Freshmaker
Arbitration Eligible
Really good explanation of the moves made to this point, with great analysis of the tax implications.
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Fangraphs: What, exactly, are the Braves up to?
- Thread starter Freshmaker
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cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Good article. I like what the Braves have done this off season. I know people are mad they didn't get a big name third starter with a proven track record and younger than 40 but I like many of the options we have. We won the world series with a rotation of Fried/Anderson/Morton. I think Morton is still good. As long as he is striking out 10+ per 9 he is a quality starter in my book. I still like Ian Anderson. TJ surgery is fairly routine and I like getting him back mid season because a full year would be a bit much to expect right away. I always like Ynoa more than most and we get him back too. I really like AJSS and Waldrep is everything Kyle Wright wasn't and has shown me he has real potential. We could very well trade the farm for Cease and be goes down with TJ. Pitching is notoriously unreliable so I like having a lot of options rather than all eggs in one basket.
Plus it sets us up well in the years going forward. I think the chances of resigning Fried went way up and I won't even discount that we go after Soto since we got his BFF to help recruit him. With this off season we could realistically get both Fried and Soto signed next year and still be under the luxury tax.
We are getting to the point where we can see the end of Acuna/Albie's contracts. We need to keep in mind any contracts past 4 years is going to effect our ability to sign them to extensions. We have a **** ton of money spent on the pen in the next 2 years. If we could develop some cheap low service time relieves it would make a world of difference on our ability to sign premium players. I think AA has this in mind with many of the moves this off season. I wouldn't be surprised if we target someone we think can be a top notch reliever quickly with our first round pick this year. Paying 50 million a year on the pen is only sustainable because of the super team friendly contracts we have.
Plus it sets us up well in the years going forward. I think the chances of resigning Fried went way up and I won't even discount that we go after Soto since we got his BFF to help recruit him. With this off season we could realistically get both Fried and Soto signed next year and still be under the luxury tax.
We are getting to the point where we can see the end of Acuna/Albie's contracts. We need to keep in mind any contracts past 4 years is going to effect our ability to sign them to extensions. We have a **** ton of money spent on the pen in the next 2 years. If we could develop some cheap low service time relieves it would make a world of difference on our ability to sign premium players. I think AA has this in mind with many of the moves this off season. I wouldn't be surprised if we target someone we think can be a top notch reliever quickly with our first round pick this year. Paying 50 million a year on the pen is only sustainable because of the super team friendly contracts we have.
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The Braves gather a bunch of BP options and Jared Kelenic. They still have yet to address the bigger issue the rotation. IMO Elder and Smith-Shawver/Lopez definitely isn't a great plan going into the season. Still plenty of time left before the season starts but in my personal opinion none of the holes have truly been addressed.
Most projections don't see the SP as an issue for 2024. But LF is hopefully solved for the forseeable future and the pen as well which will be losing Minter after 2024.
Fried and Morton stay injured, Morton is also coming down to his last few season and coming off an injury. Elder declined towards the end of the year and AJSS is a wildcard. Personally I think the Braves need 2 starters.
The Braves don't really need another starter for the 2024 season. The Playoffs? Maybe but it's possible that one of our prospects or comeback players breaks through and if not there will be arms available at the deadline.
That's a pessimistic view.
If the Braves can get a good mid level starter, ie. Stromam or equivalent, the offseason will be a success. Somebody solid who is a good bet to eat up solid innings is exactly what they need to finish out the team. No team can expect to lose a TOR pitcher and have another waiting. Good pitching is just to rare.
How? Where's the lie?
There are only 3 FA arms who can realistically be relied upon to be better/healthier than Morton next October, and those guys are Snell, Monty and Stroman. Of those 3 options I think it’s clear which is the most likely guy to take a 2-3 year contract AA is likely to give out.
The trade candidates are really only Cease and Burnes, and we’ve heard some decent smoke on Cease.
So my prediction is AA adds Cease with giving up only Grissom, or Stroman on a 2 year deal for a slightly elevated AAV.
The trade candidates are really only Cease and Burnes, and we’ve heard some decent smoke on Cease.
So my prediction is AA adds Cease with giving up only Grissom, or Stroman on a 2 year deal for a slightly elevated AAV.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Unless he can bag Stroman on a 2- of 3-year deal, I think Anthopoulos is going to wait until the deadline.
Southcack77
Well-known member
It's pretty rare for Anthopolous to up his bid or panic when options get limited. He tends to stand firm on it. Someone else probably brings in the high bid on the remaining folks.
I would lean towards the Braves not bringing anyone else in that folks here would see as an obvious upgrade.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
The problem is you want big name players who are nice and shiny. I want players who will be good not ones who have been good. Good teams acquire players before they produce and bad teams like the Yankees throw money and prospects around like drunken sailors and then wonder why they suck despite a huge payroll.
No I want a proven starting pitcher that's durable. The Braves already have a rotation full of great pitchers when healthy but can't stay healthy and the backend is questionable. If you feel comfortable rolling into the season with Elder and AJSS as your 4/5 guys in the rotation that's you. He even Morton is a wildcard at this point.
Elder is fine as a 4/5 and the current plan is for Lopez as the other. Yes that is more than acceptable to start the season at the back end. Braves are so loaded they can auto pilot until the Allstars break.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Durability is proven until it’s not. I don’t think investing large sums in pitcher health is smart—you invest in quality and hope they pitch enough to make it worthwhile.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
A pitcher that can give you 200+ IP.
Did I say invest a large sum of money in a pitcher? There are many ways to get a proven durable pitcher without pay tons of money and honestly it's not my payroll to manage. All I know is pitching down the stretch is what wins championships.