FA SP Targets

I agree he more than likely wants 6 years, but what if AA front loads a 4yr contract worth 30mil aav? That's something I think AA would jump on.
 
ixiXSolidXixi said:
Different players but AA trade for Tulo with 30 years old. Burnes just turn 29… I think Burnes get $30 to $35 millions a year during free agent. I doubt we add someone like him. I think Eduardo Rodriguez make more sense.

Burnes is more a top of the rotation guy and we have Strider. I think Freddy Peralta make more sense for 2024. Probably cheaper and younger.
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Check Tulowitzki's stat line in Toronto. I'm not saying it was a terrible deal, but Anthopoulos didn't give up a whole lot for Tulowitzki. Castro and Hoffman are still playing, but they both have a lot of stickers on their baseball suitcases. Add to that, Reyes was pretty much toast at that point in his career.

And position players--while age is a concern--aren't as risky as a pitcher approaching 30 unless there's been a major injury.
 
Toronto was a different situation. They had to go for it while they could. They were never going to be perennial winners. They got a few very good players on very team friendly deals and their contention window was basically until those contracts ran out.
 
cajunrevenge said:
Toronto was a different situation. They had to go for it while they could. They were never going to be perennial winners. They got a few very good players on very team friendly deals and their contention window was basically until those contracts ran out.
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That too. A lot of how the Braves will approach this off-season will be determined by how the judge their contention window. I think it's going to be a measured off-season that adds without accelerating.
 
The only SP capable of altering the contention window is Yamamoto. If AA gives him $200M for his age 25-35 seasons and he works out as a 4+ win SP to pair with Strider, the contention window is wide open throughout the Acuna/Albies years. If the Braves are forced to cobble together rotations with expensive short term deals for 2 win SPs the window likely closes sooner.

Will an elite Asian talent come to Atlanta? That’s the sticking point, even though folks around here will never admit it, but he’s the only FA available that can change the window. He might be worth paying $200M plus another $40M to his old team.
 
Enscheff said:
The only SP capable of altering the contention window is Yamamoto. If AA gives him $200M for his age 25-35 seasons and he works out as a 4+ win SP to pair with Strider, the contention window is wide open throughout the Acuna/Albies years. If the Braves are forced to cobble together rotations with expensive short term deals for 2 win SPs the window likely closes sooner.

Will an elite Asian talent come to Atlanta? That’s the sticking point, even though folks around here will never admit it, but he’s the only FA available that can change the window. He might be worth paying $200M plus another $40M to his old team.
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I’d agree. If he was closer to 30 I wouldn’t even think about it but at 25 that’s a game changer. The Mets are terrible and his people know that but Senga might be able to lure him there. And wherever Ohtani goes he may follow bc of their friendship and history. Atlanta doesn’t seem like a destination he’d choose at first glance but if you wanna win and for a long time then this is the place to be. And we can compete with a competitive offer to him unlike years past. AA is in about as good of a position to be in as you can get.
 
50PoundHead said:
That too. A lot of how the Braves will approach this off-season will be determined by how the judge their contention window. I think it's going to be a measured off-season that adds without accelerating.
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I think they are concerned with being a perennial winner rather than contention windows. As we saw in 2021 any team that makes the playoffs has a punchers chance. We could sign some really bad contracts that ensure we are **** in 5 years but would help our chances for the next couple years but I don't think that's the route they go.
 
Tapate50 said:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lest-we-forget-frankie-montas/

Large article from FG about Montas rebound from shoulder surgery. While it raises flags, he could be the cheap prove it deal we could be looking for in FA. You'd have to get another guy I think just in case his arm falls off, but for high end production on the cheap you can't do much better.
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Saw that. Another guy who could be a really good depth option with ceiling for more. Would be nice to grab one or two options like Montas on rebound deals, plus a sturdier addition to the rotation.
 
Guys like Montas tend to go to rebuilding teams where they can be guaranteed innings and are then flipped at the deadline.
 
It might also be instructive to look at the FA SP crop next year: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/04/2024-25-mlb-free-agents.html

Bieber (30)
Buehler (30)
Burnes (30)
Fried (31)
Glasnow (30)
Wheeler (35)
Woodruff (32)

And that doesn't include Morton, Scherzer and Verlander.

That's a massive list of TOR guys in their 30s who are going to command 5+ year deals topping $200M. Next year is the time to go SP shopping if you want a TOR guy.
 
Enscheff said:
It might also be instructive to look at the FA SP crop next year: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/04/2024-25-mlb-free-agents.html

Bieber (30)
Buehler (30)
Burnes (30)
Fried (31)
Glasnow (30)
Wheeler (35)
Woodruff (32)

And that doesn't include Morton, Scherzer and Verlander.

That's a massive list of TOR guys in their 30s who are going to command 5+ year deals topping $200M. Next year is the time to go SP shopping if you want a TOR guy.
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Even if we do get a Nola, Gray, or whoever this year we are gonna be losing Morton and Fried next year so I suspect we’ll be in for a TOR starter next year too.
 
Hudson2 said:
Even if we do get a Nola, Gray, or whoever this year we are gonna be losing Morton and Fried next year so I suspect we’ll be in for a TOR starter next year too.
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Probably, but my point was that it would be silly to give a SP a 5 year deal this year when there are much better candidates for such a deal next year. This is the year to give out a 2-3 year deal.
 
Enscheff said:
Probably, but my point was that it would be silly to give a SP a 5 year deal this year when there are much better candidates for such a deal next year. This is the year to give out a 2-3 year deal.
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Gray would be ideal for that but it’ll depend on if AA is comfortable losing the picks and international money.
 
Hudson2 said:
Gray would be ideal for that but it’ll depend on if AA is comfortable losing the picks and international money.
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So he’s not ideal after all.

Unfortunately, outside of Ohtani, I don’t see an FA for whom it seems worth it to trade two picks (and the associated bonus $) plus another $1m in international cash. Next year is a different story—and I really don’t think the Braves want to pay those QO CBT-payer penalties two seasons in a row.
 
jpx7 said:
So he’s not ideal after all.

Unfortunately, outside of Ohtani, I don’t see an FA for whom it seems worth it to trade two picks (and the associated bonus $) plus another $1m in international cash. Next year is a different story—and I really don’t think the Braves want to pay those QO CBT-payer penalties two seasons in a row.
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I wouldn’t give all of that up either. We have the money so just use that instead of depleting the farm. That’s why Yamamoto keeps coming up bc he’s young, ace quality, and only costs money.
 
Enscheff said:
Probably, but my point was that it would be silly to give a SP a 5 year deal this year when there are much better candidates for such a deal next year. This is the year to give out a 2-3 year deal.
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So it seems we're on the same side of the SP issue
 
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