Farewell to Wood, Peraza, Jimmy Johns, and Avilans.

Listen, I'm not too thrilled with this deal either, but some need to back off the ledge a bit here. Calling for Hart to be fired is getting a bit ridiculous here. We're going to have to wait and see how things play out. We may not, or even have to agree with everything this organization does. But, I do believe a plan is in place. Again, I wish the Braves got a more highly regarded prospect in this deal, but it doesn't mean it won't work out. I'm not blindly agreeing with everything Hart and company do. However, Hart has been in this business a long time and I do believe he knows what he's doing.

What's done is done and it is what it is. Let's just let things play out and see what develops. We may be quite surprised.
 
Julio3000 said:
Um, if he doesn't get that, it's time to take him behind the barn and put him out of his misery. There are really only a handful of people in the who don't get this, and they're all posting here.
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That's true but as a fan... I mean come on. We're all looking for that validation that the front office gets it.
 
jpx7 said:
It "makes sense" insofar as I think Hart believes the Braves scored an offensive-impact infielder way under where the market would value it—both in terms of his average-annual-salary (thanks to the Dodgers swallowing the signing bonus), if he were a free-agent, and in terms of prospect-status, since he's old as turd-buckets. They also maybe get a young, better Avilan, if healthy, and a lottery-ticket arm.

Oh, but the main player also comes with the "if healthy" caveat, has never hit major-league pitching, has precious few minor-league PAs, and is almost as agèd as Nick Markakis—which is why there's a good argument that this trade ultimately doesn't make sense. The rebuilding Braves got older, not that much cheaper, and essentially took on all the risk (and, please—let's quit assuming Alex Wood is slam-dunk for arm problems just because he's got some motion in his ocean) while paying a premium price for the luxury of assuming that risk.

So, yea: this transaction can "make sense" from certain angles, but that doesn't mean it's made savvy, smart, or sound. "Making sense" is a bare-minimum qualifier that leaves a lot of room to see this as a raw deal for Atlanta, risky at best, retrograde at worst.
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That's a great post. I agree with you.
 
nsacpi said:
I'm not a fan of this trade. I hated losing Peraza. But I think there is maybe a 30-40% chance we win the trade. To me that's not good enough. But it is far from the worst trade I've seen.
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This pretty much sums it up for me as well.
 
ChapelHillMatt said:
You thought Wren knew what he was doing too until he got fired. It's just the way you choose to follow your teams. It makes it hard to take your posts seriously. You support every move the current GM makes, no matter what it is. If we loved Olivera this much we should have signed him. If they wanted a big bat trade for one but do it for someone younger and has proved himself. Olivera won't help us when we are contending again
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LIke I've said many times. I supported Wren until the point that it became clear he pushed out one of the best scouts in the business.
 
nsacpi said:
There are other ways we could win the trade. I like Bird and he has been lost in the shuffle. I'm not a fan of this trade. I hated losing Peraza. But I think there is maybe a 30-40% chance we win the trade. To me that's not good enough. But it is far from the worst trade I've seen.
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Yeah, I would have rather kept Peraza. I think his skills will translate well tot he major leagues.

I'm not too upset about Wood being included for reasons I've already mentioned.
 
Hawk said:
I've just scoured Dodgers forums, MLBTR, and some general baseball boards, and basically you, thethe, Enscheff, and some guy on MLBTR (who might be Enscheff) are the only people roundly defending the deal.
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I'm not exactly defending the deal, I'm mainly trying to stay rational. If the Braves view Olivera as an impact bat along the lines of .280/.350/.450 and 20 HRs while playing an adequate 3B (and by all accounts, that's exactly how they see him), then that type of player signed through his age 30-35 seasons for $30M is extremely valuable. That type of player would command close to $100M if he hit the FA market at age 30. No, he hasn't proven anything like a real MLB FA would have, but that's why he comes at such a discount.

I do think Wood plus Peraza was too much to pay for Olivera, even if he ends up being that 800 ops guy, but they traded from positions of strength (pitching and light hitting middle infield) to address an area of extreme weakness (RHed Impact bats).

And let's not forget that JJ plus Avilan brought back a lottery ticket pitching prospect, a top 30 pick in a loaded draft, a loogy superior to Avilan, as well as salary relief from Arroyo (whose acquisition allowed the Braves to buy Touki). The Braves definitely won the "other" part of this trade.

Folks freaked out about the Heyward trade, and now it's being heralded as great work by Hart. I don't think this was a good trade, but it was far from the disaster the chicken littles around here are making it out to be.
 
sturg33 said:
From Keith Law
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Law lost me at below average athlete and fringy bat speed. I mean this guys clearly is at worst average athletically based on measurements. I posted the video of Olivera's AB's and nobody brought up fringy bat speed. His bat speed is at worst good enough and I would argue it is much better than that. He essentially contradicts himself. He states a "hitter who could poke 20-25 HR's." I mean come on. You have to assume at worst average bat speed for a player to get 20 HR's. I think this type of comment from Law makes me belittle his expertise. Complain about the injury issues, and the age, but I think he's going a bit overboard here.
 
Enscheff said:
I'm not exactly defending the deal, I'm mainly trying to stay rational. If the Braves view Olivera as an impact bat along the lines of .280/.350/.450 and 20 HRs while playing a lb adequate 3B (and by all accounts, that's exactly how they see him), then that type of player signed through his age 30-35 seasons for $30M is extremely valuable. That type of player would command close to $100M if he hit the FA market at age 30. No, he hasn't proven anything like a real MLB FA would have, but that's why he comes at such a discount.

I do think Wood plus Peraza was too much to pay for Olivera, even if he ends up being that 800 ops guy, but they traded from positions of strength (pitching and light hitting middle infield) to address an area of extreme weakness (RHed Impact bats).

And let's not forget that JJ plus Avilan brought back a lottery ticket pitching prospect, a top 30 pick in a loaded draft, a loogy superior to Avilan, as well as salary relief from Arroyo (whose acquisition allowed the Braves to buy Touki). The Braves definitely won the "other" part of this trade.

Folks freaked out about the Heyward trade, and now is being heralded as great work by Hart. I don't think this was a good trade, but it was far from the disaster the chicken littles around here are making it out to be.
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Exactly my thoughts.
 
I'm not sure that I view this as the Braves suddenly realizing the pool of available/attainable offense is smaller than imagined and reacting accordingly. I think the Front Office sincerely believes that the team can sustain on an abundance of serviceable arms and a fairly pedestrian offense.

Anyways, I think we can all agree that Olivera is an intriguing piece. There's nothing elite here though; middling defense, power, and speed with a projectable ceiling. The most tangible assets are cost control, versatility, and being a potential cog in the team's efforts to raise an International talent core.

I could understand this deal much more if I felt the Braves were on the precipice of contention. Olivera would sew things together nicely if the team could earnestly say it can contend in 2016. I just don't see it, even if the team were to add a premium bat and arm through FA. Still lots of questions.
 
That little bat wrap of his might hurt him as the ol' central nervous system starts to slow down, but I'm out of my depth in commenting about such.

Paco is better than Avilan . . . if he's healthy. The pick might pan out. Olivera might end up being a terrific value. I'm essentially with nsacpi in thinking that there's a substantial chance that the trade works out, but not enough to feel great about it. I wish we'd gotten more from Wood/Peraza. We won't know until the guy is on the field.
 
Julio3000 said:
That little bat wrap of his might hurt him as the ol' central nervous system starts to slow down, but I'm out of my depth in commenting about such.

Paco is better than Avilan . . . if he's healthy. The pick might pan out. Olivera might end up being a terrific value. I'm essentially with nsacpi in thinking that there's a substantial chance that the trade works out, but not enough to feel great about it. I wish we'd gotten more from Wood/Peraza. We won't know until the guy is on the field.
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That's exactly my thoughts on this trade. I think it could work out, but I was kind of thinking Peraza and Wood would net us something obviously hugely beneficial. Instead we got a guy who could be quite beneficial if things work out.
 
When you're dealing to a contending team at the deadline, you expect to come out ahead in future assets. Regardless of what anyone in this trade becomes, we did not get good enough value for what we gave up, not currently and certainly not for the future.
 
Law may not like the deal for us, but Shanks interviewed Kiley McDaniel, and he thinks we did pretty well. He thinks Olivera can hit 280 with a 350 OBP and 20-25 HR while playing an average to slightly above average 3B and called the guys we gave up fungible. He also said Bird has a #3 starter upside, but is a huge risk.
 
The Tex trade was the only trade in the last 10 years that I thought was more retarded. I'm not a fan of Peraza but think Wood is a good young lefty who we have under control for 4 more years. Trading away a 24 year old number 2 starter doesn't happen all that much for good reason. Now the rotation looks like junk. Miller, Julio, Wisler, Folty & Baby Harang? Not going anywhere with that rotation no matter how good your offense is.
 
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