Freddie to third base??

TheBravos said:
1. I don't think this will happen, and is probably just the Braves trying to drive the price of Adam's up for teams that want him with the "Fine, we'll just keep him." bluff.

2. It's not "so" far fetched because Freddie was a 3rd baseman. He knows the position and was probably moved because they had Chipper. Let's say he's horrible. We probably win a few games with Adams bat and loose a few with Freddie's mishaps at 3rd. It's probably a wash and even if it looses us a few...just gives us a better draft pick. We then keep Adams as a bench bat or trade him in the offseason.

3. I doubt it happens, but a lineup with Adams, Kemp and Freddie in the middle (assuming Adams doesn't regress...which is possible), would be pretty nasty. Where is the weak spot 1-8 with Dansby hitting now.
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The only way Adams doesn't regress is if he suddenly has more power than guys like Stanton and Sano and Judge, and continues at a 27% HR/FB rate.

Anyone saying Adams is a .900+ OPS true talent hitter is saying he suddenly has the best power in the game.
 
Enscheff said:
Oh, you mean Matt Adams, the guy with a HR/FB rate of 27% with the Braves.

Let's see what happens when that rate normalizes to his usual rate of about half that value....

HRs go from 10 to 5. Those 5 missing HRs turn into 1 double and 4 fly outs based on a BABIP of ~.200 on fly balls.

Suddenly, Adams' line is .261/.317/.478 (.796 OPS).

Or....almost exactly his career line.

Adams is not a true talent .900 OPS hitter. He is a true talent sub .800 OPS hitter. That's why he has little trade value. That's why the Braves got him for Yepez.

A few weeks with a lucky HR/FB doesn't change any of that. Sorry, msstake7.
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You mean his career when he was 30 pounds heavier? He's in great shape. In his prime. Playing in a great ballpark for his skills.

I'm not betting he's a 900 OPS guy either. But to just say he's going to do this is overstating. He's not hitting wallscrapers. He could have made a change. Is Flowers automatically going to go back to a sub 100 wrc+? I bet you told us that last year.
 
msstate7 said:
Yeah, I have strong doubts he can sustain his .910 ops. He does seem to hit well at suntrust though... hit hr vs braves earlier this season. He's ops'd in .830s before in over 300 PAs earlier in his career though and he's in the best shape of his professional career. Who knows where he finishes with his ops?
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I just told you where/how he finishes.

After watching Kemp's WAR slide all season after a blazing start, do you still not understand how players normalize back to career rates?
 
Enscheff said:
Oh, you mean Matt Adams, the guy with a HR/FB rate of 27% with the Braves.

Let's see what happens when that rate normalizes to his usual rate of about half that value....

HRs go from 10 to 5. Those 5 missing HRs turn into 1 double and 4 fly outs based on a BABIP of ~.200 on fly balls.

Suddenly, Adams' line is .261/.317/.478 (.796 OPS).

Or....almost exactly his career line.

Adams is not a true talent .900 OPS hitter. He is a true talent sub .800 OPS hitter. That's why he has little trade value. That's why the Braves got him for Yepez.

A few weeks with a lucky HR/FB doesn't change any of that. Sorry, msstake7.
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Given he has lost a massive amount of weight that could be aiding his production. How long does he need to continue doing this until we say..."This is The new Matt Adams."? The trade deadline? The end of the year? I agree he is hot, but I disagree that he will completely regress. I think it will be somewhere in the middle. I think him getting in better shape has at least something to do with his production.
 
Russ2dollas said:
You mean his career when he was 30 pounds heavier? He's in great shape. In his prime. Playing in a great ballpark for his skills.

I'm not betting he's a 900 OPS guy either. But to just say he's going to do this is overstating. He's not hitting wallscrapers. He could have made a change. Is Flowers automatically going to go back to a sub 100 wrc+? I bet you told us that last year.
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Ah yes, the BSOML talking point lol.

Bringing up Flowers show you have no idea what you're talking about. Flowers is running an unsustainable BABIP of .402 right now. His career mark is in the .330 range. So yes, Flowers current offensive output is also not likely to continue.

Flowers has, however, made real improvements in his BB and K rates over the last 2 years. He is a true talent .750-.800 OPS guy, not the .895 OPS he is currently posting.
 
TheBravos said:
Given he has lost a massive amount of weight that could be aiding his production. How long does he need to continue doing this until we say..."This is The new Matt Adams."? The trade deadline? The end of the year? I agree he is hot, but I disagree that he will completely regress. I think it will be somewhere in the middle. I think him getting in better shape has at least something to do with his production.
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When his HR/FB rate normalizes back to the 15%-20% range, then you can look at his stat line and say "This is the new Matt Adams".
 
For reference, here are the highest HR/FB rates for all qualified hitters from 2010-now:

Name HR/FB
Giancarlo Stanton 25.40%
Chris Davis 25.00%
Miguel Sano 24.00%
George Springer 23.40%
Pedro Alvarez 22.90%
Khris Davis 22.70%
Justin Bour 22.30%
Steven Souza Jr. 21.30%
Adam Dunn 21.10%
Chris Carter 20.80%

That list consists of guys with 70+ raw power, and all of them have a lower rate than Adams.

Is it starting to sink in just how unsustainable Adams' current 27% HR/FB rate is? Or does the board braintrust now think Adams has more power than Stanton and Sano, the premier power hitters in the game today?
 
Enscheff said:
For reference, here are the highest HR/FB rates for all qualified hitters from 2010-now:

Name HR/FB
Giancarlo Stanton 25.40%
Chris Davis 25.00%
Miguel Sano 24.00%
George Springer 23.40%
Pedro Alvarez 22.90%
Khris Davis 22.70%
Justin Bour 22.30%
Steven Souza Jr. 21.30%
Adam Dunn 21.10%
Chris Carter 20.80%

That list consists of guys with 70+ raw power, and all of them have a lower rate than Adams.

Is it starting to sink in just how unsustainable Adams' current 27% HR/FB rate is? Or does the board braintrust now think Adams has more power than Stanton and Sano?
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OH GOOD GRIEF. Nobody is saying that he will sustain exactly what he is doing now. Only that he is somewhere between where he was before and where he is now. That is a very valuable hitter.

We understand 'regression to the mean,' all other things being equal. It is fun to look at what other things might not be equal (losing 30 pounds, getting to play every day, playing in a park that favors LH power hitters), and wonder if those things might make him truly a better hitter than he was before those things happened.

Lighten up and have a discussion without berating anyone who doesn't bow to your vastly superior statistical understanding.
 
mfree80 said:
OH GOOD GRIEF. Nobody is saying that he will sustain exactly what he is doing now. Only that he is somewhere between where he was before and where he is now. That is a very valuable hitter.

We understand 'regression to the mean,' all other things being equal. It is fun to look at what other things might not be equal (losing 30 pounds, getting to play every day, playing in a park that favors LH power hitters), and wonder if those things might make him truly a better hitter than he was before those things happened.

Lighten up and have a discussion without berating anyone who doesn't bow to your vastly superior statistical understanding.
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So where do you think his HR/FB rate will settle now that he has lost 30 lbs? Literally nothing else about his batting peripherals have changed, so what else could possibly explain his increased production?
 
Enscheff said:
So where do you think his HR/FB rate will settle now that he has lost 30 lbs? Literally nothing else about his batting peripherals have changed, so what else could possibly explain his increased production?
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Who knows? In all your brilliance though, you never saw it being this high now.
 
msstate7 said:
Who knows? In all your brilliance though, you never saw it being this high now.
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Huh? Nobody predicts when someone is going to have a lucky HR/FB streak. The best anyone can do is make sure their projections aren't skewed by something unsustainable.

What point are you even trying to make? Another desperate attempt to make me "wrong" about something...anything?
 
Enscheff said:
Huh? Nobody predicts when someone is going to have a lucky HR/FB streak. The best anyone can do is make sure their projections aren't skewed by something unsustainable.

What point are you even trying to make? Another desperate attempt to make me "wrong" about something...anything?
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Lol oh my... you give yourself way too credit. I enjoy this board bc I love the braves. I made the KEMvP bet bc I thought he'd have a good year and give me something to keep up with once the braves are done with any longshot playoff hopes. Most of the time I just assume to troll you as actually argue with you. Posting here obviously isn't as life-and-death to me as it is to you. Dig in enscheff and prove you are the absolute greatest pretend GM to ever grace the message board world. You the man
 
msstate7 said:
Lol oh my... you give yourself way too credit. I enjoy this board bc I love the braves. I made the KEMvP bet bc I thought he'd have a good year and give me something to keep up with once the braves are done with any longshot playoff hopes. Most of the time I just assume to troll you as actually argue with you. Posting here obviously isn't as life-and-death to me as it is to you. Dig in enscheff and prove you are the absolute greatest GM to ever grace the message board world. You the man
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Derp along msstake7, derp along lol.
 
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