers: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/extension-records-pre-arbitration.html
These 5+2 deals always tend to be as follows:
- After a SP has 2+ years service time
- Buys out 1 pre-arb year, all 3 arb years, 1 FA year, and 2 options over FA years
- Total guarantee around $30M-$40M by the time these guys need to be addressed
These 5+2 deals are structured like this because it is a huge risk to guarantee money to pitchers, so the club requires additional control over 3 FA seasons at bargain rates as compensation for assuming that risk.
In the case of Gohara, he will have 2+ years of service time after his age 22 season in 2019. A typical 5+2 extension with him will cost something along the lines of 5/35 with 2 options priced around $15M. The contract would break down roughly as follows (more expensive if he turns into a CY award pitcher like Sale or Kluber):
2020 (PA 3), age 23, $1M guaranteed
2021 (Arb 1), age 24, $4M guaranteed
2022 (Arb 2), age 25, $7M guaranteed
2023 (Arb 3), age 26, $10M guaranteed
2024 (FA 1), age 27, $13M guaranteed
2025 (FA 2), age 28, $15M option, $1M buyout
2026 (FA 3), age 29, $16M option, $1M buyout
That puts Gohara on the FA market in time for his age 30 season.
Soroka is a year younger than Gohara, and is expected to make his MLB debut late this year. A similarly structured extension could be worked out with him following his age 22 season in 2020.
Wright is a slightly different case due to being older. He will most likely start his age 22 season in 2018 at AA. He may be ready for MLB action late this season, putting him on the same service time track as Soroka...but 2 years older. In that scenario, the Braves will already control Wright's age 23-28 seasons, and the 5+2 extension following the 2020 season may or may not make sense. If he doesn't debut until the middle of the 2019 season at the age of 23, the Braves already control his age 24-29 seasons, and the 5+2 extension probably doesn't make sense (adding control over his age 30-32 seasons).
Or they just get hurt and none of this matters.
Hopefully it all works out and the Braves are able to lock in the ~10 win Gohara/Wright/Soroka core of the rotation at bargain rates through 2026/2027...at which point they will be due to renegotiate their TV deal.
1. Stick to 1-2 year deals on FA pitchers.
2. Don't guarantee money to home grown pitchers into their 30s.
Because of those rules, and their current ages, pitchers like Folty (controlled through age 29) and Newk (controlled through age 30) are not considered extension candidates.
However, young pitchers like Teheran, Soroka, Gohara and maybe Wright are (or were) young enough that guaranteeing them money through their mid/late 20s is worth gaining options over FA years in their late 20s.
MLBTR lists the record extension for pre-arb pitchers: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/extension-records-pre-arbitration.html
These 5+2 deals always tend to be as follows:
- After a SP has 2+ years service time
- Buys out 1 pre-arb year, all 3 arb years, 1 FA year, and 2 options over FA years
- Total guarantee around $30M-$40M by the time these guys need to be addressed
These 5+2 deals are structured like this because it is a huge risk to guarantee money to pitchers, so the club requires additional control over 3 FA seasons at bargain rates as compensation for assuming that risk.
In the case of Gohara, he will have 2+ years of service time after his age 22 season in 2019. A typical 5+2 extension with him will cost something along the lines of 5/35 with 2 options priced around $15M. The contract would break down roughly as follows (more expensive if he turns into a CY award pitcher like Sale or Kluber):
2020 (PA 3), age 23, $1M guaranteed
2021 (Arb 1), age 24, $4M guaranteed
2022 (Arb 2), age 25, $7M guaranteed
2023 (Arb 3), age 26, $10M guaranteed
2024 (FA 1), age 27, $13M guaranteed
2025 (FA 2), age 28, $15M option, $1M buyout
2026 (FA 3), age 29, $16M option, $1M buyout
That puts Gohara on the FA market in time for his age 30 season.
Soroka is a year younger than Gohara, and is expected to make his MLB debut late this year. A similarly structured extension could be worked out with him following his age 22 season in 2020.
Wright is a slightly different case due to being older. He will most likely start his age 22 season in 2018 at AA. He may be ready for MLB action late this season, putting him on the same service time track as Soroka...but 2 years older. In that scenario, the Braves will already control Wright's age 23-28 seasons, and the 5+2 extension following the 2020 season may or may not make sense. If he doesn't debut until the middle of the 2019 season at the age of 23, the Braves already control his age 24-29 seasons, and the 5+2 extension probably doesn't make sense (adding control over his age 30-32 seasons).
Or they just get hurt and none of this matters.
Hopefully it all works out and the Braves are able to lock in the ~10 win Gohara/Wright/Soroka core of the rotation at bargain rates through 2026/2027...at which point they will be due to renegotiate their TV deal.
