Farewell to Wood, Peraza, Jimmy Johns, and Avilans.

gilesfan said:
Most of the complaints are not the talent level of Olivera. It's that he's 30 years old with zero track record in the United States and has been nothing but injured for 2-3 years. He would be fine if you didn't give up a top 50 prospect and a top of the rotation type 24 year old starter.

Would anyone trade that package for Justin Turner? I sure as heck wouldn't and Turner is the same age, has a track record, and hasn't been injured the last couple years. Justin Turners production (overall; not 2015) is essentially what people are projecting for Olivera.
Click to expand...

Justin Turner is a lazy comparison. When was the last time he's had over 300 AB's in a season? I'll give you the answer, 2011. Sure, he's exceeded any expectations anyone has had for him, but he's done so in minimal AB's
 
thethe said:
Braves are in a new position financially. I'm not anticipating any hometown discounts. Braves can pay Grienke 25 per year and still have a load of cash to play with.
Click to expand...

A lot of people on here as well as people on twitter don't seem to realize just how much money this team has to work with.
 
steveAKAslick said:
He's basing the value of the trade based on "IF AND WHEN" Alex Wood has his second Tommy John...the Braves basically devalued their own player and then threw Peraza into the deal to make up for the signing bonus that the Dodgers have already paid Olivera...so by thethe logic the Braves traded Wood before he gets his second TJ, BUT trade for a guy with injury history whose elbow may be hanging on by a ligament
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And it's a very real possibility that Wood gets hurt. He has been more htable this year. What if that trend continues like it did with Hanson/JJ/Beachy?
 
NYCBrave said:
Justin Turner is a lazy comparison. When was the last time he's had over 300 AB's in a season? I'll give you the answer, 2011. Sure, he's exceeded any expectations anyone has had for him, but he's done so in minimal AB's
Click to expand...

When is the last time Hector Olivera has had 300 at bats?
 
NYCBrave said:
I'm not defending Olivera, just pointing out your comparison is weak because you can't assume Justin Turner will sustain these stats over a full season
Click to expand...

And you can't assume Olivera will either.

Turner is a career .289/.352/.426 with averageish defense which is pretty close to the comparison people are making on Olivera. He's the same age. The Dodgers obviously feel he's a better player in 2015 for them than Olivera. I haven't heard anyone suggest they would trade our package for Justin Turner.

Edit: I guess Dave Cameron agrees

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-dodgers-already-have-hector-olivera/

However, when reading scouting reports about Olivera’s expected performance, I can’t shake the idea that the Dodgers already have this player; he just goes by the name of Justin Turner.

For context, here’s Kiley’s report on Olivera from a month ago:

The Scouting Report

Hit: 45/55, Game Power: 45/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 55/55, Field: 50/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50

There’s undeniable talent here: Olivera has above average bat speed, bat control, plate discipline and raw power, which is to all fields and he has a history of getting to in games. He’s an above average runner that can play second base or third base and has an above average arm. That’s an above average everyday player with the statistical track record to give you some confidence that he’ll perform in the big leagues, but there’s real risk of him staying on the field regularly and not having his tools regress in a few years.

What all of this the means is that the optimistic outcome is, in 2015 in the big leagues, that Olivera could hit .260-.280 with a good OBP, 15-20 homers and solid-average base running and defensive value. He may well be better in 2015 than Yasmany Tomas and Rusney Castillo, but given his age and track record, that isn’t going out on much of a limb; the concern is if he’s better than them in the following years and the risk associated with that. It’s possible Olivera will need a couple week in the minors to get up to speed, but he’s seen as a plug-and-play MLB option.

Now, just for fun, here’s Justin Turner’s career batting line.

Season

PA

BB%

K%

ISO

BABIP

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

wRC+

Career 1,248 7% 15% 0.114 0.322 0.281 0.344 0.395 0.328 110

Turner’s game might skew a bit more towards the BA/OBP end of the spectrum at the expense of some SLG, but overall, this is a pretty similar line to what Kiley was projecting for Olivera. Turner is a high-contact guy who doesn’t chase bad pitches and hits the ball hard enough to do some damage, and showed some improvement in the power department last year, posting a .153 ISO while nearly doubling his career home run total. His career 110 wRC+ with average baserunning would be a pretty nice outcome for Olivera as a hitter, and while Turner is not a great defender, he’s at least shown he can play third base at a reasonable level and hasn’t completely embarrassed himself up the middle; Olivera might have more defensive tools, but also comes with a lot of physical risks that Turner doesn’t have.
 
gilesfan said:
And you can't assume Olivera will either.

Turner is a career .289/.352/.426 with averageish defense which is pretty close to the comparison people are making on Olivera. He's the same age. The Dodgers obviously feel he's a better player in 2015 for them than Olivera. I haven't heard anyone suggest they would trade our package for Justin Turner.

Edit: I guess Dave Cameron agrees

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-dodgers-already-have-hector-olivera/

However, when reading scouting reports about Olivera’s expected performance, I can’t shake the idea that the Dodgers already have this player; he just goes by the name of Justin Turner.

For context, here’s Kiley’s report on Olivera from a month ago:

The Scouting Report

Hit: 45/55, Game Power: 45/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 55/55, Field: 50/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50

There’s undeniable talent here: Olivera has above average bat speed, bat control, plate discipline and raw power, which is to all fields and he has a history of getting to in games. He’s an above average runner that can play second base or third base and has an above average arm. That’s an above average everyday player with the statistical track record to give you some confidence that he’ll perform in the big leagues, but there’s real risk of him staying on the field regularly and not having his tools regress in a few years.

What all of this the means is that the optimistic outcome is, in 2015 in the big leagues, that Olivera could hit .260-.280 with a good OBP, 15-20 homers and solid-average base running and defensive value. He may well be better in 2015 than Yasmany Tomas and Rusney Castillo, but given his age and track record, that isn’t going out on much of a limb; the concern is if he’s better than them in the following years and the risk associated with that. It’s possible Olivera will need a couple week in the minors to get up to speed, but he’s seen as a plug-and-play MLB option.

Now, just for fun, here’s Justin Turner’s career batting line.

Season

PA

BB%

K%

ISO

BABIP

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

wRC+

Career 1,248 7% 15% 0.114 0.322 0.281 0.344 0.395 0.328 110

Turner’s game might skew a bit more towards the BA/OBP end of the spectrum at the expense of some SLG, but overall, this is a pretty similar line to what Kiley was projecting for Olivera. Turner is a high-contact guy who doesn’t chase bad pitches and hits the ball hard enough to do some damage, and showed some improvement in the power department last year, posting a .153 ISO while nearly doubling his career home run total. His career 110 wRC+ with average baserunning would be a pretty nice outcome for Olivera as a hitter, and while Turner is not a great defender, he’s at least shown he can play third base at a reasonable level and hasn’t completely embarrassed himself up the middle; Olivera might have more defensive tools, but also comes with a lot of physical risks that Turner doesn’t have.
Click to expand...

That's pretty frightening. Can't believe how much we gave up
 
With Adonis Garcia and hopefully the expected appearance of Dian Toscano, the Braves are really stacking up the Cuban players with the acquisition of Olivera. Just wondering with the whole American/Cuban rapprochement if the Braves are going to become more aggressive on that front. The bonus rules really screw things up (I think the bonus the Dodgers ladled out is what landed Olivera), but we may become the franchise where Jon Favreau sets up his food truck.
 
gilesfan said:
And you can't assume Olivera will either.

Turner is a career .289/.352/.426 with averageish defense which is pretty close to the comparison people are making on Olivera. He's the same age. The Dodgers obviously feel he's a better player in 2015 for them than Olivera. I haven't heard anyone suggest they would trade our package for Justin Turner.

Edit: I guess Dave Cameron agrees

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-dodgers-already-have-hector-olivera/

However, when reading scouting reports about Olivera’s expected performance, I can’t shake the idea that the Dodgers already have this player; he just goes by the name of Justin Turner.

For context, here’s Kiley’s report on Olivera from a month ago:

The Scouting Report

Hit: 45/55, Game Power: 45/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 55/55, Field: 50/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50

There’s undeniable talent here: Olivera has above average bat speed, bat control, plate discipline and raw power, which is to all fields and he has a history of getting to in games. He’s an above average runner that can play second base or third base and has an above average arm. That’s an above average everyday player with the statistical track record to give you some confidence that he’ll perform in the big leagues, but there’s real risk of him staying on the field regularly and not having his tools regress in a few years.

What all of this the means is that the optimistic outcome is, in 2015 in the big leagues, that Olivera could hit .260-.280 with a good OBP, 15-20 homers and solid-average base running and defensive value. He may well be better in 2015 than Yasmany Tomas and Rusney Castillo, but given his age and track record, that isn’t going out on much of a limb; the concern is if he’s better than them in the following years and the risk associated with that. It’s possible Olivera will need a couple week in the minors to get up to speed, but he’s seen as a plug-and-play MLB option.

Now, just for fun, here’s Justin Turner’s career batting line.

Season

PA

BB%

K%

ISO

BABIP

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

wRC+

Career 1,248 7% 15% 0.114 0.322 0.281 0.344 0.395 0.328 110

Turner’s game might skew a bit more towards the BA/OBP end of the spectrum at the expense of some SLG, but overall, this is a pretty similar line to what Kiley was projecting for Olivera. Turner is a high-contact guy who doesn’t chase bad pitches and hits the ball hard enough to do some damage, and showed some improvement in the power department last year, posting a .153 ISO while nearly doubling his career home run total. His career 110 wRC+ with average baserunning would be a pretty nice outcome for Olivera as a hitter, and while Turner is not a great defender, he’s at least shown he can play third base at a reasonable level and hasn’t completely embarrassed himself up the middle; Olivera might have more defensive tools, but also comes with a lot of physical risks that Turner doesn’t have.
Click to expand...

We get it. We are gambling on upside. How much isn't really known one way or the other.
 
gilesfan said:
If you are tired of reading discussion on the topic, go to another topic.:FrediConfident:
Click to expand...

I mean, its been said. Over and over.

The Braves obviously feel he could be better than than Turner. I don't think its unreasonable to assume they do anyway. I think he could be as well.
 
gilesfan said:
And you can't assume Olivera will either.

Turner is a career .289/.352/.426 with averageish defense which is pretty close to the comparison people are making on Olivera. He's the same age. The Dodgers obviously feel he's a better player in 2015 for them than Olivera. I haven't heard anyone suggest they would trade our package for Justin Turner.

Edit: I guess Dave Cameron agrees

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-dodgers-already-have-hector-olivera/

However, when reading scouting reports about Olivera’s expected performance, I can’t shake the idea that the Dodgers already have this player; he just goes by the name of Justin Turner.

For context, here’s Kiley’s report on Olivera from a month ago:

The Scouting Report

Hit: 45/55, Game Power: 45/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 55/55, Field: 50/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50

There’s undeniable talent here: Olivera has above average bat speed, bat control, plate discipline and raw power, which is to all fields and he has a history of getting to in games. He’s an above average runner that can play second base or third base and has an above average arm. That’s an above average everyday player with the statistical track record to give you some confidence that he’ll perform in the big leagues, but there’s real risk of him staying on the field regularly and not having his tools regress in a few years.

What all of this the means is that the optimistic outcome is, in 2015 in the big leagues, that Olivera could hit .260-.280 with a good OBP, 15-20 homers and solid-average base running and defensive value. He may well be better in 2015 than Yasmany Tomas and Rusney Castillo, but given his age and track record, that isn’t going out on much of a limb; the concern is if he’s better than them in the following years and the risk associated with that. It’s possible Olivera will need a couple week in the minors to get up to speed, but he’s seen as a plug-and-play MLB option.

Now, just for fun, here’s Justin Turner’s career batting line.

Season

PA

BB%

K%

ISO

BABIP

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

wRC+

Career 1,248 7% 15% 0.114 0.322 0.281 0.344 0.395 0.328 110

Turner’s game might skew a bit more towards the BA/OBP end of the spectrum at the expense of some SLG, but overall, this is a pretty similar line to what Kiley was projecting for Olivera. Turner is a high-contact guy who doesn’t chase bad pitches and hits the ball hard enough to do some damage, and showed some improvement in the power department last year, posting a .153 ISO while nearly doubling his career home run total. His career 110 wRC+ with average baserunning would be a pretty nice outcome for Olivera as a hitter, and while Turner is not a great defender, he’s at least shown he can play third base at a reasonable level and hasn’t completely embarrassed himself up the middle; Olivera might have more defensive tools, but also comes with a lot of physical risks that Turner doesn’t have.
Click to expand...

So we're just going to ignore the fact that Turner has never started a full season in the major leagues?

*Edit: I don't like the trade, and I'm not trying to defend it. Just think it's a lame comparison.
 
dak said:
My sense based on the Braves' actions is that they will be positioning themselves to contend for a wild card spot in 2016. 2017 or 2018 may be the apex they're shooting for, but they seem intent on making moves to help the 2016 club contend. Also, I think it's near a given that they will sign a veteran SP this offseason. I don't think it will be of the ace variety, but at least a number 3 type. They're sitting on a mountain of cash right now, which is exciting . . . and nerve-wracking.
Click to expand...

Sacrificing future value so we can try to get a wild card spot in 2016 is not something I want us doing.
 
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