Sexy. And that makes sense. with the off day folty will slide into touki's spot and Wilson is relief depth until then.
GDT 4-21 : The Night of The Max Easter Massacre
- Thread starter Hulavol
- Start date
Sexy. And that makes sense. with the off day folty will slide into touki's spot and Wilson is relief depth until then.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
At this point, we've got to do something about the pen. So maybe this is the something! LOL
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
I know a guy.
is he a good BUD of yours?
AerchAngel
<B>Secretary of Statistics</B>
zbhargrove
Well-known member
A healthy Folty and Soroka can really give this team a boost.
This is the rotation we've been waiting to see.
When some of Fried's more unsustainable numbers (5% HR/FB rate, .247 BABIP, 86% LOB) normalize he will be closer to the 4 ERA pitcher his xFIP suggests, but he looks like he's going to be a solid SP going forward as long as the control (2.42 BB/9) is as improved as early results have shown.
I was clamoring for him to add a SI, but it looks like the addition of the SL is serving him just as well.
Oklahomabrave
Anytime Now Frankie...
Seems that all the is likely but his GB% mixed with our defense might help suppress his era a bit.
Fried's GB rate is 55.3% while the MLB average is 42.5%.
I agree that his CU will generate a lot of GBs, and it's already doing exactly that.
All the other numbers are a function of luck that is very unlikely to continue long term, especially the HR/FB rate...just like Newk's early season luck in 2018 that had some folks around here calling him better than Folty. Remember that glorious misunderstanding of unsustainability?
I explained why Newk's success was unsustainable. I explained why JD's slow start was unsustainable. Now I'm explaining why Fried's success is unsustainable. Logic certainly has never stopped folks from making incorrect assessments on a player's value in the past, so it won't stop folks from proclaiming Fried an Ace right now either.
Max Fried
8:27 May be one of the 5 best pitchers in baseball...T or F?
Mark P
8:28 Lots of potential but come on, false.
Last edited:
Oklahomabrave
Anytime Now Frankie...
Yeah I agree with all the sustainability aspects, I certainly don’t think his GB% suppresses it to its current degree, just that it gives me hope he could have an ERA slightly better than his other numbers since he’d benefit the most from our infield defense.
And yeah I never have personally bought into Newk at all being more than a 4/5.
Bottom line is, with that rotation, you should go into every game with a good chance to win and expect a competitive start from every member.
AerchAngel
<B>Secretary of Statistics</B>
AerchAngel
<B>Secretary of Statistics</B>
This I have no doubt and they don't walk a lot of people unless they get squeezed like Fried last night.
Some pitchers can sustain results better than their xFIP/FIP. Julio was (is?) a perfect example, and my theory is he outperformed his xFIP/FIP by getting extra outs in high leverage spots with his excellent pick-off move.
Here's a decent write-up on ERA-FIP variance:
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/7/28/9040603/era-minus-fip-regression-starting-pitcher
The money quote:
most of the difference between ERA and FIP -- for qualified starting pitchers in the first half of this season -- by looking at their BABIP and LOB%
A lot of GBs can certainly help lower that BABIP, but usually by around half a run over the long term.
Good defense is mostly responsible for LOB%, which is why that credit isn't given to the pitcher in WAR calculations.
If he adds an above average SI (which I think his low spin rate supports) and the control remains plus, he is an Ace...no question in my mind.
That SI/CU/SL/CH arsenal with some spotted up FAs and plus control would be deadly from a LHP. The potential to add other impact pitches is why I was always hesitant to trade Fried.
Last edited:
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Hopefully he can add one, but even with his current arsenal I think he can be a 2 if he can maintain a respectable walk rate. Him and Soroka give me a lot of hope for the current rotation to fill out nicely.
Who was the last true ace we had? Maddux? Huddy maybe? It seems like we’re always talking about how this guy’s a 2 or 3/4 but we can never find an ace.
