FG currently has the Braves projected for 40.2 total fWAR, which is an 88-92 win team depending on what season win total you use for a replacement level team (typically ranges from 48-52). I would feel comfortable calling the current Braves roster a ~90 win true talent team.
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=C
Breaking the roster down by position:
C: 3.2 WAR (#6 in MLB) - As expected this is an effective timeshare with Flowers and d'Arnaud. d'Arnaud has the "room for upside" thing going for him, so while it's easy to take the over on this projection, it's just as easy to foresee him being injured like he usually is and coming in below this projection. Verdict: ACCURATE.
1B: 4.4 WAR (#1 in MLB) - This is all Freeman, and nobody is going to argue with him being among the best 1B in the game. We expect a healthy Freeman to produce ~5 WAR, and the threat of injury is all that drags his projection down a bit. Verdict: ACCURATE.
2B: 4.2 WAR (#2 in MLB) - The Ozzie Albies show is being projected to be better than everyone not named Altuve...who beats him by a negligible 0.1 WAR. As with Freeman, this is what we expect from a healthy Albies. Verdict: ACCURATE.
SS: 2.0 WAR (#22 in MLB) - A disappointing season by Swanson with a few games of Camargo sprinkled in make up this below average output for the position. Either Swanson performs better, or a contending Braves team gets an upgrade at or before the deadline. Verdict: TOO LOW.
3B: 1.8 WAR (#23 in MLB) - Lots of crap here, but only because AA hasn't addressed the position yet. Even a scrap heap move like Shaw will improve this, and JD will boost the position to the #7 spot or so. Verdict: TOO LOW.
LF: 1.1 WAR (#22 in MLB) - Another collection of junk, and maybe AA is shopping for improvements. My guess is AA fixes this position in the next couple months, at the deadline, or Pache/Waters show they are ready for action. The sooner a RHH is added, the better. Verdict: TOO LOW.
CF: 2.1 WAR (#12 in MLB) - The semi platoon of Ender/Acuna ends up being decent. I want to say Ender goes back to being a 3 WAR guy, but the chances he is in true decline are very real. There is hope Pache is ready towards the end of the year, but LF sucks too, and he is only 1 player. Verdict: ACCURATE.
RF: 3.5 WAR (#6 in MLB) - The Franchise ranks high in RF despite being projected for 100 PAs in CF. I expect a 5+ WAR season with MVP consideration for Acuna, but a nice portion of that will probably be credited to CF, so as far as RF is concerned, this seems about right once factoring in the obligatory injury concerns. Verdict: ACCURATE.
SP: 13.1 WAR (#13 in MLB) - The Soroka/Folty/Fried/Hamels quartet leads this group with contributions from the young MiLB guys. We all hope a young arm takes a step forward, but the injury volatility with pitchers is always going to hammer their projections. At the end of the day the chances of the Braves actually advancing in the playoffs will hinge on 1-2 of these guys pitching like legit TOR SPs in October, but the overall projection seems fine. Verdict: ACCURATE.
RP: 4.3 WAR (#6 in MLB) - AA's splurge in the BP is projected to result in a very good one. I want these projections to be right, but BP arms are scary. Verdict: ACCURATE.
Overall: An 88-92 win team as it currently stands, and AA hasn't addressed 3B yet. I expect him to add 1-3 wins at that position in the next few months. I don't expect him to allow SS and/or LF to drag the roster down all year either, so that's probably 1-2 additional wins depending on when he upgrades SS/LF and how major the upgrade is. Verdict: 92+ wins in 2020.
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=C
Breaking the roster down by position:
C: 3.2 WAR (#6 in MLB) - As expected this is an effective timeshare with Flowers and d'Arnaud. d'Arnaud has the "room for upside" thing going for him, so while it's easy to take the over on this projection, it's just as easy to foresee him being injured like he usually is and coming in below this projection. Verdict: ACCURATE.
1B: 4.4 WAR (#1 in MLB) - This is all Freeman, and nobody is going to argue with him being among the best 1B in the game. We expect a healthy Freeman to produce ~5 WAR, and the threat of injury is all that drags his projection down a bit. Verdict: ACCURATE.
2B: 4.2 WAR (#2 in MLB) - The Ozzie Albies show is being projected to be better than everyone not named Altuve...who beats him by a negligible 0.1 WAR. As with Freeman, this is what we expect from a healthy Albies. Verdict: ACCURATE.
SS: 2.0 WAR (#22 in MLB) - A disappointing season by Swanson with a few games of Camargo sprinkled in make up this below average output for the position. Either Swanson performs better, or a contending Braves team gets an upgrade at or before the deadline. Verdict: TOO LOW.
3B: 1.8 WAR (#23 in MLB) - Lots of crap here, but only because AA hasn't addressed the position yet. Even a scrap heap move like Shaw will improve this, and JD will boost the position to the #7 spot or so. Verdict: TOO LOW.
LF: 1.1 WAR (#22 in MLB) - Another collection of junk, and maybe AA is shopping for improvements. My guess is AA fixes this position in the next couple months, at the deadline, or Pache/Waters show they are ready for action. The sooner a RHH is added, the better. Verdict: TOO LOW.
CF: 2.1 WAR (#12 in MLB) - The semi platoon of Ender/Acuna ends up being decent. I want to say Ender goes back to being a 3 WAR guy, but the chances he is in true decline are very real. There is hope Pache is ready towards the end of the year, but LF sucks too, and he is only 1 player. Verdict: ACCURATE.
RF: 3.5 WAR (#6 in MLB) - The Franchise ranks high in RF despite being projected for 100 PAs in CF. I expect a 5+ WAR season with MVP consideration for Acuna, but a nice portion of that will probably be credited to CF, so as far as RF is concerned, this seems about right once factoring in the obligatory injury concerns. Verdict: ACCURATE.
SP: 13.1 WAR (#13 in MLB) - The Soroka/Folty/Fried/Hamels quartet leads this group with contributions from the young MiLB guys. We all hope a young arm takes a step forward, but the injury volatility with pitchers is always going to hammer their projections. At the end of the day the chances of the Braves actually advancing in the playoffs will hinge on 1-2 of these guys pitching like legit TOR SPs in October, but the overall projection seems fine. Verdict: ACCURATE.
RP: 4.3 WAR (#6 in MLB) - AA's splurge in the BP is projected to result in a very good one. I want these projections to be right, but BP arms are scary. Verdict: ACCURATE.
Overall: An 88-92 win team as it currently stands, and AA hasn't addressed 3B yet. I expect him to add 1-3 wins at that position in the next few months. I don't expect him to allow SS and/or LF to drag the roster down all year either, so that's probably 1-2 additional wins depending on when he upgrades SS/LF and how major the upgrade is. Verdict: 92+ wins in 2020.
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