GDT: 06/18/22 Braves vs Wrigley Field

Hulavol said:
The Mets aren’t better than us. Good lord man.
We will have them in the rear view in short order.

Lost two games and the sky is back to falling…..

Even for you- that’s a silly take!
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Maybe not, but they missing 2 of the best pitchers in baseball, and they up 6.5 games on us. They're gonna get those 2 pitchers back soon. We very well may overtake them... we should.
 
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VirginiaBrave said:
This is why I don't buy into analytics. No matter how hard the balls were hit a loss is a loss. A good number of these metrics are meaningless to the point it is silly.
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What’s silly is your level of comprehension of what these numbers mean.

Those hits were real, and the resulting loss was real. However, losing due to a bunch of flukey weakly hit balls means it was a loss that’s unlikely to happen again.

So those stats are used for predictions. You know…that thing stats are useful for.
 
Matt Olson at 1.0 fWAR 66 games in. He's on pace for a 2.5 fWAR. I know I've beaten this horse to death, did cpr on the horse, and then beat it to death again, but he's really not anything close to what we traded for SO FAR. For the love of God Matt, do something!

Maybe he's a slow starter. In the short season, he was only at 0.6 fWAR.
 
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msstate7 said:
Matt Olson at 1.0 fWAR 66 games in. He's on pace for a 2.5 fWAR. I know I've beaten this horse to death, did cpr on the horse, and then beat it to death again, but he's really not anything close to what we traded for SO FAR. For the love of God Matt, do something!
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He did slam his helmet on the ground in frustration yesterday. I haven’t seen that fire from him all season.
 
msstate7 said:
Matt Olson at 1.0 fWAR 66 games in. He's on pace for a 2.5 fWAR. I know I've beaten this horse to death, did cpr on the horse, and then beat it to death again, but he's really not anything close to what we traded for SO FAR. For the love of God Matt, do something!
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And then every time I come in and tell you that he has a .242 BA to go along with a .345 OBP, and both those values are right in line with his career mark of .251 and .347.

The difference with Olson right now vs the rest of his career is a .433 SLG vs his career .502 mark. And that 70 points of missing SLG is almost all due to a career low 36% fly ball rate leading to fewer HRs.

So the Braves got exactly who they thought, minus some fly balls that aren’t going over the fence. The fact may be that the As are smart enough to help Olson get the ball in the air, and nobody on the Braves can figure it out.
 
Enscheff said:
And then every time I come in and tell you that he has a .242 BA to go along with a .345 OBP, and both those values are right in line with his career mark of .251 and .347.

The difference with Olson right now vs the rest of his career is a .433 SLG vs his career .502 mark. And that 70 points of missing SLG is almost all due to a career low 36% fly ball rate leading to fewer HRs.

So the Braves got exactly who they thought, minus some fly balls that aren’t going over the fence. The fact may be that the As are smart enough to help Olson get the ball in the air, and nobody on the Braves can figure it out.
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The low fWAR isn't just the bat. He's cost the braves 3 runs (2 for fried, 1 for wright) this week.
 
My bold prediction for the week...

The south (Atlanta included) will see a record level heat wave this week. This crazy heat is gonna bring an Olson power streak. I think he goes off this week against giants and dodgers.
 
Speaking of the upcoming week, strider is gonna get a big time test - scheduled to face giants and dodgers.
 
msstate7 said:
The low fWAR isn't just the bat. He's cost the braves 3 runs (2 for fried, 1 for wright) this week.
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Yeah, the defense is inexplicable. I’ve never seen anything quite like it. Granted, I didn’t see him play much with the As, but all anyone ever talked about was how amazing his defense was. With the Braves he looks like a converted catcher out there who just bought his glove a few days ago.
 
Enscheff said:
And then every time I come in and tell you that he has a .242 BA to go along with a .345 OBP, and both those values are right in line with his career mark of .251 and .347.

The difference with Olson right now vs the rest of his career is a .433 SLG vs his career .502 mark. And that 70 points of missing SLG is almost all due to a career low 36% fly ball rate leading to fewer HRs.

So the Braves got exactly who they thought, minus some fly balls that aren’t going over the fence. The fact may be that the As are smart enough to help Olson get the ball in the air, and nobody on the Braves can figure it out.
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I think at least part of the fly ball problem is that his launch angle is lower than previous years. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/matt-olson/14344/stats?position=1B
 
msstate7 said:
Harris...
.373 wOBA, .316 xwoba
.400 babip

I really hope he doesn't have a really dry spell coming
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Some of his stats look better over the last 8 games. Launch angle and EV have drastically improved. Ground ball rate is still high at 47.8% but better than the near 59% it was in the first 12 games.
 
Enscheff said:
Well, yes, that’s what increasing launch angle means…more fly balls.

For some reason he’s not elevating the ball, and hopefully that’s not a trick only the As know how to help Olson with.
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If it's an A's trick, we better hire whoever knows it. 8 year deal
 
Enscheff said:
What’s silly is your level of comprehension of what these numbers mean.

Those hits were real, and the resulting loss was real. However, losing due to a bunch of flukey weakly hit balls means it was a loss that’s unlikely to happen again.

So those stats are used for predictions. You know…that thing stats are useful for.
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To me they are nothing more than a way for a nerd to make themselves feel good about a loss.
 
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