Fangraphs midseason prospect updates

Super said:
Wren "has" two prospects basically. all prospects combined...Coppy's will do better.
it does say a lot that Wren's only two guys were lottery ticket international signings that happened to work out with little-to-no input from Wren himself. classic.
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Braves should bring back a former Golden Wren in Mike Minor since he's been really good since leaving Atlanta.
 
Enscheff said:
The only real positive movers of note are Pache and Waters gaining a half grade of FV due to advancing levels and being closer to the MLB level.
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That’s pretty big for their “bust potential”, right? Especially for Pache’s?

I can’t remember which recent thread included that FV and bust/star-rate chart, but I feel like FV60 was a decent jump down in bust-rate from FV55.
 
jpx7 said:
That’s pretty big for their “bust potential”, right? Especially for Pache’s?

I can’t remember which recent thread included that FV and bust/star-rate chart, but I feel like FV60 was a decent jump down in bust-rate from FV55.
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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

"Bust" is obviously a subjective term, but as FG defines it the historical difference between a FV 60 position prospect and a FV 55 guy is 36.5% to 31.8%. To me, the column that matters is the > 10 WAR one, since below average players can be snagged at almost any time by almost any team. By that measure, 55s-65s are roughly equivalent, and a decent step up from the generic FV 50 guy.

A couple huge grains of salt...

1. "Bust" being defined as <1 WAR for their MLB career is a pretty low bar. The bar had to be set somewhere, but that's as low as it can be set.

2. FG (Kiley in particular) is the biggest advocates for Pache in the public sphere. The "Pillar floor" comments were silly, and they aren't going to back off now.
 
The prospects seems to line up so well with what we are going to need in the future. I really like Pache and Waters. Along with Riley I think we have 3 young cheap position players to plug into the lineup that are highly likely to be average or better players. I dont know where we are going to be spending money in the short term. We dont seem interested in paying big money to closers. I like some of the FA SP options coming up like Wheeler and Bumgarner but we have so many options for the rotation already and they might even pick up Teheran's option. I think the Braves need to strike while the window is open and try to bring in an elite FA like Rendon. That leaves 2 spots for Riley/Waters/Pache to compete over. Odds are injury and under performance will get them all a chance to get significant playing time.
 
Enscheff said:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

"Bust" is obviously a subjective term, but as FG defines it the historical difference between a FV 60 position prospect and a FV 55 guy is 36.5% to 31.8%. To me, the column that matters is the > 10 WAR one, since below average players can be snagged at almost any time by almost any team. By that measure, 55s-65s are roughly equivalent, and a decent step up from the generic FV 50 guy.

A couple huge grains of salt...

1. "Bust" being defined as <1 WAR for their MLB career is a pretty low bar. The bar had to be set somewhere, but that's as low as it can be set.

2. FG (Kiley in particular) is the biggest advocates for Pache in the public sphere. The "Pillar floor" comments were silly, and they aren't going to back off now.
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Thanks for re-linking.

To so extent, then, the bump of Waters from 50 to 55 is a bigger deal, then. But you’re right: one win is a pretty generous threshold for “bust”.
 
Waters is the guy I want to succeed the most. I think we really need a guy that can really hit from the left side. I'm not saying he will do that, but he is really the only guy that fits that bill IMO.

Pache I've always been more skeptical of the bat because the published reports were so disparate. This year has been fantastic but he still seems like a guy that is not going to be a top half of the order hitter as a young guy. He's a guy who could well continue to develop and I'd really like to have his late 20s years with the bat.

It would take something really special and really controlled for me to consider trading Pache or Waters at this point. I'd much rather trade Riley. I just think we could replace 3B much easier than we could LH mashing OF who can also play great defense.
 
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It does seem like a quirk-if not a failure- of this rebuild to have such an issue with pitching.

The Braves look to be locked down, long term at almost every position spot. When the Braves do spend big it looks more and more like it might be for a pitcher and that seems absurd given the Coppy strategy.
 
jpx7 said:
Thanks for re-linking.

To so extent, then, the bump of Waters from 50 to 55 is a bigger deal, then. But you’re right: one win is a pretty generous threshold for “bust”.
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Probably, but Pache is tracking pretty much how everyone hoped he would track. BB rate going up. K rate going down. BABIP is nothing crazy considering the qaulity of defense in AA. His CF defense is assumed to still be elite. Things almost couldn't be going any better while still being reasonably expected.

He's at 250 PAs in AA, still using the dead ball (compared to AAA/MLB), and is performing well at the age of 20.5 years old.

Folks are right to be legitimately excited about Pache. He is on track to be an option sometime in 2020. I'm guessing Ender gets a little time next year to prove he's back, and then it will be Pache's turn.
 
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Wait, I thought you didn't want to extend a pitcher passed arbitration because they were ticking time bombs.

It appears my whole life is a lie.
 
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