FA SP Targets

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
MLBTR just released their Top 50 FAs article: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html

We can use it to zero in on the FA SPs we think AA is going to target. I'll post the 2022/2023 xwOBA of every SP on the list, as well as what MLBTR projects for their next contract.

The first group are guys who declined a QO, and I think AA will stay away from them. These guys will also likely command a contract longer than AA is hopefully willing to give a FA SP. The exception could be someone like Gray or Nola who asks for too much and has to settle for a 1 year pillow deal.

Ohtani (.277, 12/528) - not happening
Nola (.280, 6/150) - AA probably won't go 5 years, but if Nola holds out for 6+ years he may find himself taking a pillow deal.
Snell (.291, 7/200) - I expect someone to do something very stupid to sign Snell.
Gray (.297, 4/90) - My pick of the offseason to be the guy the QO hurts the most, may need a pillow deal.

This next group is the FAs without a declined QO weighing down their value. This is the aisle I expect AA to be shopping.

Maeda (.300, 2/36) - a better option than I previously considered (admittedly I didn't consider him at all), short deal may be a great fit.
Montgomery (.310, 6/150) - probably not getting 5+ years from AA.
Rodriguez (.312, 4/82) - he fits well on this roster, just like he would have at the deadline, but probably not at 4 years.
Stroman (.312, 2/44) - legit option depending on years.
Lugo (.314, 3/42) - my odds-on favorite for AA to sign.
Lorenzen (.319, 2/22) - decent filler option on a short deal.
Clevinger (.322, 2/26) - right on the edge of being good enough to bother with, especially with the injury scare this year.
Wacha (.324, 3/36) - walked away from 3/18.5...not sure he's good enough to bother with for more than backend filler.
Giolito (.324, 2/44) - he really killed his value this year.
Flaherty (.343, 3/40) - no thanks.

So given all that info, I think the realistic list of FA options is: Maeda, EdRod, Stroman, Lugo and Lorenzen...all depending on contract length with shorter obviously being better.
 
Something about Hyun Jin Ryu feels like he might be a guy AA goes after. AA was in LA while Ryu was there. Ryu came back last season to make 11 starts after TJS.

FB averages 88 mph now days, so a 1 year deal for cheap is something that AA might offer. Then you can use Ryu, Smith-Shawver, Soroka, as your #5.

That doesn't really move the needle however.
 
I think Gray is the only one with a QO that AA would consider. Gray, ERod, Montgomery, and Stroman, are the FA in that order that I’d want and I think Montgomery gets to many years.
 
AA likes to think a year ahead most of the time. With Fried having 1 year left he’s not gonna want to go into next offseason needing to fill his ace role in the rotation and everybody knowing that. I could see him trying to get that replacement this offseason.
 
Hudson2 said:
AA likes to think a year ahead most of the time. With Fried having 1 year left he’s not gonna want to go into next offseason needing to fill his ace role in the rotation and everybody knowing that. I could see him trying to get that replacement this offseason.
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That’s exactly what i am thinking other option extend Fried and add someone cheaper.
 
I’m not saying AA won’t go after Nola or Snell (though I find it highly unlikely), this idea that either guy “replaces” Fried is not sound logic. Fried is at least a whole tier above any current FA, and if AA was willing to give a SP upwards of $200M I’d rather he just pony up for Fried next offseason and get the superior player.
 
Enscheff said:
I’m not saying AA won’t go after Nola or Snell (though I find it highly unlikely), this idea that either guy “replaces” Fried is not sound logic. Fried is at least a whole tier above any current FA, and if AA was willing to give a SP upwards of $200M I’d rather he just pony up for Fried next offseason and get the superior player.
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I thinking is risky to wait until next year.
 
Being bounced 2 years in a row by the Phillies may make AA pony up for a legit option rather than another number 4 starter.
 
Its being reported that the Braves are picking up the option on Morton which makes me believe he is coming back. That said, I think we still need to think ahead rather than wait until our backs are against the wall next year. God forbid something happens to Strider and Fried leaves. I think Jordan Montgomery at 6 years 150 million is the most likely option this offseason given he is from Georgia, we desperately need a LHSP, and his playoff success. I think Nola at 6 years 150 million is a fairly good option but probably not going to happen due to qualifying offer. I like Yamamoto but dont think the Braves will even seriously entertain it. If Gray can be had for 4 years 90 million I think AA could bite. I wont rule out Snell but I think the odds a really low.
 
msstate7 said:
At some point, AA is gonna have to take a risk... I think it's this offseason with Nola
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Yeah, this. Not sure it's Nola or Snell but he's gonna have to go above his ways at some point. Getting bounced in the 1st round the last 2 years may do it, but i wont count on it until i see it.
 
ixiXSolidXixi said:
Any idea the price for Shane Bieber? One year left of his contract.
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Some interesting trade options with one year of control out there - Burnes, Glasnow, Bieber for sure. I just don’t know if AA wants to do that. If you give up prospects for one of those, then you head into 2025 likely without Fried, Morton and whoever you trade for. That’s a ton to replace in one offseason.
 
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