Extent Flowers

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
It is easy to point to the .438 BABIP and say that regression is coming. But there also appears to be some significant real improvement. Last year his strikeout rate dropped to a career low of 28.0% and so far this year it is at 18.4%.

This is his age 31 season and we hold on option for next year at $4 million. I would explore a two-year extension beyond that covering his ages 33-34 seasons at about 6M/year. That is less than the going rate for a 1 win player, which I think is a conservative projection for those two seasons.

Why would Flowers do this? He is a local lad. He has also given credit to our hitting coach for helping him to believe he can be "great again." I'm not sure what the again part is about, but he is obviously happy in Atlanta and grateful for an environment that has allowed him to blossom.

Clearly the ingredients are there for a win-win extension. Our farm system still has no apparent regular catcher of the future. A team friendly contract for a couple more years makes a lot of sense, even if Flowers transitions to a backup catcher role at some point in that period.
 
Offense has been great, but this year I have noticed A LOT more his framing and ability to steal strikes. How yuge would that be for our young pitchers. He has an option for next year, so I would do anything until the off season though.
 
I have been impressed with Flowers this season, his hitting has taken huge steps. And he seems be on everything. I do not know when the next level catcher in the minors will be ready, but I certainly keep Flowers for now. frees up money for other needs.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Offense has been great, but this year I have noticed A LOT more his framing and ability to steal strikes. How yuge would that be for our young pitchers. He has an option for next year, so I would do anything until the off season though.
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Flowers is one of the best in baseball at pitch framing. Statcorner had him at +22 runs in 2015 (2nd in baseball), +13 runs last year (4th in baseball), and so far +13 runs this year which is 1st in baseball.

A couple of things to note. Flowers was obviously the backup last year so he would of likely been +20 again had he been the full time catcher. Fangraphs and Baseball Ref do not count pitch framing into their WAR calculations. ~10 runs generally results in one full win so Flowers can easily be given 2 additional WAR per year on his pitch framing ability.

IMO pitch framing is the most important aspect of a catchers defensively ability right now.

I'm all for extending Flowers if it's at a reasonable rate. Pitch framing was one of the reasons why Lucroy was seen as such a good target as well as being a plus hitter. Well his pitch framing ability has been in decline in recent years and his offense is obviously crap right now. Hopefully that boat has sailed and we try to keep Flowers here a couple more years.
 
I thought he did a mighty fine job catching the knuckler last night. And maybe it is not entirely a coincidence Dickey had his best game with Flowers catching.
 
I would wait before giving him an extension, probably into next year. His defense is no longer a huge plus, though his pitch framing is probably still good, and the BABIP and K rate mean he is likely to regress significantly. If he maintains the K rate all year and continues the offensive performance early next year, then I consider giving him another year or two.
 
thewupk said:
Flowers is one of the best in baseball at pitch framing. Statcorner had him at +22 runs in 2015 (2nd in baseball), +13 runs last year (4th in baseball), and so far +13 runs this year which is 1st in baseball.

A couple of things to note. Flowers was obviously the backup last year so he would of likely been +20 again had he been the full time catcher. Fangraphs and Baseball Ref do not count pitch framing into their WAR calculations. ~10 runs generally results in one full win so Flowers can easily be given 2 additional WAR per year on his pitch framing ability.

IMO pitch framing is the most important aspect of a catchers defensively ability right now.

I'm all for extending Flowers if it's at a reasonable rate. Pitch framing was one of the reasons why Lucroy was seen as such a good target as well as being a plus hitter. Well his pitch framing ability has been in decline in recent years and his offense is obviously crap right now. Hopefully that boat has sailed and we try to keep Flowers here a couple more years.
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Good stuff. I knew his framing was very good but didn't realize it was quite at that level. Yes, I would consider extending him for another couple years. We don't have any catchers on the horizon outside of possibly Alex Jackson, and there are plenty of questions there.
 
Flowers started 35 games, reached base in 34 of those with 15 multi-hit games.
In the 7 of the 8 starts without a hits: walk, walk, walk, HBP, HBP, HBP, 2 HBP
 
I would definitely approach him in the off-season about a 2 year extension, anywhere between 10-15ish million.
 
If he will sign an extension for backup catcher rates, absolutely. If he thinks his uptick in offense makes him a $10M+ per year guy, then no thanks.
 
nsacpi said:
It is easy to point to the .438 BABIP and say that regression is coming. But there also appears to be some significant real improvement. Last year his strikeout rate dropped to a career low of 28.0% and so far this year it is at 18.4%.

This is his age 31 season and we hold on option for next year at $4 million. I would explore a two-year extension beyond that covering his ages 33-34 seasons at about 6M/year. That is less than the going rate for a 1 win player, which I think is a conservative projection for those two seasons.

Why would Flowers do this? He is a local lad. He has also given credit to our hitting coach for helping him to believe he can be "great again." I'm not sure what the again part is about, but he is obviously happy in Atlanta and grateful for an environment that has allowed him to blossom.

Clearly the ingredients are there for a win-win extension. Our farm system still has no apparent regular catcher of the future. A team friendly contract for a couple more years makes a lot of sense, even if Flowers transitions to a backup catcher role at some point in that period.
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To me, he seems a little old and a little too late a bloomer to buy into extending long term.

I think between what you say and thewupk posted about advanced stats he is perhaps a pretty nice trade asset.

It is unlikely his extended years would be significantly higher than the $4m he is getting now and I'm not sure paying for this year's performance in 2021 is the best move.

The alternative is to keep him through 2018, which is also a reasonable way to go for a team that is trying to take a step forward towards contention. It may be that his trade value is no particularly high.
 
smootness said:
I would wait before giving him an extension, probably into next year. His defense is no longer a huge plus, though his pitch framing is probably still good, and the BABIP and K rate mean he is likely to regress significantly. If he maintains the K rate all year and continues the offensive performance early next year, then I consider giving him another year or two.
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I tend to agree you at least wait until next year unless he's willing to sign to something that would definitely be tolerable carrying as a backup catcher.
 
What we need to do is trade him if we can for something good and try to resign him during the offseason.
 
@mlbbowman
Braves top exit velos
Kemp 111.9 - HR on 4/6
Flowers 111.6 - E5 on Wed.
Flowers 110.9 -- 2B on Thurs.
Flowers 110.8 -- 1B on 5/26
 
Enscheff said:
If he will sign an extension for backup catcher rates, absolutely. If he thinks his uptick in offense makes him a $10M+ per year guy, then no thanks.
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I'm not a believer. I'd try to trade him. I wouldn't give him away, but if someone saw a 800+ OPS catcher for 4 million for a year then we might get a useful piece. We have him through age 32. He's a catcher.

If we keep him I would think about tearing up his 4 million option and signing him for 2/15 with a team option for 10 the following year.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I'm not a believer. I'd try to trade him. I wouldn't give him away, but if someone saw a 800+ OPS catcher for 4 million for a year then we might get a useful piece. We have him through age 32. He's a catcher.

If we keep him I would think about tearing up his 4 million option and signing him for 2/15 with a team option for 10 the following year.
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he'd probably do that?
 
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