I guess the point is that Anderson's being ranked a bit conservatively because he's from upstate NY too - certainly no games early in the spring there. Not that that's a bad thing from our point of view since he's likely taxed his arm a little less than some of the Pitchers on that list who hail from warmer climates. Probably not a major factor, but worth mentioning.
Fangraphs Top 100 Prospects
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I guess the point is that Anderson's being ranked a bit conservatively because he's from upstate NY too - certainly no games early in the spring there. Not that that's a bad thing from our point of view since he's likely taxed his arm a little less than some of the Pitchers on that list who hail from warmer climates. Probably not a major factor, but worth mentioning.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Well, it could cost you about 18 million a year -- which some still say was a brilliant deal. I tend to think it wasn't.
The Kemp deal was a case where they made a bad deal in an attempt to cover up another bad deal. They should have just cut their losses, dumped Olivera, and then signed one of the many bat-only FA OFers that were on the market this offseason for much less than they owe Kemp.
Someone like Mark Trumbo would have been a good target. Bautista ended up signing for $18M total. Fowler and Ces would have been much better options in LF. Matt Joyce will likely out-produce Kemp this season, and was signed for a fraction of the price. Matt Holliday could have been another option.
But hey, Coppy's a genius, so it will all work out.
Also true. I forget what it ended up being but the true cost of Kemp was something in the 10 million per year figure when factoring in HO's dead money. One dimensional sluggers were getting a lot less this offseason. Copy is gambling that Kemp's 2nd half offense will carry over and be a 1-2 WAR player. In that range it's not a bad deal but that's the optimistic scenario and not the realistic one.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
I want as high on Lewis
Anderson pick I liked. I just wasn't as excited about the over slot guys.
I still think the tragedy of last year is not getting senzel bc we win a coup,e extra bs games and fell to 3.
Anderson pick I liked. I just wasn't as excited about the over slot guys.
I still think the tragedy of last year is not getting senzel bc we win a coup,e extra bs games and fell to 3.
And we'll be saying the same thing about this year's draft when we pick fifth. One extra loss last season and we would be picking second and have $2+ million extra in our draft pool to spend.
We could have easily gotten both Wentz and Muller along with Lewis instead of Anderson. Max it possibly would have taken to sign Lewis would have been 5.2 mil or so, since that was slot value of the 4th pick. Anderson signed for 4 mil, so Anderson only would have saved us 1.2 mil at the top end, and it's probably likely Lewis would have been willing to sign for 4.5 mil to 5 mil if not less, since the Rockies had expressed zero interest in him and were known to likely be taking Pint. Even if he signed for 5.2 mil or so, we simply would have only needed to sign seniors instead of Harrington and Walker to make up that 1.2 mil.
So basically it would have been Walker, Harrington, and Anderson versus Lewis, which is a far different ball game than losing Wentz or Muller.
We get it, you think Coppy's a moron and your goal in every thread is to try to prove why.
They clearly didn't want Lewis. That is obvious. They preferred Anderson over Lewis, and it didn't have anything to do with the money.
As I've said before, we'll just have to see if they were right. I personally would have taken Lewis, but there are plenty of people who think he won't ever make enough contact to be an impact bat at the MLB level.
striker42
Well-known member
I personally would have taken Lewis as well but I can understand if our scouts saw something they didn't like. It'll suck if he ends up being Jermaine Dye II which is what I think he'll be but I'm willing to accept there being red flags there. But apart from Lewis, I just don't like the Anderson pick. There are 5 or 6 ways I'd rather have seen the Braves go.
There's always a degree of projection involved with prospects. You just have to ask yourself if the projection is reasonable. Take Newcomb for instance. His stuff is excellent. The only thing standing between him and the majors is control. If he can drop his BB rate by one batter every 9 then he should be a very valuable piece. It's entirely reasonable to project Newcomb fine tuning his control that much. If Newcomb were to drop his BB rate to under 2 batters every 9 then he'd be one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. However, that's an improvement that's hard to project. That's an unreasonably large improvement.
With Anderson, in order for him to be a front line starter, as his fans say his ceiling is and what you want in a 3rd overall pick, he's going to need a hard to project jump. Right now you can probably project his fastball gaining some consistency and eventually sitting at 93 with decent life, you can project him tightening up his breaking ball and it going from a slurve to a true slider, and you can project his changeup becoming an average to above average MLB pitch. You put all that together and you've got a Trevor Bauer on your hands. A middle of the rotation starter that you really wish was more than that.
The problem is that Anderson needs a projection you just can't make to become a front line starter. With his lack of a dominant secondary offering, his fastball would need a significant jump. If he's going to be an ace that hangs his hat on his fastball then he'll probably need it to jump to sitting around 96 at least. Right now that's close to the top end of his range when he muscles up on one. It's hard to project his fastball to sit that high. Alternatively, he'll need to elevate one of his secondary pitches to being a plus, plus pitch. Neither one projects that high and it would be a stretch to do so.
Anderson's skill set is such that if something jumps to really exceptional, he doesn't have anything holding him back but there's nothing he does that projects to be exceptional. He'll require an impossible to predict improvement. That's why I'm not a fan of the pick.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
I know, and can you imagine if we'd signed any of those guys he mentioned? He'd have hammered Coppy for signing them. Fowler and Cespedes are on the wrong side of 30 and required 4-5 year deals, you'd be paying Cespedes $28m/yr for his age 34 year, Trumbo is a power-only guy who averages .5 WAR per year for the last three years, Joyce hit .240 in the wrong side of a platoon role last year, Bautista is 36 and went into extreme decline last year with 1 WAR, Holliday is a shell of himself, late 30s and less than a 1 WAR player, and on and on.
Other thing is, free agency isn't like a fantasy league. They've got to agree to come here. Presumably we'd need to win some of those bidding wars, and the thing about bidding wars is, the winner rarely ends up with surplus value - by definition, the process strips it out and you pay full retail. But Enscheff knows all that, so the only explanation is that he's now focused on Coppy as the target of his affection.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
If you're still interested in Kyle Lewis, all is not lost. The Seattle GM tries on players like Lady Gaga tries on clothes. You could probably offer him one of the Rome guys and he'd bite. Hell, you could probably offer him Alex Jackson and he'd bite.
BTW, I saw Kyle in his first week out in Tri-Cities. He hit both gaps, one for a triple. The better übercomparison is a young Griffey (before he started jerking everything). He was lean and fast. I remember Dye being...well, big.
Trumbo is not a .5 WAR player. He had a horrible half year in 2015 that's bringing that 3 year average way down. He's projected to be 1+ WAR guy. You know who is projected to be a .5 WAR guy? Neck and Kemp....combined. Now I don't think either of those will be that bad but there were better options than Kemp if you wanted that type of player. For the Kemp deal to be good you have to think his 2nd half offensive performance is going to carry over. 3 of his last 4 years have been meh granted 2013 was a half season.
I doubt most fans would even care or know what that means. There are 162 games in a season. This isn't like tanking in the NFL where you just have 12 games. When you are losing 90 games 1 more isn't going to cause fans to mass exodus.
Trumbo signed for 12.3 and we have Kemp for 10. I'd rather have Kemp as his upside far exceeds trumbo.
Still dont understand the shade thrown towards kemp.
How do you puposefully lose a game?
What is his upside compared to realistic expectations? Kemp is going to be 32 this year. There comes a time when upside is no longer a thing for a player.
Give key players more days off as the season ends. Not managing game 155 as it's the 7th game of the World Series.