FG Steamers Projections Out

Most players have their best years from age 27-29 and Riley has grown a ton over the years so far. I would bet he has a monster year in the next 3 years even if its a career year he doesnt reach again.
 
Those are very nice vague predictions. Where do you think the extra power is going to come from that leads to the .600 SLG? Higher FB rate? Higher exit velocities? More contact? A fluky HR/FB rate for a season?

Or is the prediction just "monster year because I'm a fan of Riley"?
 
Enscheff said:
Those are very nice vague predictions. Where do you think the extra power is going to come from that leads to the .600 SLG? Higher FB rate? Higher exit velocities? More contact? A fluky HR/FB rate for a season?

Or is the prediction just "monster year because I'm a fan of Riley"?
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A fluky HR/FB rate is destined to happen.
 
It happens, and fluky full season BABIP or HR/FB rate is how guys typically win an MVP.

Freeman won his MVP with a .366 BABIP, and almost won another last year with a .370 BABIP.

It's entirely possible Riley pairs his .368 BABIP from 2021 with an equally fluky 25% HR/FB rate and posts a .310/.375/.600 season, but that's not how projections work. Predicting those types of seasons is how fans work though.
 
Enscheff said:
It happens, and fluky full season BABIP or HR/FB rate is how guys typically win an MVP.

Freeman won his MVP with a .366 BABIP, and almost won another last year with a .370 BABIP.

It's entirely possible Riley pairs his .368 BABIP from 2021 with an equally fluky 25% HR/FB rate and posts a .310/.375/.600 season, but that's not how projections work. Predicting those types of seasons is how fans work though.
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I didn’t say that’s how projections work. I’m just saying that it very likely to happen based on history and we shouldn’t be surprised when it does.
 
CyYoung31 said:
I didn’t say that’s how projections work. I’m just saying that it very likely to happen based on history and we shouldn’t be surprised when it does.
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Never said you did.

I’m responding in general to the narrative “these projections feel light because I think Riley is going to have a monster season for no reason other than I feel like he will have a fluky rate stat in the next 3 years”.

I apologize if this offends anyone.
 
Enscheff said:
Those are very nice vague predictions. Where do you think the extra power is going to come from that leads to the .600 SLG? Higher FB rate? Higher exit velocities? More contact? A fluky HR/FB rate for a season?

Or is the prediction just "monster year because I'm a fan of Riley"?
Click to expand...




I base it on him entering his physical prime. Most players have a career year from ages 27-29. That's a statistical fact. Doesn't mean it's guaranteed but it's good odds. Riley has put in work to improve his physical condition so I don't think he has physically peaked. I see a combination of a good BABIP season with some good HR/FBI luck. Like his 2021 season with 45 HR and 90 XBH total.
 
Enscheff said:
Never said you did.

I’m responding in general to the narrative “these projections feel light because I think Riley is going to have a monster season for no reason other than I feel like he will have a fluky rate stat in the next 3 years”.

I apologize if this offends anyone.
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I saidy reasoning in my post. That he was entering his physical prime when most players have their career year.
 
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