Fangraphs Top 32 Braves Prospects

[CJ9]

I am hoping for a good spring and improved AAA presence. June call up to start taking some reps at 3rd. I like him like I do D-pete. He could become a good player that is dependable and can allow you to focus on other areas for the time being.

If we could have one of Ruiz and Dustin Peterson turn into an everyday starter, I think we're in pretty good shape going forward.

 

[Pachoo]

Is any system even close to the Braves according to fangraphs?

They've reviewed a little over half the majors so far, including some top ones like the White Sox and Dodgers, and based on the lists, the Braves clearly have the best system. What I like about the way Fangraphs does their lists is that they don't arbitrarily just make a top 10 or 20 list for all systems. Instead, they list all prospects in a system with a 40 FV grade or better which helps illustrate how strong and deep some systems are compared to others.

The Braves have 32 prospects in their review when many other teams have less than 20. If you sum up the surplus value of all prospects in their lists for differences from a 35 grade, the Braves surplus value is 360 (355 if you take out Mauricio who isn't a prospect anymore officially).

Of the teams that they have reviewed so far, the next highest total is 315 from the loaded and deep Padres system (much from their incredible international haul this year. They also have 32 prospects on their list, a system just as deep as the Braves but lacking a bit on top potential talent in comparison). There is a big drop off from there. 3rd highest is White Sox at 260. Dodgers and Rockies are at 240 (actually, Dodgers are at 220 now because they traded away 55 FV Jose De Leon).

I think of the ones left to review, the only one that might be close is the Yankees system (and possibly the Astros). I think the Yankees surplus value will be less than the Padres, though,..maybe 300 or so. I think the Astros will end up behind the White Sox, closer to the Rockies around 240. I think White Sox will end up as the 4th highest total overall, at 260.

Btw, the worst system reviewed so far are the diamondbacks with only 14 prospects on their list with a surplus value (surplus over a 35 grade) of 95, laughably low. A few other systems have surplus values less than 140.

I did these calculations in my head so the numbers could be off a bit. Still, I think this shows that even when Swanson gets taken off the prospect lists a few days into the season, the Braves should still have the best system in the game. It is absurdly deep with very high potential at the lower levels. And most other systems will also graduate top prospects this year anyways. White Sox will probably graduate Giolito, and Moncado and Reynaldo Lopez also have a good chance to get over the rookie limit. For the Yankees, Clint Frazier and Aaron Judge will probably graduate this year. For the Padres, Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe will break their rookie limits this year (padres #2 and #3 prospects).

And keep in mind, we have the 5th overall pick while White Sox pick 11th and Yankees pick 16th. Padres select 3rd though. I am hoping Coppy can somehow trade for one of the competitive balance picks, probably either 34. Brewers, 35. Twins or 36. Marlins.

After this years graduations and the draft, I personally think the Braves and Padres systems will be ranked in the top 3 systems at this time next year. Padres system is underrated by many outlets right now IMO. Baseball America has their system at 9 which is way too low imo (their top five are 1.Braves 2. Dodgers 3. Yankees 4. Astros 5. White Sox). Keith Law, though, has the Padres as his number 3 system (1. Braves 2. Yankees 3. Padres 4. Pirates 5. Dodgers).

I think Coppy has done a great job just two years into his tenure. Sure, I didn't like several of his trades including the Olivera, Kimbrel/Upton, and Simmons trades but he has also had some great trades and moves and has drafted well in the two he oversaw. I love his trades of lower ceiling guys for riskier but potentially high payoff prospects (Gohara for Mallex, Alex Jackson who is smartly being moved to catcher - a position he WANTS to play, getting Touki for money, etc.). We could do way worse than having our rebuild being overseen by Coppy and Hart.

I think Coppy is being given an unfair grade by some people on this forum, personally.

 

[Pachoo]

One correction. The Marlins actually are tied with the Diamondbacks in the Fangraph ratings so far with a total surplus over 35 FV grade of 95. Their system has even less 40+FV prospects than the Diamondbacks, only 13.

The Angels might give those two a run for worst system when their review comes out.

Also, Baseball America has updated farm rankings (the ones I cited are from their prospects handbook which was published a month ago) and the Dodgers have moved down from 2nd system to 4th because of the Jose De Leon trade. Their top 5 now is:

1. Braves
2. Yankees
3. Astros
4. Dodgers
5. White Sox