GDT 5/23/21: Pirates vs Braves - Sunday Funday

I don't put a lot of stock in strength of schedule in baseball. Baseball seems to be when you play teams more than who you play.

ETA... not justifying this record bc it's awful. Enscheff laid out the reason for record
 
Slippyjms said:
Is there data on what a player’s expected BABIP should be given where each ball is hit?
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They don't have an expected BABIP that I know of but his expected batting average coming into today was .262 compared to an actual .315

But enscheff is right in regards to xWOBA as that is a complete offensive stat. It was .360 coming into today which is very good and will only go up after todays game. Acuna was right. Kid is playing at a superstar level right now even with him benefiting from some luck. At least one our hitters are as the rest of our team has been very unlucky in regards to balls in play.
 
Enscheff said:
That’s exactly what xwOBA is telling us. It takes all a player’s batted balls (exit velocity, launch angle, direction) and compares it to what happens when all other players hit balls like that. Once we know how all those types of batted balls typically end up, an expected value for every type of batted ball can be calculated...that’s the expected value.

That expected value allows us to determine if a guy is hitting the ball well and getting unlucky with the results, or hitting it not so well and getting lucky with the results.

Over a long sample the “luck” tends to even out, and players tend to have results that match the expectations based on the quality of their contact. That’s what makes xwOBA a predictive stat.
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Gotcha. So basically a high or low BABIP wouldn’t be flukey as long as it is in line with the players xwOBA.
 
msstate7 said:
Never said he wouldn't. Just posted that as proof of what UNC said.

Is Acuna swinging for the fences too much? Might be
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Was more referring to the comment you were replying to: “he will be fine but it’ll be nice to see him stabilize.” He is perfectly stable and going through the same stretches every ball player goes through.
 
Come on now... get these 2 outs.
Martin 8th
Smith 9th

Smith has to pitch today. He hasn't pitched since Wednesday
 
Having Martin and Greene back should really pick the bullpen up big time. One more good reliever at the deadline will make it good like last year again.
 
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