Extent Freddie

NinersSBChamps said:
And what incentive is there for him to stick around? No chance of ever competing for anything and why would he want to take a discount in the process? I know most athletes don't care about winning, but baseball contracts are guaranteed so he's getting paid regardless. Might as well be on a winning team.
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You're being way too positive, as usual. The Braves are never going to win another game, and the only thing they'll win each year is the reverse pennant chase.

I hope Freddie is ready for 10 decades of losing.
 
Ventura's Stolen Bases said:
You're being way too positive, as usual. The Braves are never going to win another game, and the only thing they'll win each year is the reverse pennant chase.

I hope Freddie is ready for 10 decades of losing.
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Hyperbole much? The front office needs to show Freeman they care about winning and surround him with quality major league players. Maybe winning isn't important to him so in that regard he probably would stick around, but I doubt he's going to do so at a discounted rate. There was a reason he went into pout mode after the roster was gutted and replacement level players were brought in.
 
NinersSBChamps said:
Hyperbole much? The front office needs to show Freeman they care about winning and surround him with quality major league players. Maybe winning isn't important to him so in that regard he probably would stick around, but I doubt he's going to do so at a discounted rate. There was a reason he went into pout mode after the roster was gutted and replacement level players were brought in.
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Alternatively they can placate him by letting him choose who gets to manage and who gets to play third.
 
NinersSBChamps said:
Hyperbole much? The front office needs to show Freeman they care about winning and surround him with quality major league players. Maybe winning isn't important to him so in that regard he probably would stick around, but I doubt he's going to do so at a discounted rate. There was a reason he went into pout mode after the roster was gutted and replacement level players were brought in.
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Yeah...I was joking. You're acting like there is no way that the Braves make the playoffs for 10 years.
 
auyushu said:
Bringing up one terrible deal doesn't make doing so for Freddie less of a bad idea. I'm against long term deals for any player going into their 30s, they pretty much never work out for the teams that give them.

I'm not against extending Freddie when his contract is either up or almost up, but extending him now is a poor decision for two reasons. One is that you have no idea if he will be worth that kind of money once he is 32+, and the other is that you are signing him to an extension at his absolute peak value if you do it right now, so it will cost more money, and likely more years.
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I'd generally agree with that, but I do think Freeman's situation is different for several reasons.

1.) Now that the experiment is over, I think both "sides" (Freddie and his reps and Braves' management) will agree that he's not built for a position change, and he plays the position you usually try to put guys that play "Bat" as they age. Even as he ages, he's going to be better there defensively than someone like Mac or Gattis would have or Kemp will. Freddie at 1B at ages 33-35 is significantly likely to be a better investment than Kemp is in LF until the end of his current contract (ending at roughly the same age).

2.) At some point, the organization is likely going to need to do something to dispel the reputation it has as one that doesn't particularly value its legends. Maddux, Glavine, Niekro, and Gaylord were all nudged out to an extent, and each won their 300th game elsewhere. There have been times Aaron and the organization have been at odds with each other. Yes, those guys (other than maybe Gaylord) are still considered Braves' legends by the public in general, but it sure sucks that the "organization built on pitching" has only one guy who won #300 while pitching for them (Spahnie). Mazzone was pretty much tossed aside (and he's likely to go into the Hall at some point). Way too many of the players that were in Atlanta over the weekend for the Alumni gathering were allowed to leave at the end of their careers and didn't retire as Braves. Watching Freeman hit his 500th (or even 600th) somewhere else will be an unbelievably tough blow - ask Cardinals' fans and former players about a guy named Pujols. Yeah, he made them less flexible because he was only a DH (and Freeman may well be at the end too - but the NL will have it at that point), but can anyone imagine the uproar if Red Sox' management would have allowed Ortiz to leave before he was ready to ride off into the sunset? What about if the Yankees had taken a hard stance and not overpaid Jeter for his last couple of seasons?

3.) Given the recent explosion in salaries, a 33-35 year old Freeman at $25-$27 million a year is about as good a bet to be a "bargain" as there is in the game, and if you wait those 3-4 years to extend him you may well get to the point where he simply CAN'T stay when he'd be making $10+ million more per season somewhere else. Dragging this out will get the Braves right dead in the center of the same situation the Cardinals found themselves in with Pujols. You can make the argument that $80 million is a fair deal for those seasons TODAY, and while they might resist a little, Freeman's reps aren't likely to disagree so strongly that they advise him against taking it. Of course, if he IS this good (and I'm not sure where there's an indicator that he isn't) and he doesn't break another wrist in the next 3-4 years, his reps may well be able to make the case that he deserves the same kind of AAV as Harper and Machado.
 
zbhargrove said:
Says the guy who is open about saying he doesn't even really follow the organization...
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Considering the teams they need to overtake I think it's a safe bet they don't crack the post season for awhile. Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Cardinals, Cubs, and Nationals. Brewers are much improved as well. Pirates are better than the Braves as well.
 
clvclv said:
2.) At some point, the organization is likely going to need to do something to dispel the reputation it has as one that doesn't particularly value its legends. Maddux, Glavine, Niekro, and Gaylord were all nudged out to an extent, and each won their 300th game elsewhere. There have been times Aaron and the organization have been at odds with each other. Yes, those guys (other than maybe Gaylord) are still considered Braves' legends by the public in general, but it sure sucks that the "organization built on pitching" has only one guy who won #300 while pitching for them (Spahnie).
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I want to win ballgames, I give two craps about our players hitting milestones with us if they aren't any good. There is a reason the Yankees haven't done squat until this year for most of the past decade despite having one of baseball's highest payrolls, and that's because they were stupid and gave those kinds of contracts to Jeter and other when they weren't worth it.

And no free agents give a crap about Maddux and Glavine leaving as free agents 15 years ago. And even if it was somehow relevant, Maddux was 37 and Glavine (leaving by his own choice for barely any more money) was 36 in their final years as Braves, SMoltz was 41 and Chipper was 40. The idea that we'd have a rep for pushing away players when they are that old is completely absurd. We've probably been absolutely the most loyal franchise in baseball to our players over the past two decades.

Freddie is going to be 28 at the end of this season and only has 158 HRs currently, he'd have to average 30 HRs a year until he's almost 40 to hit 500 HR, which is pretty unlikely given his career so far.
 
auyushu said:
I want to win ballgames, I give two craps about our players hitting milestones with us if they aren't any good. There is a reason the Yankees haven't done squat until this year for most of the past decade despite having one of baseball's highest payrolls, and that's because they were stupid and gave those kinds of contracts to Jeter and other when they weren't worth it.

And no free agents give a crap about Maddux and Glavine leaving as free agents 15 years ago. And even if it was somehow relevant, Maddux was 37 and Glavine (leaving by his own choice for barely any more money) was 36 in their final years as Braves, SMoltz was 41 and Chipper was 40. The idea that we'd have a rep for pushing away players when they are that old is completely absurd. We've probably been absolutely the most loyal franchise in baseball to our players over the past two decades.

Freddie is going to be 28 at the end of this season and only has 158 HRs currently, he'd have to average 30 HRs a year until he's almost 40 to hit 500 HR, which is pretty unlikely given his career so far.
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So absurd that the thought came directly from "the horse's mouth". The Braves have been referred to as "cheap" by both Perry and Niekro - both were on the doorstep of picking up #300 when they were sent packing. Both also had offered Atlanta a "hometown discount" to stay with the team so they could pick it up here.

As for Freeman getting to 500, I'd be interested to see what the numbers guys here might project for him given his production over the last couple of seasons.
 
nsacpi said:
Any extension starts with his age 32 season. I would project his production beyond age 32 as follows:

32-34 4 WAR/year

35-37 2.5

38-40 1

The going rate is about 8M/win.

That gives an idea of what a fair market extension would look like for those years. I presume the team would be looking for a significant discount over fair market value.
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This seems awfully optimistic to me. I just searched 1B between the ages of 32-34 since 2000...

You project Freeman to put up 12 WAR;

Bagwell-23.3

Thome -23.1

Berkman-16.7

Giambi-14.7

Palmeiro-14.5

Olerud-12.3

--------------------------

Delgado-11.8

Helton-10.5

Cabrera-9.8

Votto-9.4 (more to go)

Pujols-8.5

Teixeira-5.5

Ok.....maybe, but I would put my money on under 12 WAR for aged 32-34 seasons.

Age 35-37:

Palmeiro-11.8

-------------------------

Bagwell- 7.3

Snow- 6.9

Giambi-6

Grace-5.6

yada yada....obviously the 2.5 WAR per season is really optimistic.

Overall, in that group, there are only 6 players to exceed 12 WAR at age 32 and above; Bagwell, Thome, Berkman, Giambi, Palmeiro, Olerud.
 
gilesfan said:
This seems awfully optimistic to me. I just searched 1B between the ages of 32-34 since 2000...

You project Freeman to put up 12 WAR;

Bagwell-23.3
Thome -23.1
Berkman-16.7
Giambi-14.7
Palmeiro-14.5
Olerud-12.3
--------------------------
Delgado-11.8
Helton-10.5
Cabrera-9.8
Votto-9.4 (more to go)
Pujols-8.5
Teixeira-5.5

Ok.....maybe, but I would put my money on under 12 WAR for aged 32-34 seasons.

Age 35-37:

Palmeiro-11.8
-------------------------
Bagwell- 7.3
Snow- 6.9
Giambi-6
Grace-5.6

yada yada....obviously the 2.5 WAR per season is really optimistic.

Overall, in that group, there are only 6 players to exceed 12 WAR at age 32 and above; Bagwell, Thome, Berkman, Giambi, Palmeiro, Olerud.
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Here's one going back a little further:

Willie Stargell age 32-34: 18.5 wins

Age 35-37: 6.4 wins
 
clvclv said:
So absurd that the thought came directly from "the horse's mouth". The Braves have been referred to as "cheap" by both Perry and Niekro - both were on the doorstep of picking up #300 when they were sent packing. Both also had offered Atlanta a "hometown discount" to stay with the team so they could pick it up here.

As for Freeman getting to 500, I'd be interested to see what the numbers guys here might project for him given his production over the last couple of seasons.
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If he can stay healthy (which has been iffy for him of course) I can easily see him hitting 35-40 HR a year for the next 4-5 years, it's just the 20something HR he'll likely hit from 35+ due to normal injuries and age related slowdown that make me think he doesn't have a shot at 500. That plus Freddie has such a pure hitters stroke rather than a sluggers stroke if that makes sense, I think he's just too much of an awesome line drive hitter to smack the 45+ HRs a year he'd need to make up for those 20 HR seasons he had early on.

And I was calling the notion absurd that any players that are playing now would think the Braves are cheap or not loyal to their players. No player today is going to care what players that played over 30 years ago thought about them being cheap (under a different owner no less). It has zero relevance. Players are either going to sign with the highest bidder, or they will be willing to sign Julio type extensions with us that buy out their first couple years of FA. What Phil Niekro thinks about the Braves being cheap back in the mid 80s has zero bearing on that. Freddie Freeman was born after Niekro retired for goodness sakes.

And Glavine, Maddux, Smoltz, and Chipper were all paid fair market value contracts while they were Braves, so they would have nothing to complain about.
 
auyushu said:
If he can stay healthy (which has been iffy for him of course) I can easily see him hitting 35-40 HR a year for the next 4-5 years, it's just the 20something HR he'll likely hit from 35+ due to normal injuries and age related slowdown that make me think he doesn't have a shot at 500. That plus Freddie has such a pure hitters stroke rather than a sluggers stroke if that makes sense, I think he's just too much of an awesome line drive hitter to smack the 45+ HRs a year he'd need to make up for those 20 HR seasons he had early on.

And I was calling the notion absurd that any players that are playing now would think the Braves are cheap or not loyal to their players. No player today is going to care what players that played over 30 years ago thought about them being cheap (under a different owner no less). It has zero relevance. Players are either going to sign with the highest bidder, or they will be willing to sign Julio type extensions with us that buy out their first couple years of FA. What Phil Niekro thinks about the Braves being cheap back in the mid 80s has zero bearing on that. Freddie Freeman was born after Niekro retired for goodness sakes.

And Glavine, Maddux, Smoltz, and Chipper were all paid fair market value contracts while they were Braves, so they would have nothing to complain about.
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Lol I can't believe you had to explain this.
 
gilesfan said:
This seems awfully optimistic to me. I just searched 1B between the ages of 32-34 since 2000...

You project Freeman to put up 12 WAR;

Bagwell-23.3

Thome -23.1

Berkman-16.7

Giambi-14.7

Palmeiro-14.5

Olerud-12.3

--------------------------

Delgado-11.8

Helton-10.5

Cabrera-9.8

Votto-9.4 (more to go)

Pujols-8.5

Teixeira-5.5

Ok.....maybe, but I would put my money on under 12 WAR for aged 32-34 seasons.

Age 35-37:

Palmeiro-11.8

-------------------------

Bagwell- 7.3

Snow- 6.9

Giambi-6

Grace-5.6

yada yada....obviously the 2.5 WAR per season is really optimistic.

Overall, in that group, there are only 6 players to exceed 12 WAR at age 32 and above; Bagwell, Thome, Berkman, Giambi, Palmeiro, Olerud.
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As I said a dozen posts ago, extending 1B sluggers into their mid/late 30s is almost always a bad idea.

The Braves would be wise to let Freeman walk after his current extension expires.
 
No

Albert Pujols, Mark Teixeira, Derrek Lee. 3 recent examples of how far off a cliff a 1B can fall in his early to mid 30s. Big bodied players don't tend to age super well.

Freddie is signed toa nice contract. As a mid-market team we can't afford to tie up blockbuster money in an aging veteran like the Yankees or Red Sox. We just can't. Freeman will likely still be very good at the end of his contract and he'll go have someone else pay him a lot of money. And I'll be happy for him and sad ot see him go but that's what you deal with as a mid-market team. You have to say goodbye to players you don't want to see go. I didn't want Mac to leave but we couldn't afford to pay him what the Yankees did.
 
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