Future SS

Enscheff said:
"Albies 2017" was probably just an attempt to calm the fanbase after Simmons was traded. It's possible, but he just completed his 18 year old season at the low A level. He will obviously start his age 19 season at high A, and might earn a promotion to AA at some point that year. If he tears it up in AA he could be ready sometime in 2017 as a 20 year old, but that is really pushing it.

I think the better option will be to offer Aybar a QO, and if he rejects it go find a stopgap FA SS for 1-2 years.

Just realized that doesn't answer anything about Swanson/Albies at SS, sorry!
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No to the Aybar QO. Next year a QO will probably be worth in excess of $16M. You could get 2-3 Aybars for that....
 
Horsehide Harry said:
No to the Aybar QO. Next year a QO will probably be worth in excess of $16M. You could get 2-3 Aybars for that....
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Um, Aybar has been a consistent 2-4 WAR player since 2008. He has never been below average offensively or defensively, and he plays SS. He will be 32 next year. If he puts up his usual 2-3 WAR next year and hits the FA market he would easily get a contract right around the 4/56 deal Zobrist just signed.

Giving Aybar a QO is pretty much a no-brainer if he produces anywhere near the level he should in 2016. If he accepts (highly unlikely) he would be a perfect stopgap at SS for 1/16 until Swanson or Albies are ready to take over long term.
 
Enscheff said:
I have no idea, I'm not a scout. I haven't seen either in person, and I'm not sure it would matter if I did see them both since I don't know anything about grading professional players. I can't imagine Swanson has more range than Albies right now just based on their speed grades, so I don't see how a 24 year old Swanson will have better range than a 20 years old Albies.

As far as throwing arm, I can only go by the ratings I see on the internet, and that gives a 60-55 edge to Albies.

I have no idea who was playing SS at Vandy that forced Swanson to 2B, but either he was an absolute stud defender, or Swanson was merely adequate at SS when he was older than Albies is right now.
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I have no idea who has more range, but Simmons doesn't have good speed... Yet the range is there
 
msstate7 said:
I have no idea who has more range, but Simmons doesn't have good speed... Yet the range is there
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speed can help you with Range.. but usually foot work and quickness are key with range.. Also, Simmons could take less direct angles and make up for it with his arm...that can't be taught..
 
I mean, sure, none of us are experts. But Albies has a current 50 grade in the field compared to Swanson's 55. I love what I've seen of Albies, and I think in terms of range and hands he can definitely play SS. But just based on my own observations, I think Swanson is the more likely to stick at SS with Albies at 2B. I think that would give us the best overall value.

I do not at all think Swanson should move to 3B...that would diminish the value he can bring defensively and would also take away some of the value of his bat. I think Swanson and Albies need to stay up the middle for as long as possible.
 
Enscheff said:
Um, Aybar has been a consistent 2-4 WAR player since 2008. He has never been below average offensively or defensively, and he plays SS. He will be 32 next year. If he puts up his usual 2-3 WAR next year and hits the FA market he would easily get a contract right around the 4/56 deal Zobrist just signed.

Giving Aybar a QO is pretty much a no-brainer if he produces anywhere near the level he should in 2016. If he accepts (highly unlikely) he would be a perfect stopgap at SS for 1/16 until Swanson or Albies are ready to take over long term.
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I hope you are right but I don't see it. Not that he is terrible. I just wouldn't risk getting saddled with the QO unless there was extra money just lying around....
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I hope you are right but I don't see it. Not that he is terrible. I just wouldn't risk getting saddled with the QO unless there was extra money just lying around....
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To me, it just depends on whether or not Swanson is ready. If he is, you only give the QO to Aybar if you know for sure he won't take it. If Swanson is not ready, you give the QO and even if he takes it, you're fine.
 
smootness said:
To me, it just depends on whether or not Swanson is ready. If he is, you only give the QO to Aybar if you know for sure he won't take it. If Swanson is not ready, you give the QO and even if he takes it, you're fine.
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Also even if Swanson is ready it would likely be smart to hold him back atleast a month for service time purposes. Having Aybar again in 2017 and then trading him at the deadline and promoting Swanson wouldn't be the worst thing.
 
thewupk said:
Also even if Swanson is ready it would likely be smart to hold him back atleast a month for service time purposes. Having Aybar again in 2016 and then trading him at the deadline and promoting Swanson wouldn't be the worst thing.
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No, but your timing may not work right there. Maybe you could move Aybar to 2B if necessary when calling Swanson up?
 
smootness said:
No, but your timing may not work right there. Maybe you could move Aybar to 2B if necessary when calling Swanson up?
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Sure. And even if you hold Swanson back till the deadline you would still save on him being a super 2. It just gives the Braves more options. If Aybar has a 2-3 WAR sason I see no way he accepts a QO. If it's 1.5-2 then it might get iffy. But again I can think of a lot worse options than Aybar for 1 year at that price.
 
thewupk said:
Sure. And even if you hold Swanson back till the deadline you would still save on him being a super 2. It just gives the Braves more options. If Aybar has a 2-3 WAR sason I see no way he accepts a QO. If it's 1.5-2 then it might get iffy. But again I can think of a lot worse options than Aybar for 1 year at that price.
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Yeah, again, to me it just depends on whether or not we think Aybar will accept the QO, or whether there's even a chance he will. If Swanson is basically ready and you're not sure Aybar won't accept a QO, you don't give it to him. If you are sure he won't accept it, or if Swanson needs at least another couple months in the minors, you offer him the QO.
 
smootness said:
I mean, sure, none of us are experts. But Albies has a current 50 grade in the field compared to Swanson's 55. I love what I've seen of Albies, and I think in terms of range and hands he can definitely play SS. But just based on my own observations, I think Swanson is the more likely to stick at SS with Albies at 2B. I think that would give us the best overall value.

I do not at all think Swanson should move to 3B...that would diminish the value he can bring defensively and would also take away some of the value of his bat. I think Swanson and Albies need to stay up the middle for as long as possible.
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Smoot, I know you've seen him, but I saw about 20 or so games of Albies....he's got great range and makes all the throws. Routinely behind 2b he'll make the play and he has no where near Simmons arm, but it's strong enough. I haven't seen Dansby except 1/10th of a game and I didn't know who he was. In any case, I think you leave them both alone unless you accelerate the learning for Albies. I think 2B is right up his ally although I love him as a SS.
 
I'm with Deester here. Ozzie's arm is impressive, and he is a sharp, heady defender. I do have a hard time believing that Swanson is better than him at this point.
 
Deester11 said:
Smoot, I know you've seen him, but I saw about 20 or so games of Albies....he's got great range and makes all the throws. Routinely behind 2b he'll make the play and he has no where near Simmons arm, but it's strong enough. I haven't seen Dansby except 1/10th of a game and I didn't know who he was. In any case, I think you leave them both alone unless you accelerate the learning for Albies. I think 2B is right up his ally although I love him as a SS.
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This is fair. I only saw him in one game, but I was noticeably underwhelmed with his arm. It honestly made me question if he was capable of sticking at SS. But who knows, maybe I was influenced by Simmons or maybe I just didn't see him let loose.

But the video of Swanson to me looks like a clearly stronger arm than what I saw from Albies.
 
smootness said:
This is fair. I only saw him in one game, but I was noticeably underwhelmed with his arm. It honestly made me question if he was capable of sticking at SS. But who knows, maybe I was influenced by Simmons or maybe I just didn't see him let loose.

But the video of Swanson to me looks like a clearly stronger arm than what I saw from Albies.
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Well as much as I saw him, I tried so hard not to compare him throwing with Simmons. But when you're spoiled by the best...it's what you do (Geico?). I will say that of that Rome team, the buzz was always about Albies and not so much about Davidson. I enjoyed Braxton's dad a lot though so I'll have to partner up with all the Rome prospects parents again.

Anywho, Albies is special. When I walked into the stadium opening day and saw him, I was like, there is no way this guy is that highly touted. After the first game, I was hooked. The one thing we all agree on is that those two will anchor the middle for a long time.
 
Absolutely. I certainly don't mean to diminish Albies in any way. I had the same feeling - I watched him one time and instantly knew I was watching a future stud. Love love love his hitting ability.
 
Considering both guys are probably going to start the year in high A, they will have to make that decision almost immediately.
 
Enscheff said:
Considering both guys are probably going to start the year in high A, they will have to make that decision almost immediately.
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Right. I wonder if they may switch them around some just to see which arrangement works best. That, or they already know what they're doing.
 
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