GDT 4/17/24: Braves at Astros - Afternoon Sweep Vibes

Braves are 4-3 in one run games, outperforming our expected wins by one game.
We have had some significant injuries and some early slumps. We are only 13th in HRs. We lead baseball in batting average and are second in OPS, and have the highest run differential in the NL even after the Mets blowout where we punted and used Guillorme to pitch an inning.

We have the number one seed in the NL and best record currently in all of baseball.
 
12-5 despite giving a game away vs Phillies. Losing a series to the Mets. Losing a game to the woeful White Sox. Strider going down. Fried getting shelled. And Acuna turning into a slap hitter.
 
I just realized that the Braves are not even in the top 10 in HR, yet lead baseball in SLG by a healthy margin. Pretty impressive.

I wonder which of the unsustainables will correct first: Acuna hitting like a "true leadoff hitter"? Fried pitching like he wants to make league minimum next season? Or Arcia playing like the best shortstop in the league? Ozuna hitting like...well, in 2020?
 
Strike3urout said:
I just realized that the Braves are not even in the top 10 in HR, yet lead baseball in SLG by a healthy margin. Pretty impressive.

I wonder which of the unsustainables will correct first: Acuna hitting like a "true leadoff hitter"? Fried pitching like he wants to make league minimum next season? Or Arcia playing like the best shortstop in the league? Ozuna hitting like...well, in 2020?
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I feel Acuna is about to go off.
 
From the sunshiney side of homer street:

Arcia and Ozuna are here to stay. They are all-stars and going to have monster seasons.

And Acuna is going to bust it MVP big.
 
Strike3urout said:
I just realized that the Braves are not even in the top 10 in HR, yet lead baseball in SLG by a healthy margin. Pretty impressive.

I wonder which of the unsustainables will correct first: Acuna hitting like a "true leadoff hitter"? Fried pitching like he wants to make league minimum next season? Or Arcia playing like the best shortstop in the league? Ozuna hitting like...well, in 2020?
Click to expand...

It's definately Arcia. 419 wOBA vs 292 xwOBA.
 
Strike3urout said:
I just realized that the Braves are not even in the top 10 in HR, yet lead baseball in SLG by a healthy margin. Pretty impressive.

I wonder which of the unsustainables will correct first: Acuna hitting like a "true leadoff hitter"? Fried pitching like he wants to make league minimum next season? Or Arcia playing like the best shortstop in the league? Ozuna hitting like...well, in 2020?
Click to expand...

Probably Acuña. Arcia is the best defensive SS in baseball. Ozuna is just doing what he did last year. Fried I'm starting to have concerns about.
 
Slippyjms said:
Probably Acuña. Arcia is the best defensive SS in baseball. Ozuna is just doing what he did last year. Fried I'm starting to have concerns about.
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Come on.. it is already a simple fact that Fried got mad and is now good again.

but seriously, I did a little digging and something is going on with his fastball.. velo is still there, but it is straighter than ever and is the pitch that is getting killed. not sure if there is something mechanical going on or if there is a blister that is affecting his spin, but he is getting murdered on his 4 seam and less used cutter.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Come on.. it is already a simple fact that Fried got mad and is now good again.

but seriously, I did a little digging and something is going on with his fastball.. velo is still there, but it is straighter than ever and is the pitch that is getting killed. not sure if there is something mechanical going on or if there is a blister that is affecting his spin, but he is getting murdered on his 4 seam and less used cutter.
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I'm more concerned about the forearm strain he had last year and if what we're seeing is his elbow about to give out.
 
Somebody probably very glad fried didn’t take any extension offers….and somebody (and their agent) probably very mad at themselves for not taking any extension offers…..

Good thing there’s some new headline every day about one of the youngsters having a dominant start down in farmland …we may need a coupla’ of John Smoltz and Steve Averys level call ups….
 
Slippyjms said:
I'm more concerned about the forearm strain he had last year and if what we're seeing is his elbow about to give out.
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hard to know. I would think by 4 starts if his forearm was barking, he would have said something. Then again, it is a contract year and he surely doesn't want to hit FA rehabbing a 2nd TJ surgery.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Come on.. it is already a simple fact that Fried got mad and is now good again.

but seriously, I did a little digging and something is going on with his fastball.. velo is still there, but it is straighter than ever and is the pitch that is getting killed. not sure if there is something mechanical going on or if there is a blister that is affecting his spin, but he is getting murdered on his 4 seam and less used cutter.
Click to expand...

Spin rate is still there too. 2024 is actually the 2nd highest FA spin rate he has ever recorded, but it has resulted in the 2nd lowest amount of "rise" he's ever had. That tells me something he's doing is affecting the spin axis on the FA.

As always, Fried's best heater is the 2-seamer, and hopefully he adjusts the pitch mix accordingly. That flat 4-seamer is pretty much the flattest it's ever been right now.
 
thewupk said:
It's definately Arcia. 419 wOBA vs 292 xwOBA.
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Agreed.

Acuna's problem is simply that he reverted to his career norm K rate of 25% (11.4% last year), and isn't hitting the ball in the air. His 22% FB rate is by far the lowest it's ever been. Additionally, 27% of those FBs have been on the infield, which is by far the highest it's ever been. The great news is Acuna at his worst is still an .800 OPS guy, and the FB rate is climbing: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/r...rray=&start=2024&end=2024&rtype=single&gt1=15

Rather than wasting effort trying to be a lead off hitter and steal bases, Acuna should be laser focused on 40%+ FB rate that will lead to 50+ HRs. That will lead to the 10+ win seasons he is capable of producing.
 
Enscheff said:
Spin rate is still there too. 2024 is actually the 2nd highest FA spin rate he has ever recorded, but it has resulted in the 2nd lowest amount of "rise" he's ever had. That tells me something he's doing is affecting the spin axis on the FA.

As always, Fried's best heater is the 2-seamer, and hopefully he adjusts the pitch mix accordingly. That flat 4-seamer is pretty much the flattest it's ever been right now.
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man you can get down rabbit holes that never end with savant. I started looking at other pitchers who went down with TJ (verlander, Degrom, ..) and how their pitches changed and it told me absolutely nothing concrete. I think you would need to be able to have all the data in SAS, python, or Oracle and be able to run queries to be able to even begin to remotely build some sort of correlation.

I think I just have to assume he is healthy and just not 100% ready on the season since he had such an abbreviated spring.
 
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