salmagundy
Boras' Client
This is a different Smith we're seeing tonight. Throwing the fastball like a man with something to prove.
Best 9th we've seen this year IMO.
Best 9th we've seen this year IMO.
GDT: 26 April 2021...Cubs vs Braves...7:10 est
- Thread starter jsebe10
- Start date
msstate7
Well-known member
Yup. I was more than fine nibbling once he fell behind
um no
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
So I was thinking after yesterday. What if snit moved some of our slumping guys to lead off since that position somehow makes players better. Wouldn’t letting ozuna hit lead off for a week be worth it.
msstate7
Well-known member
Hopefully about the time that pache figures it out
A quick update on Freeman and the Unlucky Boys
Freeman
WOBA: 352
xWOBA: 435
Albies
WOBA: 277
xWOBA: 381
Swanson
WOBA: 267
xWOBA 333
d'Arnaud
WOBA: 259
xWOBA: 323
Ozuna
WOBA: 254
xWOBA: 295
Ozuna has been bad regardless but eventually these hits will fall. Braves as a whole are 5th in the league in runs and 4th in WOBA. Offense has been **** for the entire sport so far this year.
Freeman
WOBA: 352
xWOBA: 435
Albies
WOBA: 277
xWOBA: 381
Swanson
WOBA: 267
xWOBA 333
d'Arnaud
WOBA: 259
xWOBA: 323
Ozuna
WOBA: 254
xWOBA: 295
Ozuna has been bad regardless but eventually these hits will fall. Braves as a whole are 5th in the league in runs and 4th in WOBA. Offense has been **** for the entire sport so far this year.
msstate7
Well-known member
Your last sentence is one I need to bank in my memory. I really only watch the braves these days so I have no reference points.
Yeah. It's early but MLB as a whole has a 307 WOBA so far. It will pick up. Or maybe it won't and they will have to move the mound.
Yeah that's not helping.
K% as a whole is up to 24.5% too.
It's funny. After the crackdown on steroids offense started to decline hard starting in 2011 and league offense reached as low as a league wide WOBA of 310 in 2014. They started juicing the balls around the all-star break of 2015 to pump up the offense and boy did it. Now they are going to stop and have **** offense again?
Doesn't help that pitchers on average are way better than they were even a decade ago.
This is all important to remember every time someone on these boards has a melt down over the offense, complaining about Ks and whatever else they incorrectly think is the problem. The fact of the matter is the Braves at 4th in the NL in BB%, and have the 6th best K%. The problem is the .253 BABIP, that is easily worst in the NL.
All that "bad luck" offensively, and the Braves have still scored the 5th most runs in the NL. These losses are real, and have a real negative impact on the playoff chances, but the predictive stats tell us the Braves offense is just fine and is very likely to score a lot of runs over the next 140 games.
The pitching has been a problem. Losing Fried and getting no progress out of Soroka has been a big issue, as the Braves SP are last in the NL in fWAR. As much as folks like to whine about the BP, it isn't the reason the Braves are losing, with their fWAR being 4th in the NL...and most folks over estimate the BP's contributions to winning/losing because their contributions happen at the end of the game. Almost like they can't wrap their heads around the fact that a run scored in the 3rd inning is just as valuable as a run scored in the 9th.
So the "fix" for the Braves is to keep running out the same good lineup, keep the BP from being overworked, and get guys like Fried and Soroka back in the rotation contributing as expected.
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Coincidentally, FG just covered this:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sundays-humiliation-highlights-braves-slow-start/
Albies "should be" hitting .314. Freeman "should be" hitting .307. Swanson "should be" hitting .240. TDA "should be" hitting .252.
The only guy truly struggling in a worrisome way is Ozuna, and might be yet another cautionary tale of why it's unwise to sign bat-only players to multi year deals in their 30s.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sundays-humiliation-highlights-braves-slow-start/
Albies "should be" hitting .314. Freeman "should be" hitting .307. Swanson "should be" hitting .240. TDA "should be" hitting .252.
The only guy truly struggling in a worrisome way is Ozuna, and might be yet another cautionary tale of why it's unwise to sign bat-only players to multi year deals in their 30s.
NYCBrave
Well-known member
I was actually thinking about Ozuna and the signing. We were all ecstatic at the time of it.
But remember how he showed up to camp last off season out of shape, and needed encouragement from his wife and kids to get in shape? We all know the rest is history.
Who knows what happened this off season. But there is a reason all GM's including AA held off for a long time before making an offer. It's quite possible AA knew this exact outcome was likely but was left with no other choice but to take the risk. We'll see what happens from here.
I think he'll be OK in the long run, and the deal won't actually hurt anything - if it doesn't cause them to be short on resources for re-signing Freeman - as long as Freddie is still OK defensively for the first 2-3 years of any extension. That said, if something happens before next season is over that causes Freddie to come up gimpy and need to just be a hitter it could obviously be something that ties AA's hands badly.