FG article on lineup construction

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
FG just posted an article on line up construction showing why all hitters with the same wOBA don't lead to as many runs as others: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/should-good-hitters-lead-off-fangraphs-investigates/

TDLR for anyone who doesn't want to read it all: Put your high OBP guys lead off, your sluggers lower in the order, and good hitters in the middle...or exactly what we've already known.

How does this apply to the Braves? That silly little topic of batting Acuna lead off because that's supposedly where he was batting that unlocked his immense potential. Arguably the best power hitter on the team should not be batting behind the worst hitters in the lineup, and this simulation shows such a decision could cost upwards of half a win per year.

In a season where the Braves are projected to finish 1-2 wins behind the Mets, I want that half win.
 
Zero chance snit moves Acuna out of leadoff. His mind can only process what he has seen and it tells him Acuna is only good because he is hitting leadoff. Probably just an average to below average hitter anywhere else in his mind.
 
Enscheff said:
FG just posted an article on line up construction showing why all hitters with the same wOBA don't lead to as many runs as others: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/should-good-hitters-lead-off-fangraphs-investigates/

TDLR for anyone who doesn't want to read it all: Put your high OBP guys lead off, your sluggers lower in the order, and good hitters in the middle...or exactly what we've already known.

How does this apply to the Braves? That silly little topic of batting Acuna lead off because that's supposedly where he was batting that unlocked his immense potential. Arguably the best power hitter on the team should not be batting behind the worst hitters in the lineup, and this simulation shows such a decision could cost upwards of half a win per year.

In a season where the Braves are projected to finish 1-2 wins behind the Mets, I want that half win.
Click to expand...

I haven't read it yet, but who would you put in the leadoff spot? Albies? Swanson?

Pretty much all the high OBP guys are also top power hitters. Which I guess is a good problem to have.
 
DirkPiggler said:
I haven't read it yet, but who would you put in the leadoff spot? Albies? Swanson?

Pretty much all the high OBP guys are also top power hitters. Which I guess is a good problem to have.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Which is why Acuña makes sense near the top of the order (just not lead off where he’s going to hit a bunch of solo homers). He does not need to be at the bottom of the order. Top 1/3 of the middle of the order is the sweet spot. So, cleanup, in other words.
 
With Neck, two-three years ago there was a good argument to bat him leadoff with his OBP and lack of power.

On this team, who is the high OBP guy with low power? Are Dansby or Albies going to be a 350 OBP or better? This is a reason a lot of ppl really wanted Brantley and the DH, b/c it would be wonderful to have a LH, high OBP good hitter.

With the current team don't you still have to go Acuna, FF, Ozuna? After that you argue Albies and TDA. Then Dansby. Then you have Riley and Pache bringing up the rear.
 
DirkPiggler said:
I haven't read it yet, but who would you put in the leadoff spot? Albies? Swanson?

Pretty much all the high OBP guys are also top power hitters. Which I guess is a good problem to have.
Click to expand...

Albies or Swanson are perfect leadoff hitters. They get on base at a good clip and don't have the power of the other guys. Or may be Waters will actually live up to his potential and Snit will finally put Acuna lower in the order since Waters is the "classic" leadoff (i.e. he's fast).
 
Anyone other than the pitcher is acceptable to hit in front of Acuna. Having your 9th place bitter in front of arguably your best power guy is moronic.

Power as in slugging. Not just a pure home run hitter.
 
DirkPiggler said:
I haven't read it yet, but who would you put in the leadoff spot? Albies? Swanson?

Pretty much all the high OBP guys are also top power hitters. Which I guess is a good problem to have.
Click to expand...

Even Freeman makes a better leadoff hitter than Acuna with his higher OBP and lower power. I can't stand listening to Glavine talk about how awesome leadoff homers are when Acuna hits one, and then turn around and say that lead off homers don't bother him since they are only 1 run when the other team hits them. Leadoff homers suck for the offense when they are being hit by the best power hitter on the team because the manager decided to send him to the plate 150+ times with the bases empty.

Against LHP, Albes is the obvious choice to lead off followed by Freeman, Ozuna and Acuna.

Against RHP it's a lot trickier, and is part of the reason the Braves really need that LHH to fill the Markakis role. That guy should be batting leadoff vs RHP.
 
Enscheff said:
Even Freeman makes a better leadoff hitter than Acuna with his higher OBP and lower power. I can't stand listening to Glavine talk about how awesome leadoff homers are when Acuna hits one, and then turn around and say that lead off homers don't bother him since they are only 1 run when the other team hits them. Leadoff homers suck for the offense when they are being hit by the best power hitter on the team because the manager decided to send him to the plate 150+ times with the bases empty.

Against LHP, Albes is the obvious choice to lead off followed by Freeman, Ozuna and Acuna.

Against RHP it's a lot trickier, and is part of the reason the Braves really need that LHH to fill the Markakis role. That guy should be batting leadoff vs RHP.
Click to expand...

Dear God it feels good to hear someone qualify my thoughts for the last two years.
 
Enscheff said:
Even Freeman makes a better leadoff hitter than Acuna with his higher OBP and lower power. I can't stand listening to Glavine talk about how awesome leadoff homers are when Acuna hits one, and then turn around and say that lead off homers don't bother him since they are only 1 run when the other team hits them. Leadoff homers suck for the offense when they are being hit by the best power hitter on the team because the manager decided to send him to the plate 150+ times with the bases empty.

Against LHP, Albes is the obvious choice to lead off followed by Freeman, Ozuna and Acuna.

Against RHP it's a lot trickier, and is part of the reason the Braves really need that LHH to fill the Markakis role. That guy should be batting leadoff vs RHP.
Click to expand...

Understand you want LHH with high OBP at leadoff against RHP, but I'm not following here. Does Pache sit against RH pitchers? In favor of playing Matt Joyce (or similar) in RF? Or Ender in CF?
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Understand you want LHH with high OBP at leadoff against RHP, but I'm not following here. Does Pache sit against RH pitchers? In favor of playing Matt Joyce (or similar) in RF? Or Ender in CF?
Click to expand...

That’s what makes it tricky. Without the DH, there’s nowhere else to stick that LHH if the OF is Ozuna/Pache/Acuna. The answer might be to just have Albies in the leadoff hole full time and hope he makes progress vs RHP.

But the Braves really should stop putting their 40+ HR guy in the leadoff slot. Of course, having a leadoff hitter hitting too many solo HRs is a pretty first world team problem to have.
 
Enscheff said:
That’s what makes it tricky. Without the DH, there’s nowhere else to stick that LHH if the OF is Ozuna/Pache/Acuna. The answer might be to just have Albies in the leadoff hole full time and hope he makes progress vs RHP.

But the Braves really should stop putting their 40+ HR guy in the leadoff slot. Of course, having a leadoff hitter hitting too many solo HRs is a pretty first world team problem to have.
Click to expand...

Concur on Acuña.
 
Ideally, Acuna would bat 2nd but we dont have an ideal leadoff hitter right now. So Acuna at leadoff is okay imo.
 
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