Garcia being traded to Twins

People who are upset with how this trade turned out need to realize that what we got is probably as good as we could expect for a mediocre starter that is nothing but a rental. Honestly, whether we picked up the rest of the tab or not probably wasn't going to make a huge difference.

I never liked trading for Garcia in the first place.
 
Enscheff said:
Ariel

3:22 Sonny Gray has a start today. You think A's sit him down in case of any trades?

Steve Adams

3:24 Only if they're in pretty advanced talks at the time the start is nearing. Otherwise I expect him to make the outing. Even if he gets rocked for 5-6 runs, it's not going to impact his value as long there's no injury at play. The notion that one great or bad start can alter a player's trade value is utter nonsense. Some tried to suggest that Jaime Garcia's two starts prior to his trade "really increased his trade value," and he was (predictably) dealt for an underwhelming return.
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I just find it funny that Steve Adams felt the need to copy and paste my statements in his chat
 
Tapate50 said:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/scouting-new-braves-prospect-huascar-ynoa/

Looks like our resident expert :FrediWut: did under sell Ynoa a bit. Longenhan likes him a good bit.
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The thing people need to keep in mind with FV (which Longenhagen points out) is that it is partially based on distance from the majors. I like the old ceiling/% chance of reaching ceiling rating that BP used to use (and maybe they still use it). Ynoa has a fairly high ceiling, but his percent chance of reaching it is a different story entirely. I prefer Ynoa to Burdi given Burdi's injury history, but Ynoa is a roll of the dice. Hope it turns out to be a good roll. Braves have been more successful than the Twins in getting raw minor league pitchers to higher levels of achievement (although not necessarily to the major leagues), so I'm interested to see how Ynoa does in Danville.
 
Yeah that is my problem with FV too. Was also a big fan of BP at one time. I also liked their projection system that showed more than just the average of 100 however many simulations of a season they did. They also showed the higher and lower ends of projected seasons.
 
50PoundHead said:
The thing people need to keep in mind with FV (which Longenhagen points out) is that it is partially based on distance from the majors. I like the old ceiling/% chance of reaching ceiling rating that BP used to use (and maybe they still use it). Ynoa has a fairly high ceiling, but his percent chance of reaching are a different story entirely. I prefer Ynoa to Burdi given Burdi's injury history, but Ynoa is a roll of the dice. Hope it turns out to be a good roll. Braves have been more successful than the Twins in getting raw minor league pitchers to higher levels of achievement (although not necessarily to the major leagues), so I'm interested to see how Ynoa does in Danville.
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It's a gamble either way. A 40 FV in AAA has a higher chance of actually doing something at the major league level than a 40 FV guy in rookie ball. However that 40 FV guy in rookie ball also has more room for growth during his development process and could be a higher ranked prospect once he gets to the upper minors.

Another more apparent example is someone like Maitan compared to Manny Margot. Both were 55 FV guys coming into the year. One in AAA and the other never having a pro AB. Both have the same relative value right now but it's easy to see someone like Maitan being a 70 FV monster by the time he hits the upper minors. In that same vein it obviously wouldn't be unheard of for Maitan to completely bust before he gets there as he's only 17 and a ways a way.

Just things to keep in mind. At the stage the Braves are in and the level of prospect we were getting back for Garcia I would always prefer the guy with a chance to improve his stock while developing.
 
50PoundHead said:
The thing people need to keep in mind with FV (which Longenhagen points out) is that it is partially based on distance from the majors. I like the old ceiling/% chance of reaching ceiling rating that BP used to use (and maybe they still use it). Ynoa has a fairly high ceiling, but his percent chance of reaching are a different story entirely. I prefer Ynoa to Burdi given Burdi's injury history, but Ynoa is a roll of the dice. Hope it turns out to be a good roll. Braves have been more successful than the Twins in getting raw minor league pitchers to higher levels of achievement (although not necessarily to the major leagues), so I'm interested to see how Ynoa does in Danville.
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Agreed. You can have a 40 FV guy who is a 24 year old AAA lifer or one who is a 19 year old in A ball with a high ceiling. It appears the Braves went for the latter, fortunately.
 
thewupk said:
It's a gamble either way. A 40 FV in AAA has a higher chance of actually doing something at the major league level than a 40 FV guy in rookie ball. However that 40 FV guy in rookie ball also has more room for growth during his development process and could be a higher ranked prospect once he gets to the upper minors.

Another more apparent example is someone like Maitan compared to Manny Margot. Both were 55 FV guys coming into the year. One in AAA and the other never having a pro AB. Both have the same relative value right now but it's easy to see someone like Maitan being a 70 FV monster by the time he hits the upper minors. In that same vein it obviously wouldn't be unheard of for Maitan to completely bust before he gets there as he's only 17 and a ways a way.

Just things to keep in mind. At the stage the Braves are in and the level of prospect we were getting back for Garcia I would always prefer the guy with a chance to improve his stock while developing.
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It's always a roll of the dice to some extent. Like striker, the Garcia deal was always a bit of a head scratcher to me, but I think it fit with the Johns theme of "we're going to look like we're competing even if we aren't." Gant may develop into something, but Ellis looks to have topped out in AA and Dykstra has simply fallen off the earth (and I had hopes for him). I don't think there was ever a big market for Garcia (or at least not as big as the Johns had hoped). But given where the Braves are realistically, I agree that the return should be a lower-level guy who might get some helium as opposed to someone in AAA who has "spare part" tattooed on his forehead.
 
Twins got a slightly better return by eating all the money. But it's not really worth caring about one way or another. They're both meh returns, and I generally prefer the guys who are younger with more upside.
 
smootness said:
Twins got a slightly better return by eating all the money. But it's not really worth caring about one way or another. They're both meh returns, and I generally prefer the guys who are younger with more upside.
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Agreed. And who don't need to be on a 40 man roster next year.
 
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