He was 31 when the Braves got him and I thought the team wouldn't get value out of the contract they signed him to. He's not an athletic guy and those guys can fall off quickly. He's been < .800 OPS since we got him. Is that worth $13 million per year?
There are a couple rough rules of thumb for predicting how players will age.
1) Athleticism, which can mainly be judged by defense and base running. The more athletic guys age better.
2) Late arrivers to the majors also tend to age more quickly.
These two rules are not 100% accurate, but they have validity. Both were red flags with respect to Uggla.
Interestingly, these same indicators suggested BJ was not at risk for a rapid decline. We overpaid for BJ, but at the time the issue seemed more one of dollars than years. With Uggla it seemed apparent at the time of the extension that the main risk was the length of the extension.
I will say that I think Wren took risks with Uggla and BJ in areas where there was a gap in what the farm system was providing. At the time of the Uggla trade and extension we had a need for a right-handed power hitter and a left fieldier. Uggla filled both, though indirectly with Prado moving to left. Also the off-season Wren signed BJ there was a clear need for a center fielder. There was discussion about the pros and cons of Bourn, BJ, Victorino, Hamilton and Pagan. All those guys carried risk. So far Victorino has been the one that looks good. But that's with hindsight. I don't recall a big pro-Victorino contingent on the old board that off-season. My recollection is that the BJ signing was generally met with enthusiasm, though some of us thought the price was a bit high. But then the price is usually high when you dabble in the FA market.
It is worth noting that the poster who started this thread (unless I have him confused with someone else) advocated either Ellsbury or Sizemore as acquisitions this off-season as solutions to our problems in center. I look forward to seeing how that works out.