Fangraphs Braves Prospect List

Hey guys. I haven't posted in a couple days but I have now seen Harris play. Saw him the other day.

He is a certified, grade A, premium prospect.

Taylor approved.

Like I've said, Enscheff is right about Waters. Hopefully we trade his frumpy butt before the helium comes out of his prospect balloon.

Acuna-Pache-Harris is going to be a top 2 or 3 OF in the game. Maybe number 1.

No brainer number 1 if Pache can just be an average bat, which he's not right now.
 
Enscheff said:
I'm unsure where this narrative that Waters has Lamb type power comes from. Has anyone looked at the power numbers for Lamb at the MiLB level?

Everyone realizes that Pache, a guy maligned for his lack of power, hit more HRs (12) than Waters (7) in 2019....right?

It's baffling to see this fascination with a player who is supposedly some great power/speed combo with a terrible approach that doesn't actually display any power. If he is the next Jeff Francoeur without Francoeur's power, what kind of player does that even leave? Literally the worst cOFer in the sport? Someone fighting for a 5th OF spot?

Sorry, but I just don't see how folks are continually fooled by the "he just needs to learn how to hit" line applied to every single toolsy OFer who can't hit and then predictably fails as an MLB contributor.

An .840 OPS buoyed by a .436 BABIP is the least impressive offensive line imaginable for a supposed "impact bat".
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Jake Lamb pretty much had twice the ISO and HRs in his age 22 season in the minors.

And he struck out far less.

In the big leagues, Jake Lamb never posted a WAR above 3, and his BABIP was under .300 every year except one.

So the power is not close, the strikeouts are far worse, and he's much luckier than a guy that, at peak, was a slightly above average third baseman.

I would be shocked if Drew Waters ever posts a WAR above 1.
 
Everyone seems down on Drew Waters. I still like him better than Pache. I wont be surprised if Waters is the starting CFer in 5 years.
 
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50PoundHead said:
I'm admittedly a little low on Waters. Curious to see how his 2021 goes. I think he's a big league player. I'm just concerned about the K/BB ratios and those don't tend to get better when you reach the majors.. Exit velocities don't lie, but they also don't matter if you don't make solid contact consistently. The game is all about adjustments, so if he makes them, he's likely a contributor.

Nice list. I don't know the reason why the Braves put the Cone of Silence over their alternate site and the instructional league. A bit surprised to see Paolini on the list and Backstrom not and really surprised at Tyler Owens' absence. I see from the text that there will be a Dominican Summer League and I wonder what the restrictions will be in that league pertaining to roster size and age-out regulations.
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I like the kid enough. I do. But I remember watching him and thinking....he's Jordan Schafer part deux. I think it was more of the arrogance thing than even the performances I've seen.

All that being said, the times he was locked in was pretty dang good. The kids can play but I've always had Pache higher. The two together were funny...but business. I'm hoping Waters gets to his next tier. Contact will be huge obviously but he does a lot of things well.

Cajun...I think you're waaayyy off. Time will tell though. If he's starting in cf in 5 years, the Braves are doing it wrong.
 
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Waters appears to be a high BABIP hitter. That makes it a little difficult to evaluate his baseline. A BABIP of .350 or higher can cure a lot of deficiencies.
 
I was surpised RHP Tyler Owens wasn't on the list. He was an over-slot signing post-Round 10 in 2019. He's a little shorter than Vodnik, but was highly-ranked out of high school and would have been ranked higher except for his size.
 
I think performing well, albeit with a high BABIP at age 20 in AA is a good sign. We all would have liked to see a better AAA but that follows his normal trajectory of crushing the league he starts in and then struggling early after the promotion.

Bat to ball skills with high impact seems to me like it’s a great trait to have. We will see if Waters can hit major league pitching soon enough.
 
So I'm getting confused... (JK) Is BABIP just a measure of luck, making a high BABIP bad, or is it a sign of solid contact and exit velocity, making it good?

We use it a lot, but it can mean different things.
 
mfree80 said:
So I'm getting confused... (JK) Is BABIP just a measure of luck, making a high BABIP bad, or is it a sign of solid contact and exit velocity, making it good?

We use it a lot, but it can mean different things.
Click to expand...

A player’s BABIP should fall within a certain range depending on his average EV. Obviously, the harder the player hits the ball, the more likely it is to be a hit. Anything that is above or below that line is attributed to luck, as a general rule.

Problem is, there isn’t Statcast data for minor leaguers, so we can’t really make a determination on the kind of contact Waters makes as of yet.
 
mfree80 said:
So I'm getting confused... (JK) Is BABIP just a measure of luck, making a high BABIP bad, or is it a sign of solid contact and exit velocity, making it good?

We use it a lot, but it can mean different things.
Click to expand...

It can mean a lot of things. If a player strikes out a lot, his BABIP may look impressive because he's not putting balls in play. If a player walks a lot, there can be a disconnect between his OBP and BABIP. I think BABIP is a decent face-value indicator, but one has to look at it in context with the other dynamics of a player's performance. I believe where it comes in handy is when one looks at a player's long-term BABIP and compares that to what might be happening over a week or month. That can give one an idea of whether correction in either direction is likely.
 
A .436 mark is due for correction. And when a player posts a .436 mark, he better be doing a lot more production than an .840 OPS.

Oh, and when that player is called a power/speed combo, he should probably hit as many HRs as the defensive specialist next to him everyone said needs to improve his power.
 
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He hit 35 doubles in a little over 100 games as 20 year old in AA. That’s pretty good.
 
Enscheff said:
I'm unsure where this narrative that Waters has Lamb type power comes from. Has anyone looked at the power numbers for Lamb at the MiLB level?

Everyone realizes that Pache, a guy maligned for his lack of power, hit more HRs (12) than Waters (7) in 2019....right?

It's baffling to see this fascination with a player who is supposedly some great power/speed combo with a terrible approach that doesn't actually display any power. If he is the next Jeff Francoeur without Francoeur's power, what kind of player does that even leave? Literally the worst cOFer in the sport? Someone fighting for a 5th OF spot?

Sorry, but I just don't see how folks are continually fooled by the "he just needs to learn how to hit" line applied to every single toolsy OFer who can't hit and then predictably fails as an MLB contributor.

An .840 OPS buoyed by a .436 BABIP is the least impressive offensive line imaginable for a supposed "impact bat".
Click to expand...

Very young. Switch hitting. Elite bat speed. Good hand eye coordination.
Pache didn’t hit a single hr for his first several years.

Not a lot of at bats with the happy fun ball.

I think he’s going to have power
 
Harris on tv today...that man does not look 20. Looks like a guy that is going to grow to a corner with a powerful frame
 
nsacpi said:
Waters appears to be a high BABIP hitter. That makes it a little difficult to evaluate his baseline. A BABIP of .350 or higher can cure a lot of deficiencies.
Click to expand...

I think there has to be a happy medium between taking his BABIP at face value and completely discounting his production for the level at his age.

Yeah, he's not going to keep up what he was doing, but it was still somewhat impressive.
 
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