Fried - appetite for extension?

GovClintonTyree

GovClintonTyree

<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Believe me, I understand the risks involved with signing any pitcher to a big guaranteed deal. Washington will never recover from Strasburg and (to a lesser extent) Corbin. Arizona has cut bait with Bumgarner. Ad nauseum.

You could make the argument, certainly on Stras and Bum, that the decline was highly predictable, given injuries and trends. But every now and then, a pitcher outperforms a contract (Scherzer, twice, comes to mind). With Fried, the trends are up on xERA and xFIP. ZiPS doesn't like anybody, but they like him. Other than a few nicks here and there he's been durable. He's done a marvelous job of improving his command to near elite status and successfully adding multiple weapons to use. He's in excellent condition and a great athlete. All that bodes well for his longevity, and AA has gone on record as saying he believes Fried will age well.

We continue to pay Charlie Morton $20M for $8M production, which doesn't have to continue after this current deal is done. Next year is the last year for Ozuna's money. Does it make sense to sign Fried if he'd bite on, say, 5y-$150M?

I wouldn't do it for most any other pitcher I can think of, but if I were going to do it, he'd be the one. Understanding there's a gigantic gamble with any pitcher, that their arms can fall off any minute.

Thoughts?
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Believe me, I understand the risks involved with signing any pitcher to a big guaranteed deal. Washington will never recover from Strasburg and (to a lesser extent) Corbin. Arizona has cut bait with Bumgarner. Ad nauseum.

You could make the argument, certainly on Stras and Bum, that the decline was highly predictable, given injuries and trends. But every now and then, a pitcher outperforms a contract (Scherzer, twice, comes to mind). With Fried, the trends are up on xERA and xFIP. ZiPS doesn't like anybody, but they like him. Other than a few nicks here and there he's been durable. He's done a marvelous job of improving his command to near elite status and successfully adding multiple weapons to use. He's in excellent condition and a great athlete. All that bodes well for his longevity, and AA has gone on record as saying he believes Fried will age well.

We continue to pay Charlie Morton $20M for $8M production, which doesn't have to continue after this current deal is done. Next year is the last year for Ozuna's money. Does it make sense to sign Fried if he'd bite on, say, 5y-$150M?

I wouldn't do it for most any other pitcher I can think of, but if I were going to do it, he'd be the one. Understanding there's a gigantic gamble with any pitcher, that their arms can fall off any minute.

Thoughts?
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Pretty sure they are on the hook for the deferred money to Scherzer as well.

Not based off performance, but he had $15m a year deferred from 2022-2028....

Washington is paying the payments from 22-27 and the Dodgers are making the final payment in 2028
 
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5/150 would be fine for Fried. I just don't see him accepting that. He is probably over 20 mil in arby next year anyways. That means he's basically signing away his FA years for 4/130. If he remains at his current level, he will undoubtedly get a FA Deal nearing 200 million or more.

Consider Carlos Rodon's contract with the Yanks at 6/162. I think we can all agree that Fried has been considerably better and healthier than Rodon. An extension probably looks something like 7/175 or 6/165. That would buyout his FA years at a rough value of 5/145 or 6/155. A fairly good discount for an ace in the current market.

I doubt the Braves do it. But I've been extremely surprised with our willingness to spend money, so who knows.
 
I believe he has told Braves management he intends to test the market.

As a west coast guy, there are a lot of teams that can out bid us out there
 
The Braves will need to sign 1 really good arm this offseason and let Morton walk. That’ll help lessen the blow the following offseason if Fried does wanna go back out west. The next 2 offseasons have good FA SP.
 
This is the chance for AA to grab the odd man out with short term deals to fill the rotation. Let’s not guarantee money into mid/late 30s
 
I still like the thought of extending Soroka on a very team friendly deal. I can't imagine he would command too much with his injury risk. But if he stays healthy, then you should have a very good pitcher.
 
So far guys either extend early or they do not.

Fried had not extended early so I do not think he will. He’s so close to free agency now he probably should not.

Braves need to hope strider is really a TOR and hope wright is a 2/3. They have several 4/5 options.

I think you look for that 3 war vet you can get on a short term deal and put money upgrade in lf if we haven’t fixed it yet.
 
Russ2dollas said:
So far guys either extend early or they do not.

Fried had not extended early so I do not think he will. He’s so close to free agency now he probably should not.

Braves need to hope strider is really a TOR and hope wright is a 2/3. They have several 4/5 options.

I think you look for that 3 war vet you can get on a short term deal and put money upgrade in lf if we haven’t fixed it yet.
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Losing Fried will really hurt the rotation. They’ll either have to resign him or bring in somebody with similar production. Morton is that vet you’re talking about and he’ll more than likely be gone this offseason. So AA will have to get a pretty good starter this offseason and next.
 
Hudson2 said:
Losing Fried will really hurt the rotation. They’ll either have to resign him or bring in somebody with similar production. Morton is that vet you’re talking about and he’ll more than likely be gone this offseason. So AA will have to get a pretty good starter this offseason and next.
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I don't think they will. I get what you are saying.

But they haven't signed him yet. I don't think we will sign him. Everyone that has extended has extended early.

If you lose him there are only what, 5-25 guys who are in the same tier? Most aren't available. If they are available it will cost more than Fried to get them or they'll have a big injury issue or age issue.

So to make up the 2-4 WAR they'll lose with Max they'll have to make it up somewhere else. Just isn't practical to go out and sign another Max.
 
I think next offseason is when AA finally hits on that top tier SP on a short deal like he's been rumored to have offered the last 2-3 years.
 
Dreamer in me: After last night -and today- I’d like to see AA just back the truck up and lock him down for this whole window. We have almost every other position locked up already so it’s not like we need to spend heavily anywhere else.

Reality - we have four more potential TOR ace level pitchers down on the low farm - maybe one is legit, and if Elder and Soroka are real, we NEED to spend that money on a STUD iron- clad LOCK of a free agent bat at SS or LF.
 
Hulavol said:
Dreamer in me: After last night -and today- I’d like to see AA just back the truck up and lock him down for this whole window. We have almost every other position locked up already so it’s not like we need to spend heavily anywhere else.

Reality - we have four more potential TOR ace level pitchers down on the low farm - maybe one is legit, and if Elder and Soroka are real, we NEED to spend that money on a STUD iron- clad LOCK of a free agent bat at SS or LF.
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Nah. You can build a left fielder with a couple platoon guys and it’s not a critical defensive position. Arcia plays short and he’s tied up for three years. The place to spend the money is on the ace, not some guys in A ball who might become the ace, or on Soroka, who is more likely to break again. There aren’t many better bets as a pitcher to stay that productive for five years than Fried.
 
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It would be silly for AA to give a bat only player like Ozuna 4 years and then not give Fried 5. However, it’s still not wise to sign a pitcher into his mid/late 30s.

The correct play is what AA always does. He needs to have a backup plan, then upgrade at the best value position available. This was the blueprint he followed this year with Arcia and Murphy, and I expect the same going forward. If that value is a SP on a 2-3 year deal, or a big upgrade at SS for similar value it doesn’t really matter…just like it didn’t matter where the upgrades came this year.
 
AA should and probably will upgrade the roster with the best value play available, just like he did this year with Murphy. If that value is a SP or a SS or a LF doesn’t really matter.
 
The time for a Fried extension was 3 years ago.

Ship has sailed. He aint coming back now.
 
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