Fangraphs Top 100 Prospects

smootness said:
What is the 'push' you're talking about? Was it in terms of roster construction, or in terms of in-game moves?
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Bringing up Swanson when he wasn't breaking the doors down in in AA and trading for Kemp midseason rather than waiting until the offseason were both definitely moves to make a push to "finish strong" as well as the managing the bullpen like crazy part with Snitker.
 
From Longenhagen's chat yesterday

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-pie/

1:03
Sonny: What level of consistency do you need to see from Max Fried to feel comfortable moving him up in the rankings?
1:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Probably like half a season? That’s a long enough time of sustained stuff to feel good about him being that guy consistently.

Which is pretty much what most around here have said in regards to Frieds ranking.
 
A guy I think is getting overlooked a lot is Joey Wentz. I see him as having the potential to have stuff at least every bit as good as Anderson except coming from the left side. I think the only real reason you see Anderson get ranked so much higher on lists is because of draft position. They were similarly ranked on a lot of pre-draft lists with business considerations being the main reason for the difference in draft positions. Anderson could be signed way under slot and other teams passed on Wentz because of the money he was demanding.

Personally, I'm higher on Wentz mainly because he's a lefty.
 
striker42 said:
A guy I think is getting overlooked a lot is Joey Wentz. I see him as having the potential to have stuff at least every bit as good as Anderson except coming from the left side. I think the only real reason you see Anderson get ranked so much higher on lists is because of draft position. They were similarly ranked on a lot of pre-draft lists with business considerations being the main reason for the difference in draft positions. Anderson could be signed way under slot and other teams passed on Wentz because of the money he was demanding.

Personally, I'm higher on Wentz mainly because he's a lefty.
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I think part of the problem with Wentz is that twice now he's had his arm go sort of dead for a period of time. That's at least somewhat worrisome. This year will be big for him, to see if he can sustain his stuff through an entire year.
 
striker42 said:
A guy I think is getting overlooked a lot is Joey Wentz. I see him as having the potential to have stuff at least every bit as good as Anderson except coming from the left side. I think the only real reason you see Anderson get ranked so much higher on lists is because of draft position. They were similarly ranked on a lot of pre-draft lists with business considerations being the main reason for the difference in draft positions. Anderson could be signed way under slot and other teams passed on Wentz because of the money he was demanding.

Personally, I'm higher on Wentz mainly because he's a lefty.
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I do like Wentz, I'm just concerned that his velocity seems to fluctuate so much. He had the dead arm thing last spring, too. I'd guess that's also a reason he isn't really talked about with many prospect lists yet.
 
auyushu said:
Oh, no doubt. I was just pointing out the consistent refrain that signing Lewis would have cost us Muller or Wentz simply wasn't true. I would much rather have seen us sign Lewis or Groome over Anderson, but none of them are close to sure things of course. Any of the three could be huge busts. My major issue with drafting Anderson at 3 is we should have been going upside with the #3 pick, and Anderson seems like more #2 starter upside, the chance of an Ace seems pretty small. At least with Lewis if he does make solid contact as he moves up to the MLB level you know he has a great chance to be a stud.

Either way, time will tell if we made the right call on Anderson as always.
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I don't think that saying Anderson has #2 upside means he doesn't have the upside that some others do. If scouts are saying a SP has #2 upside/potential, they're essentially saying he's got a really high ceiling. They don't throw that on a ton of guys, and virtually no one gets the 'ace upside' tag.

Lewis' upside is probably pretty similar to Anderson's in terms of value. I would argue that Lewis' upside is about .270 with 35 HR in the majors offensively while playing pretty good defense. That's certainly a really valuable player, but so is a legit #2 starter. And I think the Braves determined that they think Anderson has a better chance of hitting that upside than Lewis does of hitting his.
 
Has there ever been a pitcher taken with a pick in the top 5 who did not have the upside of a #2 starter?
 
smootness said:
I think part of the problem with Wentz is that twice now he's had his arm go sort of dead for a period of time. That's at least somewhat worrisome. This year will be big for him, to see if he can sustain his stuff through an entire year.
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True, but Anderson has had oblique troubles and his delivery isn't the easiest on his rib cage so there's concern there too. Maybe not the same level as Wentz's dead arm issues, but still a concern.

Also, the dead arm issues were part of Wentz's pre-draft rank. They're not new. If he didn't have the dead arm issues and had consistently thrown like he did after coming back, he'd probably have been rated inside the top 10.
 
striker42 said:
True, but Anderson has had oblique troubles and his delivery isn't the easiest on his rib cage so there's concern there too. Maybe not the same level as Wentz's dead arm issues, but still a concern.

Also, the dead arm issues were part of Wentz's pre-draft rank. They're not new. If he didn't have the dead arm issues and had consistently thrown like he did after coming back, he'd probably have been rated inside the top 10.
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The dead arm issues aren't new, but the fact that they happened again is a new development since the draft and elevates the risk level. He has now struggled with dead arm about as often as he hasn't over the past year or two.
 
smootness said:
The dead arm issues aren't new, but the fact that they happened again is a new development since the draft and elevates the risk level. He has now struggled with dead arm about as often as he hasn't over the past year or two.
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When did they happen since the draft? Not being accusatory or anything, I just don't remember seeing that and am wondering what I missed.
 
striker42 said:
When did they happen since the draft? Not being accusatory or anything, I just don't remember seeing that and am wondering what I missed.
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I don't remember which it was, but there was a prospect ranking that talked about it. They may have just been alluding to the fact that his velocity ticked down again late in his HS season and not actually full dead arm, but I've seen it discussed.
 
smootness said:
I don't remember which it was, but there was a prospect ranking that talked about it. They may have just been alluding to the fact that his velocity ticked down again late in his HS season and not actually full dead arm, but I've seen it discussed.
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Longenhagen discussed the dead arm in a chat last month. He mentioned it as a concern because it happened two years in a row but there was nothing about a post-draft dead arm.

Also, Wentz went 5 innings for Danville on Aug 29, just a few games before the end of the season. If there was any arm issue I would expect the Braves to have shut him down earlier. While having a dead arm twice in high school is concerning, I don't think it has cropped up since the draft. So there's a good argument to be made that Wentz shouldn't be rated significantly below Anderson considering their pre-draft rankings. Wentz just gets punished for getting drafted later even though the fact he fell was a money issue.
 
striker42 said:
Longenhagen discussed the dead arm in a chat last month. He mentioned it as a concern because it happened two years in a row but there was nothing about a post-draft dead arm.

Also, Wentz went 5 innings for Danville on Aug 29, just a few games before the end of the season. If there was any arm issue I would expect the Braves to have shut him down earlier. While having a dead arm twice in high school is concerning, I don't think it has cropped up since the draft. So there's a good argument to be made that Wentz shouldn't be rated significantly below Anderson considering their pre-draft rankings. Wentz just gets punished for getting drafted later even though the fact he fell was a money issue.
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I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but I think the 'dead-arm' and questions about that are what caused Wentz to fall, not his signability. So until those concerns are put to rest, i.e. he pitches a full season I don't think ranking him lower is unjustified.

Love the potential, this is going to be a fun year to watch Anderson/Wentz/Muller/Wilson.
 
Preacher said:
I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but I think the 'dead-arm' and questions about that are what caused Wentz to fall, not his signability. So until those concerns are put to rest, i.e. he pitches a full season I don't think ranking him lower is unjustified.

Love the potential, this is going to be a fun year to watch Anderson/Wentz/Muller/Wilson.
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It's possible the dead arm made him fall but even with the dead arm he was ranked as a middle of the first round kind of pitcher. However, he was labeled as one of the toughest signs in the entire draft class as it was well known he was going to demand an overslot bonus. That took a ton of teams out of the race for him. By the middle of the first round, a lot of teams would have had to cripple their draft to sign Wentz.

I think if he hadn't dealt with the dead arm twice you're probably looking at a top 10 pick. With the dead arm he was rated as a mid first rounder. With the signability issues he fell to us.
 
CJ9 said:
How do you know that?

People have different opinions. Some will be right, some will be wrong. Saying it wasn't a mistake is just a guess at this point, just like the people saying it was a mistake.
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Mistake in rico's context meant that the Braves drafted with a purpose, not that Anderson is massively better than Lewis.
 
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