Farewell to Wood, Peraza, Jimmy Johns, and Avilans.

Some people don't understand how WAR works. If Perza plays 2B over the course of 6 years and is a non albatross on defense, 12 WAR is a conservative number (and I'm not a huge fan of Peraza).

Jace is almost on pace for a 2 WAR with average defense and an 88 RC+. (line of .248/.324/.351)
 
Not enough consideration has been given to Peraza's age (21) and the fact that he is doing well in AAA at that age. There are no guarantees for him or anyone else. But chances are he is going to be a major league regular for a good chunk of his career. And there is some upside beyond that, especially if he develops some power. But the upside could also manifest itself in his becoming an outstanding defender at whatever turns out to be his ultimate position. You look at a guy like Billy Hamilton, who has been a complete bust with the bat, but still grades as fairly valuable due to his defense and base running.
 
Unless scouts are wrong and Peraza has an elite hit tool, he's just not going to get enough playing time on a good club to rack up 2 WAR a year.
 
keithlaw said:
Unless scouts are wrong and Peraza has an elite hit tool, he's just not going to get enough playing time on a good club to rack up 2 WAR a year.
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In a world where guys like Johny Giovatella, Chris Owning, Didi Gregorius, Nick Ahmed and our own Jace Peterson and Cameron Maybin are on track to rack up 500 plus plate appearances, I think there could be a team out there willing to give Peraza the playing time.
 
nsacpi said:
In a world where guys like Johny Giovatella, Chris Owning, Didi Gregorius, Nick Ahmed and our own Jace Peterson and Cameron Maybin are on track to rack up 500 plus plate appearances, I think there could be a team out there willing to give Peraza the playing time.
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We're talking about 6 years.
Not single seasons. 6 years.
He was just OK in 96 games this year (and great for 10). And yes, very young.
It's hardly a guarantee he puts up 2 WAR per year for 6 years.
 
yeezus said:
We're talking about 6 years.
Not single seasons. 6 years.
He was just OK in 96 games this year (and great for 10). And yes, very young.
It's hardly a guarantee he puts up 2 WAR per year for 6 years.
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I'd be willing to bet he accumulates 12 WAR in his first 6 seasons
 
yeezus said:
We're talking about 6 years.
Not single seasons. 6 years.
He was just OK in 96 games this year (and great for 10). And yes, very young.
It's hardly a guarantee he puts up 2 WAR per year for 6 years.
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I agree with the no guarantee part. That's true of every player. I would keep Peraza for another half season in AAA. But after that I think he's got a decent chance (a little less than 50%) of being a 2 WAR/year player in his pre-free agency years.

Ben Revere is a decent recent comp and he is at 8.5 WAR after about 4 and a half seasons in the majors.
 
yeezus said:
he very well could.
but it's not an easy thing to do, and I wouldn't call it conservative. JMO.
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If that is the case, then I'd need to back off my estimates for Olivera as well.

Point being - we gave up a LOT of expected future value, and I think any way you slice it we did not get equal return
 
yeezus said:
he very well could.
but it's not an easy thing to do, and I wouldn't call it conservative. JMO.
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I would call it slightly optimistic. But not crazy. With young players like Peraza, Mallex Smith and Bethancourt there is also some upside that is an added consideration. Downside too of course. But relative to older players, the distribution of outcomes has a fatter tail in the upside direction for young players.
 
nsacpi said:
I would call it slightly optimistic. But not crazy. With young players like Peraza, Mallex Smith and Bethancourt there is also some upside that is an added consideration. Downside too of course. But relative to older players, the distribution of outcomes has a fatter tail in the upside direction for young players.
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It's all a matter of if he's a starter or they transition him into the majors as a super sub. If he has 5 full years starter, he'll surpass 12 WAR and not need to be a great player to do so.
 
I didn't have a problem with the Peraza forecast. But ultimately Braves traded from surplus positions to fill a position of need.
 
thethe said:
I didn't have a problem with the Peraza forecast. But ultimately Braves traded from surplus positions to fill a position of need.
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Including Peraza in that sense makes some sense. If you traded Wood because you think SP is a surplus position, you are drunk
 
gilesfan said:
Including Peraza in that sense makes some sense. If you traded Wood because you think SP is a surplus position, you are drunk
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Surplus in what's in the farm system as well as what they will acquiesce in free agency. You just aren't going to acquire a good 3B easily.

I have the utmost confidence in the fact the Braves will continue to develop pitching internally
 
thethe said:
Surplus in what's in the farm system as well as what they will acquiesce in free agency. You just aren't going to acquire a good 3B easily.

I have the utmost confidence in the fact the Braves will continue to develop pitching internally
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But, have to trade them by 24 because they may get injured.
 
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