Extension Talks With Swanson Reportedly Underway

Seager was $32M and Semien was $25M+. Correa was $35M and will be 30M plus. Lindor was $34M+. Turner will be $35M. Bogaerts will be $25M. If Dans will take a $20M AAV, I think that's a good deal and frankly I love his defense, even though the offense comes and goes. From what I've heard, although Grissom has looked fine at 2B to me, his SS range isn't great, so not sure we have our internal replacement.
 
thewupk said:
It's pretty standard to look at the last 3 years of a players production to see what kind of player you expect them to be the following season. Does anybody care that Swanson wasn't a good hitter in 2019?

He's a top 5 SS in baseball since 2020.
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Dansby was also one of the most unlucky hitters in baseball in 2019 if you look at the delta between wOBA and xWOBA IIRC.

Dansby may be slightly inconsistent month-to-month but he’s been otherwise very consistent for 4 years.
 
The biggest issue is the replacement. Braves either get a glove first guy (Kim from SD) or spend like crazy to shop from the A list.

Thats why Swanson at 20 makes a bit of sense. THe years would suck though.
 
chop2chip said:
1. Half the value in a 2.5 year period is in a 1 year period isn’t as remarkable statement as you make it seem. Especially when he was very good last year and basically the same player in 2020 as he is this year.
2. Being healthy is one of the most important factors in long term contracts working out. I wouldn’t dismiss that at all.
3. He’s basically been Lindor the last 3 years in terms of batting and defensive profile (a much better comp that Tim Anderson). Would you give Lindor $100m?
4. Correa, Tatis and Seager are all $30+ Million a year players. If this question is, would I pay Dansby $30m, then no.
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Lindor has been a good bit better than Swanson on a per game basis over the last 3 years as well as having a history of being an elite overall player. I wouldn't equate them at all.

Health is important, but you can't predict health. I would much rather give a long term deal to an elite player who hasn't been quite as healthy than to an above average player having a career year.
 
thewupk said:
It's pretty standard to look at the last 3 years of a players production to see what kind of player you expect them to be the following season. Does anybody care that Swanson wasn't a good hitter in 2019?

He's a top 5 SS in baseball since 2020.
Click to expand...

The would be standard if one of those seasons wasn't a 60 game season. You just can't take away any real data from 60 games.
 
Okay...I am in the extend Dansby camp, but just a thought...

I saw an article a few months ago (sorry, don't remember where) saying that Jazz Chisolm loved the Braves and was raving about our team. The Marlins fans were furious and were commenting about how you just about have to trade him to Atlanta after that lovefest.

I know the cost to trade for him would be high (maybe too high), but if we were to lose Dansby, would he be a potential fallback? Farfetched, I know, but this discussion made me remember seeing that article. Lots of potential challenges to it, but he is young, has gotten better every year until his injury, and would certainly cost a lot less than the big name guys.

Personally, I would rather keep Dansby, but just a thought.
 
Carp said:
The would be standard if one of those seasons wasn't a 60 game season. You just can't take away any real data from 60 games.
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Why are you ring fencing data that counts only if there is 150+ games within a year?
 
Carp said:
Lindor has been a good bit better than Swanson on a per game basis over the last 3 years as well as having a history of being an elite overall player. I wouldn't equate them at all.

Health is important, but you can't predict health. I would much rather give a long term deal to an elite player who hasn't been quite as healthy than to an above average player having a career year.
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Re: Lindor - sure. But he’s also making $330m over ten years. Otherwise, you are probably getting… 90% of Lindor with Dansby for a 1/3 the cost.

Re: Health - HARD disagree. The number one factor to predict the next injury is the previous injury.
 
Carp said:
The would be standard if one of those seasons wasn't a 60 game season. You just can't take away any real data from 60 games.
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Except you are willing to do the same if an “elite” player misses time due to injury. Come on, man.
 
thethe said:
Why are you ring fencing data that counts only if there is 150+ games within a year?
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I'm not. It has relevance. But it's not anywhere close to a full season. So referencing that as a data point for the argument of "last 3 seasons" is being intentionally misleading. Why are you disregarding 2019 (and earlier) like it didn't happen?
 
Carp said:
The would be standard if one of those seasons wasn't a 60 game season. You just can't take away any real data from 60 games.
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You can't throw it away either. That's why we are looking at all of his numbers since 2020 where he's been a top 5 SS. And if 20 AAV is the mark then he's being paid marketvalue of a 2.5 WAR player.
 
Carp said:
I'm not. It has relevance. But it's not anywhere close to a full season. So referencing that as a data point for the argument of "last 3 seasons" is being intentionally misleading. Why are you disregarding 2019 (and earlier) like it didn't happen?
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Because in forecasting models for everything in life you weight the most recent years much more.
 
Carp said:
I'm not. It has relevance. But it's not anywhere close to a full season. So referencing that as a data point for the argument of "last 3 seasons" is being intentionally misleading. Why are you disregarding 2019 (and earlier) like it didn't happen?
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But 3+ years is ancient history in baseball. Swanson isn't the same player.
 
Carp must hate the Riley extension too. Braves paying him based on his last 260 games. Why weren't they looking at what he did in 2019 and 2020?
 
If the braves are thinking of paying Swanson as a top 5 ss, I'm with carp. At the deal we heard though (6/120), I want em back
 
My concern still is that Dansby has a lot of his value wrapped up in his defense. What does his defense look heading into year 4 of an extension? Thats the issue and not his bat.
 
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