GDT 05/20/19 Braves vs. Giants

Enscheff said:
Everyone is going to hate hearing this, but Soroka's BABIP against is .203, his HR/FB rate is 3.8%, and his LOB% is 87.2%. Needless to say, those numbers are insanely unsustainable.

His xFIP of 3.69 and his xwOBA of .272 are more in line with what we should expect moving forward. He certainly seems like a guy who could outperform his xFIP by ~0.5 runs, but it's silly to think he will outperform it by 2-3 runs.

That's the legit #2/#3 SP we all expected him to be, and when he's going good folks will argue over semantics that he is a "TOR SP". We've seen Fried regress, and we will see Soroka regress as well.
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I'd hope everyone realizes this is the case. haha He'll probably get torched in a start or two and his ERA will balloon (well, opposed to ONE...) and everyone will freak out (myself included) and everything will be fine when his next start is excellent again.
 
Soroka has put up some crazy HR/FB rates.

2.8% in 143 innings in High A in 2016

6.8% in 154 innings in AA in 2017

0.0% in 27 innings in AAA in 2018

5.0% in 25 innings in the majors in 2018

3.8% in 45 innings in the majors in 2019
 
I am pretty certain he won’t finish with a 1 era. But the fact he has done this over 7 starts against various teams tells me he can probably exceed his FIp on a consistent basis. He is not a strikeout pitcher so his batted ball profile will be below league average. I do wonder how he will age.
 
Enscheff said:
Everyone is going to hate hearing this, but Soroka's BABIP against is .203, his HR/FB rate is 3.8%, and his LOB% is 87.2%. Needless to say, those numbers are insanely unsustainable.

His xFIP of 3.69 and his xwOBA of .272 are more in line with what we should expect moving forward. He certainly seems like a guy who could outperform his xFIP by ~0.5 runs, but it's silly to think he will outperform it by 2-3 runs.

That's the legit #2/#3 SP we all expected him to be, and when he's going good folks will argue over semantics that he is a "TOR SP". We've seen Fried regress, and we will see Soroka regress as well.
Click to expand...

I do think Soroka has a window to be one of those unicorns who can outperform his metrics to a certain extent, but you are right that he is certainly going to see some regression soon. Its just going to be a matter of degree. Will he limit the regression enough to still be considered ToR? Maybe. But like you said its probably more likely that he becomes a 2 or really good 3 this year. Those numbers leave a LOT of room for regression, though. He's probably going to see at least +.070 points of BABIP regression, +5-6% in HR/FB, and -15% in LOB%.

One important thing to note, though, is just how damn young the kid is. He still has room to improve. He already has great command of his pitches and great sequencing for a kid his age, but those are things that you can hope to improve/refine going into years 3/4/5. Maybe he finds another pitch or something along the way. Lots of ways for him to get to the point where both his performance and his metrics paint him as a ToR type of guy, but thats probably something we shouldn't count on this season.

At any rate, he's certainly going to be a staple in our rotation for a long time provided he can stay healthy.
 
nsacpi said:
Soroka has put up some crazy HR/FB rates.

2.8% in 143 innings in High A in 2016

6.8% in 154 innings in AA in 2017

0.0% in 27 innings in AAA in 2018

5.0% in 25 innings in the majors in 2018

3.8% in 45 innings in the majors in 2019
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Guys just don't square him up. He can also carve em up.

Thanks for posting. I remember him being allergic to the long ball and the walk, but this is good info going forward.
 
nsacpi said:
Soroka has put up some crazy HR/FB rates.

2.8% in 143 innings in High A in 2016

6.8% in 154 innings in AA in 2017

0.0% in 27 innings in AAA in 2018

5.0% in 25 innings in the majors in 2018

3.8% in 45 innings in the majors in 2019
Click to expand...

To put these numbers in perspective a bit...

Last year, DeGrom and Bauer led all qualified SPs with a HR/FB rate of 6.3%, and both had career years.

DeGrom had a HR/FB rate of 16.1% in 2017, and is sitting at 15.6% this year.

Bauer had a HR/FB rate of 16.1% in 2017, and a rate of 13.6% this year.

So yes, it's possible for guys to get lucky and sustain an unsustainable rate for a full season. That's usually how a guy has a career season, and it's important to understand why certain performances are unlikely to be repeated going forward. That is accomplished by understanding which stats are predictive, and which ones aren't.
 
Enscheff said:
Everyone is going to hate hearing this, but Soroka's BABIP against is .203, his HR/FB rate is 3.8%, and his LOB% is 87.2%. Needless to say, those numbers are insanely unsustainable.

His xFIP of 3.69 and his xwOBA of .272 are more in line with what we should expect moving forward. He certainly seems like a guy who could outperform his xFIP by ~0.5 runs, but it's silly to think he will outperform it by 2-3 runs.

That's the legit #2/#3 SP we all expected him to be, and when he's going good folks will argue over semantics that he is a "TOR SP". We've seen Fried regress, and we will see Soroka regress as well.
Click to expand...

In the minors he avoided the super ball being used now. He'll have to start in some of the MLB band boxes with the super ball and HRs will go.

I'm not debating Soroka. Every day he pitches is great and I feel like we have a great chance to win. All I worry about is health.
 
Enscheff said:
To put these numbers in perspective a bit...

Last year, DeGrom and Bauer led all qualified SPs with a HR/FB rate of 6.3%, and both had career years.

DeGrom had a HR/FB rate of 16.1% in 2017, and is sitting at 15.6% this year.

Bauer had a HR/FB rate of 16.1% in 2017, and a rate of 13.6% this year.

So yes, it's possible for guys to get lucky and sustain an unsustainable rate for a full season. That's usually how a guy has a career season, and it's important to understand why certain performances are unlikely to be repeated going forward. That is accomplished by understanding which stats are predictive, and which ones aren't.
Click to expand...

HR/FB rates have gone through the roof, so I hesitate to point to multi-year periods as recently as five years ago where a great pitcher would generate a multi-season run of low HR/FB rates (below 10). It used to happen. Not sure it is possible given the juiced ball and current approach by hitters.
 
I've seen or heard multiple executives and evaluators insist that Soroka is a genuine student of the game who out prepares everyone else. Assuming it is true, that is a factor that can't be easily quantified and could certainly result in him outperforming his peripherals consistently.
 
Jaw said:
I've seen or heard multiple executives and evaluators insist that Soroka is a genuine student of the game who out prepares everyone else. Assuming it is true, that is a factor that can't be easily quantified and could certainly result in him outperforming his peripherals consistently.
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Command is also a factor. When you consistently hit your spots on the corners with movement hitters will always struggle to make solid contact.

Wonder if pitch/fx data shows concentration of pitches in specified areas of the zone.
 
I think we’re all fully aware that Soroka is not going to post a 1.01 ERA, have a .203 BABIP, and have an 87.5% LOB in the end.

What can however be debated at least some is the HR/9. With sinkerballers, it’s usually going to be lower. I’d say he regresses to a good but not as insane 0.6-0.8, but in the juiced ball era, do we really know what the norm would be now with a good sinkerballer?

Either way he might be able to be a DIPS beater overall with his smarts but not by “this” much.
 
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