I look at this trade in 3 segments:
1. 4 years of PacoRod (who is better than Luis) > 3 years of Avilan - definite Braves win
2. 6 years of Zach Byrd > 2 worthless months of Jim Johnson - definite Braves win
3. So the huge question mark is: 5 years of Olivera at $31.25MM + 2016 comp pick probably in the early 30's + $8.1MM in payroll flexibility by shedding Arroyo's salary versus 4 years of Wood + 6 years of Peraza
It is pretty obvious that we are much better off on the first two parts of this trade. The big question is, which we won't know for several years, is how will Olivera, the comp pick and the money saved end up producing, compared to what Wood and Peraza produce.
At first I was really down on this trade, but after stepping back, I'm not nearly as down on it as I was. Wood took a step back this year. Is this a trend, or just a blip and he continues a really good career? Peraza's shine isn't quite as bright as it once was, still a very good prospect, but his low OBP is a red flag, especially when his main calling card is speed on the base paths.
I worry about Olivera's age, health history and the fact he has never faced major league pitching. We really don't know what we can expect out of him, but he has always mashed minor league pitching, and the Dodgers paying all of his bonus makes his contract much more attractive and allows us that much more flexibility going forward. The 2016 draft is supposed to be very strong. That high 20's low 30's extra pick should bring us a very good prospect. And who knows what we can buy for the money saved in not having to pay Arroyo's salary.
Time will tell about this trade, but I'm much more upbeat about this trade than I was.