Extension Talks With Swanson Reportedly Underway
- Thread starter CrimsonCowboy
- Start date
DirkPiggler
Well-known member
This is where I'm leaning as well, but it depends on cost.
I'd probably rather pay 6/$120MM for Swanson versus a similar or longer contract at $30MM/yr for Correa if finances are limited. If we're back to the Ted Turner spend it all stage, then go with best player available, which isn't Swanson.
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
This is kind of where I fall as well. He is a very streaky player. And when he is bad, he is among the worst players in the league. However, like we saw for a long stretch this season, he can be among the best players in the league.
Whatever AA decides, I will not be too upset.
But even with this - I'd rather spend at every position and not have large concentrations that impair having a complete team. Thats why Swanson at 20 might be appealing.
chop2chip
Well-known member
But at the same time, he’s 3rd among all shortstops in WAR since 2020 and has a 110 wRC+ during that same time period.
Hudson2
Well-known member
Correa is having a down year and may opt in for another big pay day and hit the SS market alone next year. Xander isn’t really an upgrade over Dansby and will cost more and we know Turner isn’t leaving LAD so going after Swanson now isn’t terrible. Depending on price of course.
Most of that can be attributed to playing the most games over that span. Half of his value over that span has been gained this season. Coming into the year he was borderline top 10 over 2020 and 2021.
Sure, there is value in being healthy and available, but do you honestly believe he's better than Correa, Seager, Bogaerts, or Tatis? I sure don't. I don't think he's remotely close to them. He's probably around the level of Tim Anderson. Would you give Tim Anderson 100+ million right now?
NYCBrave
Well-known member
I'm torn on this one. Love having Swanson on the team, but just don't want to pay him based on his career year he's having this year. Would feel more comfortable paying based on what we can expect to get out of him in the future, and we know free agents contracts don't work that way. Like others have said, I'd probably feel comfortable giving him a QO, and using the money long term elsewhere.
They being said, I don't mind giving Swanson a high AAV if it's for a 4 years or less. 4/100 with an option year or 2 would be completely acceptable. But 6 years for what will be a 29 year old SS whose best season prior to this year was 3.4 fWAR seems like a really bad idea. I'd honestly rather give Turner 200+ million over 6 years than give Swanson 120 over 6.
msstate7
Well-known member
Why toss this season? From 2020-current, he's 3rd among SS in fWAR. That seems like a big sample
Because this season represents roughly half of his WAR value over that time. Why stop at 3 seasons? Why not include the last 4 seasons where he's 10th overall?
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I would take him over Bogaerts and Tatis was juicing.
msstate7
Well-known member
He was on the same pace in 2020. Over 162 games, the pace was 5.9 fWAR
ETA... if you assume the value per game over 162 games the last 3 years, his avg FWAR for the span is 5.4
chop2chip
Well-known member
1. Half the value in a 2.5 year period is in a 1 year period isn’t as remarkable statement as you make it seem. Especially when he was very good last year and basically the same player in 2020 as he is this year.
2. Being healthy is one of the most important factors in long term contracts working out. I wouldn’t dismiss that at all.
3. He’s basically been Lindor the last 3 years in terms of batting and defensive profile (a much better comp that Tim Anderson). Would you give Lindor $100m?
4. Correa, Tatis and Seager are all $30+ Million a year players. If this question is, would I pay Dansby $30m, then no.
The main reason I don't want to give Dansby a big extension is because this is the only "full" season of his career that's he's had a wRC+ over 100. It's also the only full season that's he's had a wOBA over .340. Simply put, he's historically been a very mediocre hitter with good defense. I don't think we should pay him big money based primarily off this season.
It's pretty standard to look at the last 3 years of a players production to see what kind of player you expect them to be the following season. Does anybody care that Swanson wasn't a good hitter in 2019?
He's a top 5 SS in baseball since 2020.
msstate7
Well-known member
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I just don't know what you are expecting. Dansby is a good player on a contending team. We can't pay every position 25 -30 million. If the Braves secure Swanson, then the positional roster is set for the offseason. You can play around the fringes and mainly focus of rotation and bullpen.
Arbitrary endpoints. Swanson has a 110 WRC+ over his last 1427 plate appearances.